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Decomposing Beveridge curve dynamics by correlated unobserved components

Author

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  • Klinger, Sabine

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; University of Regensburg)

  • Weber, Enzo

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; University of Regensburg)

Abstract

"Between 1979 and 2009, the German labour market moved along a Beveridge curve with changing slope that usually shifted outwards but once inwards. We employ an unobserved components model to simultaneously disentangle permanent and transitory components of matching efficiency and separation rate (shifting parameters) as well as unemployment and vacancies. Cointegration and identification are especially addressed. We find a steady overlay of structural and transitory shocks for both shifts of and movements along the curve. Thereby, the separation rate is more important than matching efficiency and the two are negatively correlated. Labour market tightness is mostly driven by stochastic trends, which leads to permanent rotations of the job creation curve, i. e. movements along the Beveridge curve." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2012. "Decomposing Beveridge curve dynamics by correlated unobserved components," IAB-Discussion Paper 201228, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201228
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    Keywords

    Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Beveridgekurve ; Arbeitslosigkeitsentwicklung ; Integrierte Erwerbsbiografien ; job turnover ; Konjunkturabhängigkeit ; labour turnover ; matching ; offene Stellen ; strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit ; Arbeitslosenquote ; 1979-2009;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
    • J69 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Other

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