Tackling carbon peak and carbon neutrality challenges: A method with long-range energy alternatives planning system and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index Integration

China aims to carbon peak emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 in response to climate change challenges. Studying the feasibility of this goal, identifying potential gaps, and formulating corresponding emission reduction pathways are urgent issues that need to be addressed. This study creatively integrates Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index into Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System to assess energy consumption and carbon emissions in Gansu Province from 2001 to 2060, historical and scenario analysis was conducted from a novel perspective. Results indicate that the economic development effect is the most significant driving factor for the emission growth of 131.54 million tons from 2001 to 2020, and its contribution rate is 176.31 %. The leading negative driving factor is the energy intensity effect, contributing at a rate of −62.00 %. Additionally, the energy structure and industrial structure effects also play minor negative roles. Scenario analysis suggests achieving a carbon peak by 2030 requires a 29.53 % reduction in energy intensity from the 2020 baseline, with electricity consumption must reach 46.37 % and clean energy generating 64 %. Carbon peak emissions are projected to be 220.37 million tons, with reduction of carbon emissions by 123.84 million tons by 2060.