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Globalization, Trade Imbalances, and Labor Market Adjustment

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  • Rafael Dix-Carneiro
  • João Paulo Pessoa
  • Ricardo Reyes-Heroles
  • Sharon Traiberman

Abstract

We argue that modeling trade imbalances is crucial for understanding transitional dynamics in response to globalization shocks. We build and estimate a general equilibrium, multicountry, multisector model of trade with two key ingredients: (i) endogenous trade imbalances arising from households’ consumption and saving decisions; (ii) labor market frictions across and within sectors. We use our model to perform several empirical exercises. We find that the “China shock” accounted for 28% of the decline in U.S. manufacturing between 2000 and 2014—1.65 times the magnitude predicted from a model imposing balanced trade. A concurrent rise in U.S. service employment led to a negligible aggregate unemployment response. We benchmark our model’s predictions for the gains from trade against the popular ACR sufficient-statistics approach. We find that our predictions for the long-run gains from trade and consumption dynamics significantly diverge.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael Dix-Carneiro & João Paulo Pessoa & Ricardo Reyes-Heroles & Sharon Traiberman, 2023. "Globalization, Trade Imbalances, and Labor Market Adjustment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(2), pages 1109-1171.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:138:y:2023:i:2:p:1109-1171.
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    1. Globalization, Trade Imbalances, and Labor Market Adjustment
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2021-04-05 21:16:45

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    Cited by:

    1. Rafael Dix-Carneiro, 2019. "Trade and Informality in the Presence of Labor Market Frictions and Regulations," 2019 Meeting Papers 144, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Dias, Lucas Cardoso Corrêa & Cícero, Vinicius Curti, 2024. "Donkey business: trade, resource exploitation, crime and violence in a contestable market," OSF Preprints qreum, Center for Open Science.
    3. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson, 2021. "On the Persistence of the China Shock," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 52(2 (Fall)), pages 381-476.
    4. Dorn, David & Levell, Peter, 2021. "Trade and Inequality in Europe and the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 16780, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Stephen J. Redding, 2020. "Trade and Geography," NBER Working Papers 27821, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Lastauskas, Povilas & Proškutė, Aurelija & Žaldokas, Alminas, 2023. "How do firms adjust when trade stops?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 287-307.
    7. Swati Dhingra & Rebecca Freeman & Hanwei Huang, 2023. "The Impact of Non‐tariff Barriers on Trade and Welfare," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(357), pages 140-177, January.
    8. Mariarosaria Comunale & Justas Dainauskas & Povilas Lastauskas, 2021. "What explains excess trade persistence? A theory of habits in the supply chains," CAMA Working Papers 2021-11, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    9. Traiberman, Sharon & Rotemberg, Martin, 2023. "Precautionary protectionism," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    10. Dix-Carneiro, Rafael & Kovak, Brian K., 2023. "Globalization and Inequality in Latin America," IZA Discussion Papers 16363, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Andres Rodriguez-Clare & Mauricio Ulate & Jose P. Vasquez, 2020. "New-Keynesian Trade: Understanding the Employment and Welfare Effects of Trade Shocks," Working Papers 265, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    12. Xiangxu Meng & Dian Wang, 2024. "Income Distribution Effects of the Belt and Road Initiative," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-16, June.
    13. Max Sina Knicker & Karl Naumann-Woleske & Michael Benzaquen, 2024. "The Structure of Occupational Mobility in France," Papers 2407.14179, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    14. Fadinger, Harald & Herkenhoff, Philipp & Schymik, Jan, 2024. "Quantifying the Germany shock: Structural labor-market reforms and spillovers in a currency union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    15. Wang, Bei & Qian, Xuefeng & Li, Ying & Cao, Jia, 2024. "Pro-poor consumption effects of trade liberalization: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    16. Caliendo, Lorenzo, 2023. "A comment on: Globalization, trade imbalances and inequality," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 73-76.
    17. Fadinger, Harald & Herkenhoff, Philipp & Schymik, Jan, 2024. "Reprint of: Quantifying the Germany shock: Structural labor-market reforms and spillovers in a currency union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).

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