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Employment effects of introducing a minimum wage: The case of Germany

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  • Holtemöller, Oliver
  • Pohle, Felix

Abstract

This paper contributes to the empirical literature on the employment effects of minimum wages. We analysed the introduction of a statutory minimum wage in Germany in 2015 exploiting cross-sectional variation of the minimum wage affectedness. We construct two variables that measure the affectedness for approximately 300 state-industry combinations based on aggregate monthly income data. The estimation strategy consists of two steps. We test for (unidentified) structural breaks in a model with cross-section specific trends to control for state-industry specific developments prior to 2015. In a second step, we test whether the trend deviations are correlated with the minimum wage affectedness. To identify the minimum wage effect on employment, we assume that the minimum wage introduction is exogenous. Our results point towards a negative effect on marginal employment and a positive effect on socially insured employment. Furthermore, we analyse if the increase in socially insured employment is systematically related to the reduction of marginal employment but do not detect evidence.

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  • Holtemöller, Oliver & Pohle, Felix, 2017. "Employment effects of introducing a minimum wage: The case of Germany," IWH Discussion Papers 28/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:282017
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    Cited by:

    1. Friedrich Martin, 2020. "Using Occupations to Evaluate the Employment Effects of the German Minimum Wage," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 240(2-3), pages 269-294, April.
    2. Marco Caliendo & Nico Pestel & Rebecca Olthaus, 2023. "Long-Term Employment Effects of the Minimum Wage in Germany: New Data and Estimators," Papers 2310.15964, arXiv.org.
    3. Liu, Guangqiang & Lv, Lingli, 2022. "Government regulation on corporate compensation and innovation: Evidence from China's minimum wage policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    4. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Duncan Roth & Tobias Seidel, 2022. "Optimal minimum wages," CEP Discussion Papers dp1823, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Ariani & Devanto Shasta Pratomo & Marlina Ekawaty & David Kaluge, 2024. "Absorption of Formal and Informal Sector Workers through the Minimum Wage: Studies in Indonesia," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 128-143.
    6. Foltas, Alexander, 2024. "Inefficient forecast narratives: A BERT-based approach," Working Papers 45, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
    7. Pestel, Nico & Bonin, Holger & Isphording, Ingo E. & Gregory, Terry & Caliendo, Marco, 2020. "Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf Beschäftigung und Arbeitslosigkeit," IZA Research Reports 95, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Moritz Drechsel-Grau, 2023. "Employment and Reallocation Effects of Higher Minimum Wages," CESifo Working Paper Series 10412, CESifo.
    9. Rashmi Ahuja & Shrimoyee Ganguly & Rajat Acharyya & Sugata Marjit, 2024. "Labour-Market Reform, Skill-Based Exports and Employment: Some Unconventional Results Under Finite Change in General Equilibrium," CESifo Working Paper Series 11455, CESifo.
    10. Seok, Byoung Hoon & You, Hye Mi, 2022. "Macroeconomic impacts of increasing the minimum wage: The case of Korea," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    11. repec:iab:iabjlr:v:53:i:1:p:art.10 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Caliendo Marco & Wittbrodt Linda & Schröder Carsten, 2019. "The Causal Effects of the Minimum Wage Introduction in Germany – An Overview," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 257-292, August.
    13. Laetitia Lebihan, 2023. "Minimum wages and health: evidence from European countries," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 85-107, March.
    14. Bruttel, Oliver, 2019. "The effects of the new statutory minimum wage in Germany: a first assessment of the evidence," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 53(1), pages .10(1-13).
    15. Oliver Bruttel, 2019. "The effects of the new statutory minimum wage in Germany: a first assessment of the evidence," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 53(1), pages 1-13, December.
    16. Medrano-Adán, Luis & Salas-Fumás, Vicente, 2023. "Do minimum wages deliver what they promise? Effects of minimum wage on employment, output, and income inequality from occupational choice theory," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 366-383.
    17. Roupakias, Stelios, 2022. "Employment and distributional effects of Greece’s national minimum wage," MPRA Paper 114244, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Artur Sikora, 2021. "The minimum wage in Poland and its connection to unemployment: Evaluating causality," Zeszyty Naukowe Małopolskiej Wyższej Szkoły Ekonomicznej w Tarnowie / The Malopolska School of Economics in Tarnow Research Papers Collection, Malopolska School of Economics in Tarnow, vol. 50(2), pages 65-77, June.
    19. Alfred Garloff, 2019. "Did the German Minimum Wage Reform Influence (Un)employment Growth in 2015? Evidence from Regional Data," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(3), pages 356-381, August.
    20. Friedrich Martin, 2020. "Using Occupations to Evaluate the Employment Effects of the German Minimum Wage," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 240(2-3), pages 269-294, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    minimum wage; employment effects; minimum wage affectedness; structural break model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy

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