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Bad start, bad match? The early career effects of graduating in a recession for vocational and academic graduates

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  • Berge, Wiljan van den

Abstract

I estimate the effect of graduating in a recession on the early careers of high-educated vocational and academic graduates in the Netherlands between 1996 and 2012. Exploiting field-specific differences in economic conditions at graduation, I find that academic graduates suffer a 10% lower wage per percentage point decline in field-specific employment at graduation. The wage loss fades out six years after graduation. For vocational graduates I find substantially smaller effects at 6% initially, but they remain persistent at 1% after 8 years on the labor market. Employment effects are small. Poor entry conditions are associated with an increased probability of mismatch and employment at lower paying employers. The primary mechanism through which graduates catch up is mobility across jobs and sectors to better paying employers. Job mobility resolves the mismatch for academic graduates after 4 years on the labor market, while vocational graduates remain persistently more likely to be mismatched.

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  • Berge, Wiljan van den, 2018. "Bad start, bad match? The early career effects of graduating in a recession for vocational and academic graduates," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 75-96.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:labeco:v:53:y:2018:i:c:p:75-96
    DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2018.05.011
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    2. Eleanor J. Choi & Jaewoo Choi & Hyelim Son, 2020. "The Long-Term Effects of Labor Market Entry in a Recession: Evidence from the Asian Financial Crisis," Working Papers 637, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
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    4. Bruce Fallick & Pawel Krolikowski, 2022. "Excess Persistence in Employment of Disadvantaged Workers," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(4), pages 1-52, October.
    5. Choi, Eleanor Jawon & Choi, Jaewoo & Son, Hyelim, 2020. "The long-term effects of labor market entry in a recession: Evidence from the Asian financial crisis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    6. Bussink, Henri & Vervliet, Tobias & ter Weel, Bas, 2022. "The Short-Term Effect of the COVID-19 Crisis on Employment Probabilities of Labour-Market Entrants in the Netherlands," IZA Discussion Papers 15242, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Petru Crudu, 2023. "Long-term effects of early adverse labour market conditions: A Causal Machine Learning approach," Working Papers 2023:21, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    8. Henri Bussink & Tobias Vervliet & Bas ter Weel, 2022. "The short-term effect of the COVID-19 crisis on employment probabilities of labour-market entrants in the Netherlands," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-030/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    9. Choi, Eleanor J. & Choi, Jaewoo & Son, Hyelim, 2020. "The Long-Term Effects of Labor Market Entry in a Recession: Evidence from the Asian Financial Crisis," IZA Discussion Papers 13009, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Bradley, Steve & Migali, Giuseppe, 2019. "The effects of the 2006 tuition fee reform and the Great Recession on university student dropout behaviour in the UK," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 331-356.
    11. Rosario Aldunate, 2019. "Returns to Work Experience in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 855, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Hugh Cassidy & Amanda Gaulke, 2024. "The increasing penalty to occupation‐education mismatch," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(2), pages 607-632, April.
    13. Bryn Lampe & Catherine de Fontenay & Jessica Nugent & Patrick Jomini, 2022. "Climbing the Jobs Ladder Slower: Young People in a Weak Labour Market," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 55(1), pages 40-70, March.
    14. Elena-Loreni Baciu, 2022. "Employment Outcomes of Higher Education Graduates from during and after the 2007–2008 Financial Crisis: Evidence from a Romanian University," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-30, September.
    15. Berniell, Inés & Gasparini, Leonardo & Marchionni, Mariana & Viollaz, Mariana, 2023. "Lucky women in unlucky cohorts," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Recent graduates; Wages; Job mobility; Mismatch;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • I26 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Returns to Education

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