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The labor market effects of the China Syndrome: Evidence from South Korean manufacturing

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  • Jaerim Choi
  • Mingzhi Xu

Abstract

We evaluate the direct impact of China trade shock on the Korean labour market following the approach of Acemoglu, Autor, Dorn, Hanson, and Price (Journal of Labor Economics, 2016, 34, S1). Using firm‐ and industry‐level data for the period 1993–2013, our direct estimates imply that the net employment effect of the China shock in the manufacturing sector is the creation of 0.52 million jobs. The positive impact is mostly driven by China's rising demand for intermediate inputs and capital goods from Korea to support its export expansion to the global economy. The import‐competition channel plays a negligible role in manufacturing employment because it creates temporary jobs that merely compensate for the loss in permanent jobs. By contrast, over the same period, the average wage declined by 2.4%, and income inequality, measured as the gap between the high‐ and low‐income quantile, grew substantially in manufacturing. In addition, we find that the direct effect of China shock lowers labour market concentration by shifting workers from big firms to small‐ and medium‐sized firms.

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  • Jaerim Choi & Mingzhi Xu, 2020. "The labor market effects of the China Syndrome: Evidence from South Korean manufacturing," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(11), pages 3039-3087, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:43:y:2020:i:11:p:3039-3087
    DOI: 10.1111/twec.12893
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    Cited by:

    1. Kozo Kiyota & Sawako Maruyama & Mina Taniguchi, 2021. "The China syndrome: A cross‐country evidence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(9), pages 2758-2792, September.
    2. NI Bin & KATO Hayato & LIU Yang, 2020. "Does It Matter Where You Invest? The Impact of FDI on Domestic Job Creation and Destruction," Discussion papers 20008, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Akira Sasahara, 2022. "The Empirics of the China Trade Shock: A Summary of Estimation Methods and A Literature Review," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2022-008, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    4. Feiyang Shi, 2022. "Import Shock and Local Labour Market Outcomes: A Sino-Indian Case Study," IHEID Working Papers 04-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    5. Yang Liang, 2021. "Job creation and job destruction: The effect of trade shocks on U.S. manufacturing employment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(10), pages 2909-2949, October.
    6. Yu, Chunjiao & Zhao, Jiaqi & Cheng, Shixiong, 2023. "GVC trade and business cycle synchronization between China and belt-road countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    7. Shuhei Kainuma & Yukiko U. Saito, 2022. "China's impact on regional employment: Propagation through input–output linkages and co‐location patterns," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(11), pages 3559-3601, November.
    8. HAYAKAWA Kazunobu & ITO Tadashi & URATA Shujiro, 2022. "Impacts of Increased Chinese Imports on Japan’s Labor Market: Firm and Regional Aspects," Discussion papers 22037, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    9. Ping Hua, 2022. "Impacts of global value chains' participation and domestic consumption on manufacturing employment in China," Working Papers hal-03840490, HAL.
    10. HAYAKAWA Kazunobu & URATA Shujiro & YAMANOUCHI Kenta, 2022. "Import Competition from China and Markup Dispersion," Discussion papers 22031, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    11. Bin Ni & Hayato Kato & Yang Liu, 2023. "Does it matter where you invest? The impact of foreign direct investments on domestic job creation and destruction," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(1), pages 135-152, January.
    12. Lee, Dongyeol, 2021. "Propagation of economic shocks through vertical and trade linkages in Korea: An empirical analysis," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    13. Xuefeng Qian & Kalsoom Rafique & Yingna Wu, 2020. "Flying with the Dragon: Estimating Developing Countries’ Gains from China's Imports," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 28(5), pages 1-25, September.
    14. Jiyoung Kim & Sun Go, 2022. "Exports to China and Local Employment in South Korea," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 30(2), pages 197-214, March.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General

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