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Tariff Pass-Through at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy

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  • Alberto Cavallo
  • Gita Gopinath
  • Brent Neiman
  • Jenny Tang

Abstract

We use microdata collected at the border and the store to characterize the price impact of recent US trade policy on importers, exporters, and consumers. At the border, import tariff pass-through is much higher than exchange rate pass-through. Chinese exporters did not lower their dollar prices by much, despite the recent appreciation of the dollar. By contrast, US exporters significantly lowered prices affected by foreign retaliatory tariffs. In US stores, the price impact is more limited, suggesting that retail margins have fallen. Our results imply that, so far, the tariffs' incidence has fallen in large part on US firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Cavallo & Gita Gopinath & Brent Neiman & Jenny Tang, 2021. "Tariff Pass-Through at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 19-34, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aerins:v:3:y:2021:i:1:p:19-34
    DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20190536
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms

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