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Unemployment effects of the German minimum wage in an equilibrium job search model

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  • Blömer, Maximilian J.
  • Guertzgen, Nicole
  • Pohlan, Laura
  • Stichnoth, Holger
  • van den Berg, Gerard J.

Abstract

We structurally estimate an equilibrium search model using German administrative data and use the model for counterfactual analyses of a uniform minimum wage. The model with worker and firm heterogeneity does not restrict the sign of employment effects a priori; it allows for different job offer arrival rates for the employed and the unemployed and lets firms optimally choose their recruiting intensity. We find that unemployment is a non-monotonic function of the minimum wage level. Effects differ strongly by labor market segment defined by region, skill, and permanent worker ability.

Suggested Citation

  • Blömer, Maximilian J. & Guertzgen, Nicole & Pohlan, Laura & Stichnoth, Holger & van den Berg, Gerard J., 2024. "Unemployment effects of the German minimum wage in an equilibrium job search model," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:labeco:v:91:y:2024:i:c:s0927537124001222
    DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2024.102626
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    1. Link, Sebastian, 2024. "The price and employment response of firms to the introduction of minimum wages," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    2. Bossler, Mario & Gürtzgen, Nicole & Lochner, Benjamin & Betzl, Ute & Feist, Lisa & Wegmann, Jakob, 2018. "Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf Betriebe und Unternehmen," IAB-Forschungsbericht 201804, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    3. Monika Köppl-Turyna & Michael Christl & Dénes Kucsera, 2019. "Beschäftigungseffekte von Mindestlöhnen: Die Dosis macht das Gift," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(02), pages 40-46, January.
    4. Nicole Gürtzgen, 2021. "Eine höhere Reichweite und heterogene Ausgangslagen erschweren die Vorhersage von Beschäftigungseffekten," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 101(12), pages 926-929, December.
    5. Petra E. Todd & Weilong Zhang, 2022. "Distributional Effects of Local Minimum Wages: A Spatial Job Search Approach," NBER Working Papers 30668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Arne Heise, 2022. "Mindestlöhne, Beschäftigung und die „Harmonie der Täuschungen“," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 48(1), pages 83-107.
    7. Fedorets, Alexandra & Shupe, Cortnie, 2021. "Great expectations: Reservation wages and minimum wage reform," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 397-419.
    8. Breda, Thomas & Haywood, Luke & Wang, Haomin, 2024. "Equilibrium effects of payroll tax reductions and optimal policy design," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    9. Schmid, Ramona, 2022. "Mind the gap: Effects of the national minimum wage on the gender wage gap in Germany," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 06-2022, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    10. Schmid, Ramona, 2023. "Mind the Gap: Effects of the National Minimum Wage on the Gender Wage Gap in Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277646, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Di Nola, Alessandro & Haywood, Luke & Wang, Haomin, 2023. "Gendered effects of the minimum wage," Working Papers 14, University of Konstanz, Cluster of Excellence "The Politics of Inequality. Perceptions, Participation and Policies".

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    Keywords

    Monopsony; Wages; Employment; Productivity; Structural estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy
    • J42 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Monopsony; Segmented Labor Markets
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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