IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v262y2023ipbs0360544222023179.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Pathways for municipalities to achieve carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality: A study based on the LEAP model

Author

Listed:
  • Cai, Liya
  • Luo, Ji
  • Wang, Minghui
  • Guo, Jianfeng
  • Duan, Jinglin
  • Li, Jingtao
  • Li, Shuo
  • Liu, Liting
  • Ren, Dangpei

Abstract

China has played an active and constructive role in the global combat against climate change. Municipalities play a leading role in tackling global climate change. However, despite the global efforts to push for carbon neutrality, the pathway is not yet clear. Using the municipality of Bengbu as a case, this paper explores pathways for achieving carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality in order to reach a CO2 emission peak before 2030 in four Scenarios and develops a low emission framework taking into consideration the local economy, population, renewable resources, as well as the transport and energy sectors based on the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) model. Meanwhile, the energy demand, the structure of the electric power generation, the CO2 emission, and the total cost in different Scenarios are simulated respectively. The result of this study provides insight on options for energy transformation for the period of 2020–2060. The results show that the industrial sector is the largest energy consumer. The growth rate of energy demand in the primary industry and industrial sector shows downward trends. The increasement of industrial electrification rate and coal generation phasing out are crucial to CO2 emission reduction. The large-scale deployment of renewable energy and the deployment of thermal power generation with CCUS are important for the electric power industry to achieve carbon reduction goals. Last but not the least, recommendations on energy planning for municipals to realize carbon emission peak and achieve carbon neutrality are provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Cai, Liya & Luo, Ji & Wang, Minghui & Guo, Jianfeng & Duan, Jinglin & Li, Jingtao & Li, Shuo & Liu, Liting & Ren, Dangpei, 2023. "Pathways for municipalities to achieve carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality: A study based on the LEAP model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:262:y:2023:i:pb:s0360544222023179
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2022.125435
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544222023179
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2022.125435?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chiodi, Alessandro & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Rogan, Fionn & Deane, J.P. & Lavigne, Denis & Rout, Ullash K. & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P., 2013. "Modelling the impacts of challenging 2050 European climate mitigation targets on Ireland’s energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 169-189.
    2. Yang, Dewei & Liu, Dandan & Huang, Anmin & Lin, Jianyi & Xu, Lingxing, 2021. "Critical transformation pathways and socio-environmental benefits of energy substitution using a LEAP scenario modeling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    3. Tsai, Miao-Shan & Chang, Ssu-Li, 2015. "Taiwan’s 2050 low carbon development roadmap: An evaluation with the MARKAL model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 178-191.
    4. J-F Mercure & H. Pollitt & N. R. Edwards & P. B. Holden & U. Chewpreecha & P. Salas & A. Lam & F. Knobloch & J. Vinuales, 2017. "Environmental impact assessment for climate change policy with the simulation-based integrated assessment model E3ME-FTT-GENIE," Papers 1707.04870, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2018.
    5. Zhang, Qi & Ishihara, Keiichi N. & Mclellan, Benjamin C. & Tezuka, Tetsuo, 2012. "Scenario analysis on future electricity supply and demand in Japan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 376-385.
    6. McDonald, Alan & Schrattenholzer, Leo, 2001. "Learning rates for energy technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 255-261, March.
    7. Mostafaeipour, Ali & Bidokhti, Abbas & Fakhrzad, Mohammad-Bagher & Sadegheih, Ahmad & Zare Mehrjerdi, Yahia, 2022. "A new model for the use of renewable electricity to reduce carbon dioxide emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).
    8. Ciscar, Juan-Carlos & Saveyn, Bert & Soria, Antonio & Szabo, Laszlo & Van Regemorter, Denise & Van Ierland, Tom, 2013. "A comparability analysis of global burden sharing GHG reduction scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 73-81.
    9. Wu, Wei & Zhang, Tingting & Xie, Xiaomin & Huang, Zhen, 2021. "Regional low carbon development pathways for the Yangtze River Delta region in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    10. Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Can & Wang, Ke & Zhang, Ying & Chen, Jining, 2007. "Scenario analysis on CO2 emissions reduction potential in China's electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6445-6456, December.
    11. Monica Maduekwe & Uduak Akpan & Salisu Isihak, 2020. "Road Transport Energy Consumption and Vehicular Emissions in Lagos, Nigeria," Working Papers 20/055, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    12. Lohwasser, Richard & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Relating R&D and investment policies to CCS market diffusion through two-factor learning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 439-452.
    13. Di Leo, Senatro & Caramuta, Pietro & Curci, Paola & Cosmi, Carmelina, 2020. "Regression analysis for energy demand projection: An application to TIMES-Basilicata and TIMES-Italy energy models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    14. Yi-Ming Wei & Rong Han & Qiao-Mei Liang & Bi-Ying Yu & Yun-Fei Yao & Mei-Mei Xue & Kun Zhang & Li-Jing Liu & Juan Peng & Pu Yang & Zhi-Fu Mi & Yun-Fei Du & Ce Wang & Jun-Jie Chang & Qian-Ru Yang & Zil, 2018. "An integrated assessment of INDCs under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: an implementation of C3IAM," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(2), pages 585-618, June.
    15. Elliston, Ben & Diesendorf, Mark & MacGill, Iain, 2012. "Simulations of scenarios with 100% renewable electricity in the Australian National Electricity Market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 606-613.
    16. Zhou, Nan & Fridley, David & Khanna, Nina Zheng & Ke, Jing & McNeil, Michael & Levine, Mark, 2013. "China's energy and emissions outlook to 2050: Perspectives from bottom-up energy end-use model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 51-62.
    17. Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent & Emodi, Chinenye Comfort & Murthy, Girish Panchakshara & Emodi, Adaeze Saratu Augusta, 2017. "Energy policy for low carbon development in Nigeria: A LEAP model application," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 247-261.
    18. Kumbaroglu, Gürkan & Karali, Nihan & ArIkan, YIldIz, 2008. "CO2, GDP and RET: An aggregate economic equilibrium analysis for Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2694-2708, July.
    19. Koopmans, Carl C. & te Velde, Dirk Willem, 2001. "Bridging the energy efficiency gap: using bottom-up information in a top-down energy demand model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 57-75, January.
    20. Mi, Raymond & Ahammad, Helal & Hitchins, Nina & Heyhoe, Edwina, 2012. "Development and deployment of clean electricity technologies in Asia: A multi-scenario analysis using GTEM," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 399-409.
    21. Nieves, J.A. & Aristizábal, A.J. & Dyner, I. & Báez, O. & Ospina, D.H., 2019. "Energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions analysis in Colombia: A LEAP model application," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 380-397.
    22. Haikun Wang & Xi Lu & Yu Deng & Yaoguang Sun & Chris P. Nielsen & Yifan Liu & Ge Zhu & Maoliang Bu & Jun Bi & Michael B. McElroy, 2019. "China’s CO2 peak before 2030 implied from characteristics and growth of cities," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(8), pages 748-754, August.
    23. Wang, Ke & Wang, Can & Lu, Xuedu & Chen, Jining, 2007. "Scenario analysis on CO2 emissions reduction potential in China's iron and steel industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2320-2335, April.
    24. Wei, Xintong & Qiu, Rui & Liang, Yongtu & Liao, Qi & Klemeš, Jiří Jaromír & Xue, Jinjun & Zhang, Haoran, 2022. "Roadmap to carbon emissions neutral industrial parks: Energy, economic and environmental analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).
    25. Linares, P. & Santos, F.J. & Pérez-Arriaga, I.J., 2008. "Scenarios for the evolution of the Spanish electricity sector: Is it on the right path towards sustainability?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 4057-4068, November.
    26. Bataille, Chris & Melton, Noel, 2017. "Energy efficiency and economic growth: A retrospective CGE analysis for Canada from 2002 to 2012," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 118-130.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hongqiang Wang & Wenyi Xu & Yingjie Zhang, 2023. "Research on Provincial Carbon Emission Reduction Path Based on LMDI-SD-Tapio Decoupling Model: The Case of Guizhou, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-20, September.
    2. El-Sayed, Ahmed Hassan A. & Khalil, Adel & Yehia, Mohamed, 2023. "Modeling alternative scenarios for Egypt 2050 energy mix based on LEAP analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    3. Wang, Shanyong & Wang, Jing & Wang, Wenfu, 2023. "Do geopolitical risks facilitate the global energy transition? Evidence from 39 countries in the world," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    4. Tang, Liwei & Luo, Mansi & Li, Ke & Zhang, Fan, 2024. "Driving factors and peaking of CO2 emissions: An empirical analysis of Hunan Province," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    5. Kozera, Agnieszka & Satoła, Łukasz & Standar, Aldona, 2024. "European Union co-funded investments in low-emission and green energy in urban public transport in Poland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    6. Yuan Zeng & Wengang Zhang & Jingwen Sun & Li’ao Sun & Jun Wu, 2023. "Research on Regional Carbon Emission Reduction in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Urban Agglomeration Based on System Dynamics: Key Factors and Policy Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-20, September.
    7. Wang, Xueyang & Sun, Xiumei & Ahmad, Mahmood & Chen, Jiawei, 2024. "Energy transition, ecological governance, globalization, and environmental sustainability: Insights from the top ten emitting countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    8. Malka, Lorenc & Bidaj, Flamur & Kuriqi, Alban & Jaku, Aldona & Roçi, Rexhina & Gebremedhin, Alemayehu, 2023. "Energy system analysis with a focus on future energy demand projections: The case of Norway," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    9. Yan, Yamin & Chang, He & Yan, Jie & Li, Li & Liu, Chao & Xiang, Kangli & Liu, Yongqian, 2024. "Benchmarking and contribution analysis of carbon emission reduction for renewable power systems considering multi-factor coupling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    10. Zhang, Xiaoshun & Guo, Zhengxun & Pan, Feng & Yang, Yuyao & Li, Chuansheng, 2023. "Dynamic carbon emission factor based interactive control of distribution network by a generalized regression neural network assisted optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    11. Zhu, Guangyan & Tian, Yajun & Liu, Min & Zhao, Yating & Wang, Wen & Wang, Minghua & Li, Quansheng & Xie, Kechang, 2023. "Comprehensive competitiveness assessment of ammonia-hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles and their competitive routes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    12. Miao, Ankang & Yuan, Yue & Wu, Han & Ma, Xin & Shao, Chenyu & Xiang, Sheng, 2024. "Pathway for China's provincial carbon emission peak: A case study of the Jiangsu Province," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    13. Lv, Fei & Wu, Qiong & Ren, Hongbo & Zhou, Weisheng & Li, Qifen, 2024. "On the design and analysis of long-term low-carbon roadmaps: A review and evaluation of available energy-economy-environment models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PA).
    14. Luo, Haizhi & Li, Yingyue & Gao, Xinyu & Meng, Xiangzhao & Yang, Xiaohu & Yan, Jinyue, 2023. "Carbon emission prediction model of prefecture-level administrative region: A land-use-based case study of Xi'an city, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 348(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yang, Dewei & Liu, Dandan & Huang, Anmin & Lin, Jianyi & Xu, Lingxing, 2021. "Critical transformation pathways and socio-environmental benefits of energy substitution using a LEAP scenario modeling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    2. El-Sayed, Ahmed Hassan A. & Khalil, Adel & Yehia, Mohamed, 2023. "Modeling alternative scenarios for Egypt 2050 energy mix based on LEAP analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    3. Perwez, Usama & Sohail, Ahmed & Hassan, Syed Fahad & Zia, Usman, 2015. "The long-term forecast of Pakistan's electricity supply and demand: An application of long range energy alternatives planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 2423-2435.
    4. Prasad, Ravita D. & Bansal, R.C. & Raturi, Atul, 2014. "Multi-faceted energy planning: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 686-699.
    5. Tsai, Miao-Shan & Chang, Ssu-Li, 2015. "Taiwan’s 2050 low carbon development roadmap: An evaluation with the MARKAL model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 178-191.
    6. Zhang, Shaohui & Worrell, Ernst & Crijns-Graus, Wina, 2015. "Synergy of air pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions of Chinese industries: A critical assessment of energy models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 2436-2450.
    7. Khanna, Nina Zheng & Zhou, Nan & Fridley, David & Ke, Jing, 2016. "Quantifying the potential impacts of China's power-sector policies on coal input and CO2 emissions through 2050: A bottom-up perspective," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 128-138.
    8. Vicente Sebastian Espinoza & Veronica Guayanlema & Javier Mart nez-G mez, 2018. "Energy Efficiency Plan Benefits in Ecuador: Long-range Energy Alternative Planning Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 52-54.
    9. Mondal, Md Alam Hossain & Bryan, Elizabeth & Ringler, Claudia & Mekonnen, Dawit & Rosegrant, Mark, 2018. "Ethiopian energy status and demand scenarios: Prospects to improve energy efficiency and mitigate GHG emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 161-172.
    10. Acosta-Pazmiño, Iván P. & Rivera-Solorio, C.I. & Gijón-Rivera, M., 2021. "Scaling-up the installation of hybrid solar collectors to reduce CO2 emissions in a Mexican industrial sector from now to 2030," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    11. Wen, Zong-guo & Di, Jing-han & Yu, Xue-wei & Zhang, Xuan, 2017. "Analyses of CO2 mitigation roadmap in China’s power industry: Using a Backcasting Model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 644-653.
    12. Duan, Hongbo & Mo, Jianlei & Fan, Ying & Wang, Shouyang, 2018. "Achieving China's energy and climate policy targets in 2030 under multiple uncertainties," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 45-60.
    13. Li, Xi & Yu, Biying, 2019. "Peaking CO2 emissions for China's urban passenger transport sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    14. Kermeli, Katerina & Edelenbosch, Oreane Y. & Crijns-Graus, Wina & van Ruijven, Bas J. & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Worrell, Ernst, 2022. "Improving material projections in Integrated Assessment Models: The use of a stock-based versus a flow-based approach for the iron and steel industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PE).
    15. An, Runying & Yu, Biying & Li, Ru & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2018. "Potential of energy savings and CO2 emission reduction in China’s iron and steel industry," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C), pages 862-880.
    16. Wang, Yanxiang & Ali Almazrooei, Shaikha & Kapsalyamova, Zhanna & Diabat, Ali & Tsai, I-Tsung, 2016. "Utility subsidy reform in Abu Dhabi: A review and a Computable General Equilibrium analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1352-1362.
    17. Kale, Rajesh V. & Pohekar, Sanjay D., 2014. "Electricity demand and supply scenarios for Maharashtra (India) for 2030: An application of long range energy alternatives planning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-13.
    18. Galiya Movkebayeva & Aliya Aktymbayeva & Yuliya Tyurina & Nurken Baikadamov & Kamar Beketova & Marija Troyanskaya & Sholpan Smagulova & Aizhan Imangaliyeva, 2020. "Energy Security and Sustainability in Eurasian Economic Union in the Terms of Economic Growth: The Case of Kazakhstan s Energy Sector up to 2040 Perspectives," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 497-503.
    19. Gao, Tianming & Shen, Lei & Shen, Ming & Liu, Litao & Chen, Fengnan & Gao, Li, 2017. "Evolution and projection of CO2 emissions for China's cement industry from 1980 to 2020," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 522-537.
    20. Lohwasser, Richard & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Relating R&D and investment policies to CCS market diffusion through two-factor learning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 439-452.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:262:y:2023:i:pb:s0360544222023179. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.