IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2310.15964.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Long-Term Employment Effects of the Minimum Wage in Germany: New Data and Estimators

Author

Listed:
  • Marco Caliendo
  • Nico Pestel
  • Rebecca Olthaus

Abstract

We study the long-term effects of the 2015 German minimum wage introduction and its subsequent increases on regional employment. Using data from two waves of the Structure of Earnings Survey allows us to estimate models that account for changes in the minimum wage bite over time. While the introduction mainly affected the labour market in East Germany, the raises are also increasingly affecting low-wage regions in West Germany, such that around one third of regions have changed their (binary) treatment status over time. We apply different specifications and extensions of the classic difference-in-differences approach as well as a set of new estimators that enables for unbiased effect estimation with a staggered treatment adoption and heterogeneous treatment effects. Our results indicate a small negative effect on dependent employment of 0.5 percent, no significant effect on employment subject to social security contributions, and a significant negative effect of about 2.4 percent on marginal employment until the first quarter of 2022. The extended specifications suggest additional effects of the minimum wage increases, as well as stronger negative effects on total dependent and marginal employment for those regions that were strongly affected by the minimum wage in 2015 and 2019.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Caliendo & Nico Pestel & Rebecca Olthaus, 2023. "Long-Term Employment Effects of the Minimum Wage in Germany: New Data and Estimators," Papers 2310.15964, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2310.15964
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2310.15964
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Card, David & Krueger, Alan B, 1994. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 772-793, September.
    2. Caliendo, Marco & Fedorets, Alexandra & Preuss, Malte & Schröder, Carsten & Wittbrodt, Linda, 2018. "The short-run employment effects of the German minimum wage reform," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 46-62.
    3. Caliendo Marco & Wittbrodt Linda & Schröder Carsten, 2019. "The Causal Effects of the Minimum Wage Introduction in Germany – An Overview," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 257-292, August.
    4. Sebastian Schmitz, 2019. "The Effects of Germany's Statutory Minimum Wage on Employment and Welfare Dependency," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(3), pages 330-355, August.
    5. Cl'ement de Chaisemartin & Xavier D'Haultf{oe}uille, 2020. "Difference-in-Differences Estimators of Intertemporal Treatment Effects," Papers 2007.04267, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2024.
    6. William Wascher & David Neumark, 2000. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1362-1396, December.
    7. Holtemöller, Oliver & Pohle, Felix, 2020. "Employment effects of introducing a minimum wage: The case of Germany," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 108-121.
    8. Bernd Fitzenberger & Annabelle Doerr, 2016. "Konzeptionelle Lehren aus der ersten Evaluationsrunde der Branchenmindestlöhne in Deutschland [Conceptual lessons from the evaluation studies on sectoral minimum wages in Germany]," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 49(4), pages 329-347, December.
    9. Mario Bossler & Thorsten Schank, 2023. "Wage Inequality in Germany after the Minimum Wage Introduction," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 41(3), pages 813-857.
    10. Mario Bossler, 2016. "Mindestlohn in Deutschland, Großbritannien und in den USA [Minimum Wages in Germany, Great Britain and the US]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 96(6), pages 422-425, June.
    11. Bruttel, Oliver, 2019. "The effects of the new statutory minimum wage in Germany: a first assessment of the evidence," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 53(1), pages 1-10.
    12. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
    13. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel & Roth, Duncan & Seidel, Tobias, 2018. "The regional effects of Germany’s national minimum wage," CEPR Discussion Papers 13005, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Alfred Garloff, 2019. "Did the German Minimum Wage Reform Influence (Un)employment Growth in 2015? Evidence from Regional Data," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(3), pages 356-381, August.
    15. David Neumark & J. M. Ian Salas & William Wascher, 2014. "Revisiting the Minimum Wage—Employment Debate: Throwing Out the Baby with the Bathwater?," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 67(3_suppl), pages 608-648, May.
    16. Bachmann, Ronald & Bonin, Holger & Boockmann, Bernhard & Demir, Gökay & Felder, Rahel & Isphording, Ingo & Kalweit, René & Laub, Natalie & Vonnahme, Christina & Zimpelmann, Christian, 2020. "Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf Löhne und Arbeitszeiten: Studie im Auftrag der Mindestlohnkommission," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 222998, Fall.
    17. Goodman-Bacon, Andrew, 2021. "Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 254-277.
    18. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Roth, Duncan & Seidel, Tobias, 2018. "The regional effects of Germany’s national minimum wage," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 127-130.
    19. Sun, Liyang & Abraham, Sarah, 2021. "Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 175-199.
    20. Möller, Joachim, 2012. "Minimum wages in German industries : what does the evidence tell us so far?," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 45(3/4), pages 187-199.
    21. Christian Dustmann & Attila Lindner & Uta Schönberg & Matthias Umkehrer & Philipp vom Berge, 2022. "Reallocation Effects of the Minimum Wage," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(1), pages 267-328.
    22. Dolton, Peter & Bondibene, Chiara Rosazza & Stops, Michael, 2015. "Identifying the employment effect of invoking and changing the minimum wage: A spatial analysis of the UK," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 54-76.
    23. Joachim Möller, 2012. "Minimum wages in German industries—what does the evidence tell us so far? [Branchenspezifische Mindestlöhne in Deutschland – Was sagt uns die empirische Forschung?]," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 45(3), pages 187-199, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mario Bossler & Ying Liang & Thorsten Schank, 2024. "The Devil is in the Details: Heterogeneous Effects of the German Minimum Wage on Working Hours and Minijobs," Papers 2403.17206, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arindrajit Dube & Attila S. Lindner, 2024. "Minimum Wages in the 21st Century," NBER Working Papers 32878, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Pestel, Nico & Bonin, Holger & Isphording, Ingo E. & Gregory, Terry & Caliendo, Marco, 2020. "Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf Beschäftigung und Arbeitslosigkeit," IZA Research Reports 95, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Kunaschk, Max, 2024. "The effects of minimum wages on employment and prices—Evidence from the hairdressing sector," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    4. Bossler, Mario & Gürtzgen, Nicole & Lochner, Benjamin & Betzl, Ute & Feist, Lisa & Wegmann, Jakob, 2018. "Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf Betriebe und Unternehmen," IAB-Forschungsbericht 201804, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    5. Link, Sebastian, 2024. "The price and employment response of firms to the introduction of minimum wages," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    6. Bonin Holger & Isphording Ingo E. & Krause-Pilatus Annabelle & Lichter Andreas & Pestel Nico & Rinne Ulf, 2020. "The German Statutory Minimum Wage and Its Effects on Regional Employment and Unemployment," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 240(2-3), pages 295-319, April.
    7. Mario Bossler & Thorsten Schank, 2023. "Wage Inequality in Germany after the Minimum Wage Introduction," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 41(3), pages 813-857.
    8. Marco Caliendo & Alexandra Fedorets & Malte Preuss & Carsten Schröder & Linda Wittbrodt, 2023. "The short- and medium-term distributional effects of the German minimum wage reform," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 1149-1175, March.
    9. Mario Bossler & Lars Chittka & Thorsten Schank, 2024. "A 22 percent increase in the German minimum wage: nothing crazy!," Papers 2405.12608, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    10. Mario Bossler & Ying Liang & Thorsten Schank, 2024. "The Devil is in the Details: Heterogeneous Effects of the German Minimum Wage on Working Hours and Minijobs," Papers 2403.17206, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    11. Börschlein, Benjamin & Bossler, Mario, 2021. "A new machine learning-based treatment bite for long run minimum wage evaluations," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242441, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Friedrich Martin, 2020. "Using Occupations to Evaluate the Employment Effects of the German Minimum Wage," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 240(2-3), pages 269-294, April.
    13. Caliendo, Marco & Wittbrodt, Linda, 2022. "Did the minimum wage reduce the gender wage gap in Germany?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    14. Mario Bossler & Michael Oberfichtner & Claus Schnabel, 2020. "Employment Adjustments Following Rises and Reductions in Minimum Wages: New Insights From a Survey Experiment," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 34(3), pages 323-346, September.
    15. Bruttel, Oliver, 2019. "The effects of the new statutory minimum wage in Germany: a first assessment of the evidence," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 53(1), pages 1-10.
    16. Costanza Naguib, 2022. "Did earnings mobility change after minimum wage introduction? Evidence from parametric and semi‐nonparametric methods in Germany," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(7), pages 1379-1402, November.
    17. Isphording, Ingo E. & Caliendo, Marco & Mahlstedt, Robert & Pestel, Nico & Zimpelmann, Christian, 2022. "Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf individuelle Beschäftigungsbewegungen und betriebliche Lohnstrukturen in den Jahren 2015 bis 2020," IZA Research Reports 133, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Friedrich Martin, 2020. "Using Occupations to Evaluate the Employment Effects of the German Minimum Wage," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 240(2-3), pages 269-294, April.
    19. Mario Bossler & Martin Popp, 2022. "Labor Demand on a Tight Leash," Papers 2203.05593, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    20. Schmid, Ramona, 2023. "Mind the Gap: Effects of the National Minimum Wage on the Gender Wage Gap in Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277646, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2310.15964. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.