Aggregate and disaggregate sector forecasting using consumer confidence measures
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Foekens, Eijte W. & Leeflang, Peter S. H. & Wittink, Dick R., 1994. "A comparison and an exploration of the forecasting accuracy of a loglinear model at different levels of aggregation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 245-261, September.
- LeSage, James P. & Magura, Michael, 1991. "Using interindustry input-output relations as a Bayesian prior in employment forecasting models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 231-238, August.
- Artis, M. J. & Zhang, W., 1990. "BVAR forecasts for the G-7," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 349-362, October.
- Hafer, R. W. & Sheehan, Richard G., 1989.
"The sensitivity of VAR forecasts to alternative lag structures,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 399-408.
- Rik Hafer & Richard G. Sheehan, 1987. "On the sensitivity of VAR forecasts to alternative lag structures," Working Papers 1987-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Richard H. Thaler, 2008.
"Mental Accounting and Consumer Choice,"
Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(1), pages 15-25, 01-02.
- Richard Thaler, 1985. "Mental Accounting and Consumer Choice," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 4(3), pages 199-214.
- Holden, K. & Broomhead, A., 1990. "An examination of vector autoregressive forecasts for the U.K. economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 11-23.
- John W. Keating, 1992. "Structural approaches to vector autoregressions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 37-57.
- V. Kumar & Timothy B. Heath, 1990. "A comparative study of market share models using disaggregate data," Post-Print hal-00670544, HAL.
- Kamakura, Wagner A. & Gessner, Guy, 1986. "Consumer sentiment and buying intentions revisited: a comparison of predictive usefulness," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 197-220, June.
- Funke, Michael, 1990. "Assessing the forecasting accuracy of monthly vector autoregressive models : The case of five OECD countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 363-378, October.
- Van Raaij, W. Fred & Gianotten, Henk J., 1990. "Consumer confidence, expenditure, saving, and credit," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 269-290, June.
- Litterman, Robert B, 1986.
"Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
- Robert B. Litterman, 1985. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions five years of experience," Working Papers 274, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Frank M. Bass & Robert P. Leone, 1983. "Temporal Aggregation, the Data Interval Bias, and Empirical Estimation of Bimonthly Relations from Annual Data," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(1), pages 1-11, January.
- F. Thomas Juster & Paul Wachtel, 1974.
"Anticipatory and Objective Models of Durable Goods Demand,"
NBER Chapters, in: Explorations in Economic Research, Volume 1, number 2, pages 340-392,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Juster, F Thomas & Wachtel, Paul, 1972. "Anticipatory and Objective Models of Durable Goods Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 564-579, September.
- Aksu, Celal & Narayan, Jack Y., 1991. "Forecasting with vector ARMA and state space methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 17-30, May.
- van Raaij, W. Fred, 1989. "Economic news, expectations and macro-economic behaviour," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 473-493.
- Kumar, V. & Heath, Timothy B., 1990. "A comparative study of market share models using disaggregate data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 163-174, July.
- Danaher, Peter J. & Brodie, Roderick J., 1992. "Predictive accuracy of simple versus complex econometric market share models: Theoretical and empirical results," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 613-626, December.
- Armstrong, J. Scott & Collopy, Fred, 1992. "Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 69-80, June.
- Litterman, Robert, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions -- Five years of experience : Robert B. Litterman, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 4 (1986) 25-38," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 497-498.
- Fildes, Robert, 1992. "The evaluation of extrapolative forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 81-98, June.
- Spencer, David E., 1993. "Developing a Bayesian vector autoregression forecasting model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 407-421, November.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Hunneman, Auke & Verhoef, Peter C. & Sloot, Laurens M., 2015. "The Impact of Consumer Confidence on Store Satisfaction and Share of Wallet Formation," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 516-532.
- Ribeiro Ramos, Francisco Fernando, 2003. "Forecasts of market shares from VAR and BVAR models: a comparison of their accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 95-110.
- Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2019. "Empirical modelling of survey-based expectations for the design of economic indicators in five European regions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 46(2), pages 205-227, May.
- David L. Haugh, 2005. "The Influence Of Consumer Confidence And Stock Prices On The United States Business Cycle," CAMA Working Papers 2005-03, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Roos, Michael W.M., 2008. "Willingness to consume and ability to consume," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 387-402, May.
- Hojin Jung, 2020. "The Impact of Ambient Fine Particulate Matter on Consumer Expenditures," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-13, March.
- E. Kilic & S. Cankaya, 2016. "Consumer confidence and economic activity: a factor augmented VAR approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(32), pages 3062-3080, July.
- Hojin Jung & Minjae Park & Kihoon Hong & Eunjung Hyun, 2016. "The Impact of an Epidemic Outbreak on Consumer Expenditures:An Empirical Assessment for MERS Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-15, May.
- Lemmens, A. & Croux, C. & Dekimpe, M.G., 2005. "The European Consumer: United In Diversity?," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2005-022-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
- Lamey, L. & Deleersnyder, B. & Dekimpe, M.G. & Steenkamp, J-B.E.M., 2005. "The Impact of Business-Cycle Fluctuations on Private-Label Share," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2005-061-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
- Paradiso, Antonio & Kumar, Saten & Margani, Patrizia, 2014. "Are Italian consumer confidence adjustments asymmetric? A macroeconomic and psychological motives approach," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 48-63.
- Sevcan GÜNEŞ & Tuğba AKIN, 2019. "High Technology Exports: The Analysis for Leader Countries and Turkey," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 27(40).
- Deleersnyder, B. & Dekimpe, M.G. & Sarvary, M. & Parker, P.M., 2003. "Weathering Tight Economic Times: The Sales Evolution Of Consumer Durables Over The Business Cycle," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2003-046-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
- V. Kumar & JeeWon Brianna Choi & Mallik Greene, 2017. "Synergistic effects of social media and traditional marketing on brand sales: capturing the time-varying effects," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 268-288, March.
- Lemmens, A. & Croux, C. & Dekimpe, M.G., 2007. "Consumer confidence in Europe : United in diversity," Other publications TiSEM ea8c3268-2c0b-4fcc-9d4a-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Sarah Gelper & Aurelie Lemmens & Christophe Croux, 2007. "Consumer sentiment and consumer spending: decomposing the Granger causal relationship in the time domain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 1-11.
- Marnik G. Dekimpe & Barbara Deleersnyder, 2018. "Business cycle research in marketing: a review and research agenda," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 31-58, January.
- Arindam Mandal & Joseph McCollum, 2013. "Consumer Confidence and the Unemployment Rate in New York State: A Panel Study," New York Economic Review, New York State Economics Association (NYSEA), vol. 44(1), pages 3-19.
- Baghestani, Hamid, 2021. "Predicting growth in US durables spending using consumer durables-buying attitudes," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 327-336.
- Grewal, Rajdeep & Mills, Jeffrey A. & Mehta, Raj & Mujumdar, Sudesh, 2001. "Using cointegration analysis for modeling marketing interactions in dynamic environments: methodological issues and an empirical illustration," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 127-144, February.
- Gelper, S. & Lemmens, A. & Croux, C., 2007. "Consumer sentiment and consumer spending : Decomposing the granger causal relationship in the time domain," Other publications TiSEM 55ac7230-2985-41f1-a42c-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Piotr Białowolski, 2015. "Concepts of Confidence in Tendency Survey Research: An Assessment with Multi-group Confirmatory Factor Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 281-302, August.
- Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2003. "What is this thing called confidence? A comparative analysis of consumer confidence indices in eight major countries," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 484, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Dion, David Pascal, 2006. "Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Spending? The Euro Area Case," MPRA Paper 911, University Library of Munich, Germany.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- De Gooijer, Jan G. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "25 years of time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 443-473.
- Jan G. De Gooijer & Rob J. Hyndman, 2005.
"25 Years of IIF Time Series Forecasting: A Selective Review,"
Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers
12/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Jan G. de Gooijer & Rob J. Hyndman, 2005. "25 Years of IIF Time Series Forecasting: A Selective Review," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-068/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- repec:lan:wpaper:470 is not listed on IDEAS
- Ribeiro Ramos, Francisco Fernando, 2003. "Forecasts of market shares from VAR and BVAR models: a comparison of their accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 95-110.
- repec:lan:wpaper:425 is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:lan:wpaper:539557 is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:lan:wpaper:413 is not listed on IDEAS
- Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
- Francisco F. R. Ramos, 1996. "Forecasting market shares using VAR and BVAR models: A comparison of their forecasting performance," Econometrics 9601003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Dan S. Rickman, 2010. "Modern Macroeconomics And Regional Economic Modeling," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 23-41, February.
- Fildes, Robert, 2006. "The forecasting journals and their contribution to forecasting research: Citation analysis and expert opinion," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 415-432.
- Dan S. Rickman, 2001. "Using Input-Output Information for Bayesian Forecasting of Industry Employment in a Regional Econometric Model," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 24(2), pages 226-244, April.
- Gupta, Rangan & Kabundi, Alain & Miller, Stephen M., 2011.
"Forecasting the US real house price index: Structural and non-structural models with and without fundamentals,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 2013-2021, July.
- Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Forecasting the US Real House Price Index: Structural and Non-Structural Models with and without Fundamentals," Working Papers 200927, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Rangan Gupta & Alan Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2010. "Forecasting the US Real House Price Index: Structural and Non-Structural Models with and without Fundamentals," Working Papers 1001, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
- Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Forecasting the US Real House Price Index: Structural and Non-Structural Models with and without Fundamentals," Working papers 2009-42, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
- Rangan Gupta & Stephen Miller, 2012.
"“Ripple effects” and forecasting home prices in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix,"
The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 48(3), pages 763-782, June.
- Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. ""Ripple Effects" and Forecasting Home Prices in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix," Working papers 2009-05, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2009.
- Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. ""Ripple Effects” and Forecasting Home Prices in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix," Working Papers 0902, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
- Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "“Ripple Effects” and Forecasting Home Prices In Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix," Working Papers 200901, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Bekiros, Stelios & Cardani, Roberta & Paccagnini, Alessia & Villa, Stefania, 2016.
"Dealing with financial instability under a DSGE modeling approach with banking intermediation: A predictability analysis versus TVP-VARs,"
Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 216-227.
- Stelios D. Bekiros & Roberta Cardani & Alessia Paccagnini & Stefania Villa, 2016. "Dealing with Financial Instability under a DSGE modeling approach with Banking Intermediation: a predictability analysis versus TVP-VARs," Open Access publications 10197/7323, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
- Stelios D. Bekiros & Roberta Cardani & Alessia Paccagnini & Stefania Villa, 2016. "Dealing with Financial Instability under a DSGE modeling approach with Banking Intermediation: a predictability analysis versus TVP-VARs," Working Papers 201611, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
- Stelios D. Bekiros & Alessia Paccagnini, 2016.
"Policy‐Oriented Macroeconomic Forecasting with Hybrid DGSE and Time‐Varying Parameter VAR Models,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(7), pages 613-632, November.
- Stelios Bekiros & Alessia Paccagnini, 2013. "Policy-oriented macroeconomic forecasting with hybrid DGSE and time-varying parameter VAR models," Working Papers 236, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2013.
- Stelios D. Bekiros & Alessia Paccagnini, 2014. "Policy-oriented macroeconomic forecasting with hybrid DGSE and time-varying parameter VAR models," Working Papers 2014-426, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
- Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gupta, Rangan & Gogas, Periklis & Papadimitriou, Theophilos, 2015.
"Forecasting the U.S. real house price index,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 259-267.
- Vasilios Plakandaras & Rangan Gupta & Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou, 2014. "Forecasting the U.S. Real House Price Index," Working Papers 201418, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Vasilios Plakandaras & Rangan Gupta & Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou, 2017. "Forecasting the U.S. Real House Price Index," Papers 1707.04868, arXiv.org.
- Vasilios Plakandaras & Rangan Gupta & Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou, 2014. "Forecasting the U.S. Real House Price Index," Working Paper series 30_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gupta, Rangan & Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Gogas, Periklis, 2014. "Forecasting the U.S. Real House Price Index," DUTH Research Papers in Economics 10-2014, Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics.
- Bekiros Stelios & Paccagnini Alessia, 2015.
"Estimating point and density forecasts for the US economy with a factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE model,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 107-136, April.
- Stelios D. Bekiros & Alessia Paccagnini, 2014. "Estimating point and density forecasts for the US economy with a factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE model," Open Access publications 10197/7588, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
- Das, Sonali & Gupta, Rangan & Kabundi, Alain, 2009.
"Could we have predicted the recent downturn in the South African housing market?,"
Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 325-335, December.
- Sonali Das & Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi, 2008. "Could We Have Predicted The Recent Downturn In The South African Housing Market?," Working Papers 200831, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Nonso Obikili, 2018. "Unfulfilled expectations and the emergence of the EFF," Working Papers 149, Economic Research Southern Africa.
- Bekiros, Stelios D. & Paccagnini, Alessia, 2014.
"Bayesian forecasting with small and medium scale factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE models,"
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 298-323.
- Stelios D. Bekiros & Alessia Paccagnini, 2014. "Bayesian forecasting with small and medium scale factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE models," Open Access publications 10197/7322, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
- Gupta, Rangan & Kabundi, Alain, 2011.
"A large factor model for forecasting macroeconomic variables in South Africa,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1076-1088, October.
- Alain Kabundi & Rangan Gupta, 2009. "A Large Factor Model for Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables in South Africa," Working Papers 137, Economic Research Southern Africa.
- Shoesmith, Gary L., 1995. "Multiple cointegrating vectors, error correction, and forecasting with Litterman's model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 557-567, December.
- Pami Dua & Nishita Raje & Satyananda Sahoo, 2008. "Forecasting Interest Rates in India," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 2(1), pages 1-41, March.
- Raul Ibarra & Luis M. Gomez-Zamudio, 2017.
"Are Daily Financial Data Useful for Forecasting GDP? Evidence from Mexico,"
Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 173-203, April.
- Gómez-Zamudio, Luis M. & Ibarra, Raúl, 2017. "Are daily financial data useful for forecasting GDP? Evidence from Mexico," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123310, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl & Gómez-Zamudio Luis M., 2017. "Are daily financial data useful for forecasting GDP? Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 2017-17, Banco de México.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:11:y:1995:i:3:p:361-377. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.