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Le famiglie italiane e l'introduzione dell'euro: storia di uno shock annunciato

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  • Roberto Golinelli
  • Giuseppe Parigi

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to analyse the evolution of households confidence during the last two years, by suggesting some interpretations about the relationships between the consumer confidence (sentiment) index (CCI) and a number of relevant macroeconomic indicators. Since the beginning of 2002, Italian households have been more and more pessimist, as recorded by the falling CCI levels (down till the levels of the 1992-93 recession). Through econometric models, where CCI depends on a number of macroeconomic variables, we show that the CCI equation seems to be characterised by a structural break since the first quarter of 2002 (it continuously overestimated actual levels). In an attempt to explain these dynamics, we relate the CCI to households perceived inflation, an additional indicator not included in the version of the model with a break. This inclusion considerably improves the explanatory power of the Italian model, and sweeps out any evidence of the previous break. The peculiarity of the Italian case is stressed by the comparison with the French and German cases (where nothing of that sort happened), and reinforces the idea that the changeover from the lira to the euro may be interpreted as a shock for Italian households.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2005. "Le famiglie italiane e l'introduzione dell'euro: storia di uno shock annunciato," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 201-226.
    • Handle: RePEc:mul:je8794:doi:10.1429/20207:y:2005:i:2:p:201-226
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tito Boeri & Andrea Brandolini, 2004. "The Age of Discontent: Italian Households at the Beginning of the Decade," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 63(3-4), pages 449-487, December.
    2. Paradiso, Antonio & Kumar, Saten & Margani, Patrizia, 2014. "Are Italian consumer confidence adjustments asymmetric? A macroeconomic and psychological motives approach," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 48-63.
    3. Gabriele, Stefania & Martelli, Bianca Maria & Raitano, Michele, 2009. "How dark is the night: the consumers’ mood coping with the crisis.Evidences from ISAE Consumer Survey," MPRA Paper 16289, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Flora Fullone & Bianca Maria Martelli, 2008. "Re-thinking the ISAE Consumer Survey Processing Procedure," ISAE Working Papers 92, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    5. Paolo Giovane & Roberto Sabbatini, 2008. "Perceived and measured inflation after the launch of the euro: explaining the gap in Italy," Springer Books, in: Paolo Giovane & Roberto Sabbatini (ed.), The Euro, Inflation and Consumer’s Perceptions, chapter 1, pages 13-49, Springer.
    6. Malgarini, Marco & Margani, Patrizia, 2005. "Psychology, consumer sentiment and household expenditures: a disaggregated analysis," MPRA Paper 42443, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Stefania GABRIELE & Bianca Maria MARTELLI & Michele RAITANO, 2009. "How Dark Is The Night: The Consumers� Mood Coping With The Crisis. Evidences From Isae Consumer Survey," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(3(9)_Fall).
    8. Paradiso, Antonio & Rao, B. Bhaskara & Margani, Patrizia, 2011. "Time Series Estimates of the Italian Consumer Confidence Indicator," MPRA Paper 28395, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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