Exploring the diffusion of low-carbon power generation and energy storage technologies under electricity market reform in China: An agent-based modeling framework for power sector

Promoting the widespread adoption of multi-complementary low carbon power generation technologies is a fundamental strategy for attaining carbon neutrality within the electricity sector. In the context of electricity market reform, this study develops an agent-based modeling framework integrated simulation with optimization. The model uses agent-based simulation to analyze annual market dynamics and low-carbon technology diffusion, with a two-stage optimization for energy storage and spot market simulation. The research findings indicate: (1) For different power generation technologies, the spot market can establish differentiated average prices, making the market price of carbon-captured coal power higher than that of conventional coal power, which are advantageous in reducing the subsidies required to promote the diffusion of carbon capture technology. (2) Expanding the spot market scale and implementing differentiated capacity compensation mechanisms both promote carbon capture technology diffusion. Nevertheless, with the marginal clearing mechanism, thermal power holds a average price advantage than renewable energy. Failing to control the growth of thermal power capacity will result in increased carbon emissions. (3) After 2030, energy storage's role in balancing supply and demand grows. Storage capacity should align with renewable energy scale and the regional characteristics of wind and solar resources to prevent overbuilding and stranded assets.