IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v289y2024ics036054422303325x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Driving factors and peaking of CO2 emissions: An empirical analysis of Hunan Province

Author

Listed:
  • Tang, Liwei
  • Luo, Mansi
  • Li, Ke
  • Zhang, Fan

Abstract

Understanding the driving factors of CO2 emissions and analyzing its trend is of great significance for formulating and optimizing carbon emission reduction policies. Taking Hunan Province as an example, this study adopted the LMDI method to investigate the driving factors of CO2 emissions in 2005–2020, and then presented the strategy for peaking emissions by 2030 via the simulation method. Results show that economic activity (output), number of vehicles, power generation of standard coal, and energy intensity of the production sector are the main driving factors affecting to CO2 emissions, with an average contribution of 7.54 %, 2.27 %, 1.95 %, and −6.86 %, respectively. Simulation results show that Hunan would likely achieve carbon peaking around 2030, within the peak range of 308.5–325.2 million tons CO2 depending on the economic growth rate setting. Moreover, the industrial and energy production and processing conversion sectors are key sectors for achieving a carbon peak, with average emissions contributions exceeding 35 % and 25 % during peak years, respectively. Overall, the study proposes a simple and reliable benchmark to investigate the pathway to achieve carbon peaking and provide a reference for other provinces and countries at the same development stage to achieve carbon peaking.

Suggested Citation

  • Tang, Liwei & Luo, Mansi & Li, Ke & Zhang, Fan, 2024. "Driving factors and peaking of CO2 emissions: An empirical analysis of Hunan Province," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:289:y:2024:i:c:s036054422303325x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.129931
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S036054422303325X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2023.129931?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chen, Qingjuan & Wang, Qunwei & Zhou, Dequn & Wang, Honggang, 2023. "Drivers and evolution of low-carbon development in China's transportation industry: An integrated analytical approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
    2. Wang, Yihan & Wen, Zongguo & Lv, Xiaojun & Zhu, Junming, 2023. "The regional discrepancies in the contribution of China’s thermal power plants toward the carbon peaking target," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 337(C).
    3. Wang, Wenwen & Li, Man & Zhang, Ming, 2017. "Study on the changes of the decoupling indicator between energy-related CO2 emission and GDP in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 11-18.
    4. Cai, Liya & Luo, Ji & Wang, Minghui & Guo, Jianfeng & Duan, Jinglin & Li, Jingtao & Li, Shuo & Liu, Liting & Ren, Dangpei, 2023. "Pathways for municipalities to achieve carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality: A study based on the LEAP model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
    5. Luo, Yulong & Zeng, Weiliang & Wang, Yueqiang & Li, Danzhou & Hu, Xianbiao & Zhang, Hua, 2021. "A hybrid approach for examining the drivers of energy consumption in Shanghai," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    6. Xiang, Xiwang & Ma, Minda & Ma, Xin & Chen, Liming & Cai, Weiguang & Feng, Wei & Ma, Zhili, 2022. "Historical decarbonization of global commercial building operations in the 21st century," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    7. Yu, Ying & Dai, Yuqi & Xu, Linyu & Zheng, Hanzhong & Wu, Wenhao & Chen, Lei, 2023. "A multi-level characteristic analysis of urban agglomeration energy-related carbon emission: A case study of the Pearl River Delta," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PB).
    8. Ang, B.W & Zhang, F.Q & Choi, Ki-Hong, 1998. "Factorizing changes in energy and environmental indicators through decomposition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 489-495.
    9. Lin, Huaxing & Zhou, Ziqian & Chen, Shun & Jiang, Ping, 2023. "Clustering and assessing carbon peak statuses of typical cities in underdeveloped Western China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 329(C).
    10. Ozdemir, Ali Can, 2023. "Decomposition and decoupling analysis of carbon dioxide emissions in electricity generation by primary fossil fuels in Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    11. Ortega-Ruiz, G. & Mena-Nieto, A. & Golpe, A.A. & García-Ramos, J.E., 2022. "CO2 emissions and causal relationships in the six largest world emitters," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    12. Ang, B.W. & Liu, F.L., 2001. "A new energy decomposition method: perfect in decomposition and consistent in aggregation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 537-548.
    13. Zhang, Shufan & Zhou, Nan & Feng, Wei & Ma, Minda & Xiang, Xiwang & You, Kairui, 2023. "Pathway for decarbonizing residential building operations in the US and China beyond the mid-century," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 342(C).
    14. Ang, B. W., 2005. "The LMDI approach to decomposition analysis: a practical guide," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 867-871, May.
    15. Lu, Guanyu & Sugino, Makoto & Arimura, Toshi H. & Horie, Tetsuya, 2022. "Success and failure of the voluntary action plan: Disaggregated sector decomposition analysis of energy-related CO2 emissions in Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    16. Dolge, Kristiāna & Barisa, Aiga & Kirsanovs, Vladimirs & Blumberga, Dagnija, 2023. "The status quo of the EU transport sector: Cross-country indicator-based comparison and policy evaluation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
    17. Xiao, Kun & Yu, Bolin & Cheng, Lei & Li, Fei & Fang, Debin, 2022. "The effects of CCUS combined with renewable energy penetration under the carbon peak by an SD-CGE model: Evidence from China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).
    18. Fang, Kai & Li, Chenglin & Tang, Yiqi & He, Jianjian & Song, Junnian, 2022. "China’s pathways to peak carbon emissions: New insights from various industrial sectors," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    19. Song, Yan & Zhang, Ming, 2019. "Research on the gravity movement and mitigation potential of Asia's carbon dioxide emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 31-39.
    20. Zhong, Zhiqi & Chen, Yongqiang & Fu, Meiyan & Li, Minzhen & Yang, Kaishuo & Zeng, Lingping & Liang, Jing & Ma, Rupeng & Xie, Quan, 2023. "Role of CO2 geological storage in China's pledge to carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    21. Li, Rui & Liu, Qiqi & Cai, Weiguang & Liu, Yuan & Yu, Yanhui & Zhang, Yihao, 2023. "Echelon peaking path of China's provincial building carbon emissions: Considering peak and time constraints," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    22. Zou, Chenchen & Ma, Minda & Zhou, Nan & Feng, Wei & You, Kairui & Zhang, Shufan, 2023. "Toward carbon free by 2060: A decarbonization roadmap of operational residential buildings in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    23. Karmellos, M. & Kosmadakis, V. & Dimas, P. & Tsakanikas, A. & Fylaktos, N. & Taliotis, C. & Zachariadis, T., 2021. "A decomposition and decoupling analysis of carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation: Evidence from the EU-27 and the UK," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zou, Chenchen & Ma, Minda & Zhou, Nan & Feng, Wei & You, Kairui & Zhang, Shufan, 2023. "Toward carbon free by 2060: A decarbonization roadmap of operational residential buildings in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    2. Lu, I.J. & Lin, Sue J. & Lewis, Charles, 2007. "Decomposition and decoupling effects of carbon dioxide emission from highway transportation in Taiwan, Germany, Japan and South Korea," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3226-3235, June.
    3. de Freitas, Luciano Charlita & Kaneko, Shinji, 2011. "Decomposition of CO2 emissions change from energy consumption in Brazil: Challenges and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1495-1504, March.
    4. Zheng, Jiali & Mi, Zhifu & Coffman, D'Maris & Milcheva, Stanimira & Shan, Yuli & Guan, Dabo & Wang, Shouyang, 2019. "Regional development and carbon emissions in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 25-36.
    5. Yang, Yi & Qin, Huan, 2024. "The uncertainties of the carbon peak and the temporal and regional heterogeneity of its driving factors in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    6. Jung, Seok & An, Kyoung-Jin & Dodbiba, Gjergj & Fujita, Toyohisa, 2012. "Regional energy-related carbon emission characteristics and potential mitigation in eco-industrial parks in South Korea: Logarithmic mean Divisia index analysis based on the Kaya identity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 231-241.
    7. Petrick, Sebastian, 2013. "Carbon efficiency, technology, and the role of innovation patterns: Evidence from German plant-level microdata," Kiel Working Papers 1833, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Zbigniew Gołaś, 2022. "Changes in Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions of the Agricultural Sector in Poland from 2000 to 2019," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-18, June.
    9. Yan, Qingyou & Zhang, Qian & Zou, Xin, 2016. "Decomposition analysis of carbon dioxide emissions in China's regional thermal electricity generation, 2000–2020," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 788-794.
    10. Lin, Boqiang & Ouyang, Xiaoling, 2014. "Analysis of energy-related CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions and reduction potential in the Chinese non-metallic mineral products industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 688-697.
    11. Fernández González, P. & Landajo, M. & Presno, M.J., 2014. "Tracking European Union CO2 emissions through LMDI (logarithmic-mean Divisia index) decomposition. The activity revaluation approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 741-750.
    12. Jorge Cunha & Manuel Lopes Nunes & Fátima Lima, 2018. "Discerning the factors explaining the change in energy efficiency," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 163-179, December.
    13. Xu, Zhongwen & Tan, Shiqi & Yao, Liming & Lv, Chengwei, 2024. "Exploring water-saving potentials of US electric power transition while thirsting for carbon neutrality," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    14. Jeong, Kyonghwa & Kim, Suyi, 2013. "LMDI decomposition analysis of greenhouse gas emissions in the Korean manufacturing sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1245-1253.
    15. Yanan Chen & Sheng Lin, 2015. "Study on factors affecting energy-related per capita carbon dioxide emission by multi-sectoral of cities: a case study of Tianjin," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(2), pages 833-846, June.
    16. Fernández González, P. & Presno, M.J. & Landajo, M., 2015. "Regional and sectoral attribution to percentage changes in the European Divisia carbonization index," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1437-1452.
    17. Yeongjun Yeo & Dongnyok Shim & Jeong-Dong Lee & Jörn Altmann, 2015. "Driving Forces of CO 2 Emissions in Emerging Countries: LMDI Decomposition Analysis on China and India’s Residential Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(12), pages 1-22, December.
    18. Lior Gallo, 2023. "Electricity Intensity Convergence in the OECD Countries," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2023.10, Bank of Israel.
    19. Shan Yang & Shangkai Zhu & Gao Deng & Huan Li, 2022. "Study on Influencing Factors and Spatial Effects of Carbon Emissions Based on Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index Model: A Case Study of Hunan Province," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-19, November.
    20. Román-Collado, Rocío & Morales-Carrión, Any Viviana, 2018. "Towards a sustainable growth in Latin America: A multiregional spatial decomposition analysis of the driving forces behind CO2 emissions changes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 273-280.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:289:y:2024:i:c:s036054422303325x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.