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Are Italian consumer confidence adjustments asymmetric? A macroeconomic and psychological motives approach

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  • Paradiso, Antonio
  • Kumar, Saten
  • Margani, Patrizia

Abstract

This paper estimates the determinants of Italian consumer confidence indicator (CCI) using time series methods. We find there exists a long-run relationship between CCI and its determinants when an important political event ‘operation clean hands’, captured by a dummy, is considered. Using the asymmetric error correction model (Enders & Siklos, 2001), we find that consumers respond asymmetrically to different types of disequilibrium error under threshold autoregressive (TAR) adjustment specification. These findings are consistent with the psychological bias approach (Bovi, 2009).

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  • Paradiso, Antonio & Kumar, Saten & Margani, Patrizia, 2014. "Are Italian consumer confidence adjustments asymmetric? A macroeconomic and psychological motives approach," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 48-63.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joepsy:v:43:y:2014:i:c:p:48-63
    DOI: 10.1016/j.joep.2014.04.006
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    2. Petar Soric & Mateo Zokalj & Marija Logarusic, 2020. "Economic determinants of Croatian consumer confidence: real estate prices vs. macroeconomy," Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal, Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu, vol. 18(2B), pages 240-257.
    3. Amanda Venta & Ericka Ball Cooper & Justin Bristow & Enrique Venta, 2019. "Preliminary Data Linking American Consumer Perceptions with Unauthorized Migration to the U.S," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 279-290, February.
    4. Piotr Białowolski, 2015. "Concepts of Confidence in Tendency Survey Research: An Assessment with Multi-group Confirmatory Factor Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 281-302, August.
    5. Petar Sorić, 2022. "Ability to consume versus willingness to consume: the role of nonlinearities," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 663-689, August.
    6. Hassan F. Gholipour & Reza Tajaddini & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2023. "Governments’ economic support for households during the COVID-19 pandemic and consumer confidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 1253-1272, September.
    7. Petar Sorić & Mirjana Čižmešija & Marina Matošec, 2020. "EU Consumer Confidence and the New Modesty Hypothesis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 899-921, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymmetric error correction; Long-run; Short-run; Consumer confidence indicator; Psychological motives;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis

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