IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v68y2017ip1p247-261.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Energy policy for low carbon development in Nigeria: A LEAP model application

Author

Listed:
  • Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent
  • Emodi, Chinenye Comfort
  • Murthy, Girish Panchakshara
  • Emodi, Adaeze Saratu Augusta

Abstract

This paper applied a scenario-based analysis to explore Nigeria's future energy demand, supply and associated GHG emissions from 2010 to 2040 using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model. The impact of different energy policies are analysed for the Nigerian energy system by considering four scenarios: the reference scenario (REF), the low-carbon moderate scenario (LCM), the low-carbon advanced scenario (LCA), and the green optimistic scenario (GO). By considering aggressive energy policies and strategies from LCM to LCA, and even more aggressive options in the GO scenario, we find that under the REF scenario energy demand is expected to reach 3,075 PJ and a corresponding increase in GHG emissions of 201.2 Mt Co2e by 2040. More aggressive policy intervention by the Nigerian government, as in the GO scenario, would lead to a decrease in energy demand (2,249 PJ) and GHG emissions (124.4 Mt Co2e) in 2040. A cost-benefit and energy system analysis were also carried out in the study.

Suggested Citation

  • Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent & Emodi, Chinenye Comfort & Murthy, Girish Panchakshara & Emodi, Adaeze Saratu Augusta, 2017. "Energy policy for low carbon development in Nigeria: A LEAP model application," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 247-261.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:68:y:2017:i:p1:p:247-261
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2016.09.118
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032116306281
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rser.2016.09.118?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Can & Chen, Jining & Wang, Ke & Zhang, Ying & Lu, Xuedu, 2008. "Comparison of CO2 emission scenarios and mitigation opportunities in China's five sectors in 2020," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1181-1194, March.
    2. Kadian, Rashmi & Dahiya, R.P. & Garg, H.P., 2007. "Energy-related emissions and mitigation opportunities from the household sector in Delhi," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6195-6211, December.
    3. Cormio, C. & Dicorato, M. & Minoia, A. & Trovato, M., 2003. "A regional energy planning methodology including renewable energy sources and environmental constraints," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 99-130, April.
    4. Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent & Boo, Kyung-Jin, 2015. "Sustainable energy development in Nigeria: Current status and policy options," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 356-381.
    5. Song, Ho-Jun & Lee, Seungmoon & Maken, Sanjeev & Ahn, Se-Woong & Park, Jin-Won & Min, Byoungryul & Koh, Wongun, 2007. "Environmental and economic assessment of the chemical absorption process in Korea using the LEAP model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 5109-5116, October.
    6. Mahumane, Gilberto & Mulder, Peter, 2016. "Introducing MOZLEAP: An integrated long-run scenario model of the emerging energy sector of Mozambique," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 275-289.
    7. Huang, Yophy & Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey & Peng, Chieh-Yu, 2011. "The long-term forecast of Taiwan’s energy supply and demand: LEAP model application," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6790-6803.
    8. van Ruijven, Bas & Urban, Frauke & Benders, René M.J. & Moll, Henri C. & van der Sluijs, Jeroen P. & de Vries, Bert & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2008. "Modeling Energy and Development: An Evaluation of Models and Concepts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 2801-2821, December.
    9. de Ia Rue du Can, Stephane & Price, Lynn, 2008. "Sectoral trends in global energy use and greenhouse gas emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1386-1403, April.
    10. Pradhan, Shreekar & Ale, Bhakta Bahadur & Amatya, Vishwa Bhusan, 2006. "Mitigation potential of greenhouse gas emission and implications on fuel consumption due to clean energy vehicles as public passenger transport in Kathmandu Valley of Nepal: A case study of trolley bu," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 1748-1760.
    11. Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.
    12. Shin, Ho-Chul & Park, Jin-Won & Kim, Ho-Seok & Shin, Eui-Soon, 2005. "Environmental and economic assessment of landfill gas electricity generation in Korea using LEAP model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1261-1270, July.
    13. Pandey, Rahul, 2002. "Energy policy modelling: agenda for developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 97-106, January.
    14. Nnaemeka Vincent Emodi & Samson D. Yusuf, 2015. "Improving Electricity Access in Nigeria: Obstacles and the Way Forward," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(1), pages 335-351.
    15. Dhakal, Shobhakar, 2003. "Implications of transportation policies on energy and environment in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(14), pages 1493-1507, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Prasad, Ravita D. & Bansal, R.C. & Raturi, Atul, 2014. "Multi-faceted energy planning: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 686-699.
    2. Ahanchian, Mohammad & Biona, Jose Bienvenido Manuel, 2014. "Energy demand, emissions forecasts and mitigation strategies modeled over a medium-range horizon: The case of the land transportation sector in Metro Manila," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 615-629.
    3. Lixiao Zhang & Yueyi Feng & Bin Chen, 2011. "Alternative Scenarios for the Development of a Low-Carbon City: A Case Study of Beijing, China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 4(12), pages 1-16, December.
    4. Chuan Tian & Guohui Feng & Shuai Li & Fuqiang Xu, 2019. "Scenario Analysis on Energy Consumption and CO 2 Emissions Reduction Potential in Building Heating Sector at Community Level," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-26, September.
    5. Mondal, Md Alam Hossain & Bryan, Elizabeth & Ringler, Claudia & Mekonnen, Dawit & Rosegrant, Mark, 2018. "Ethiopian energy status and demand scenarios: Prospects to improve energy efficiency and mitigate GHG emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 161-172.
    6. Subramanyam, Veena & Kumar, Amit & Talaei, Alireza & Mondal, Md. Alam Hossain, 2017. "Energy efficiency improvement opportunities and associated greenhouse gas abatement costs for the residential sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 795-807.
    7. Hasan Volkan Oral & Hasan Saygin, 2019. "Simulating the future energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of Turkish cement industry up to 2030 in a global context," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 24(8), pages 1461-1482, December.
    8. Nieves, J.A. & Aristizábal, A.J. & Dyner, I. & Báez, O. & Ospina, D.H., 2019. "Energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions analysis in Colombia: A LEAP model application," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 380-397.
    9. al Irsyad, M. Indra & Halog, Anthony & Nepal, Rabindra, 2018. "Estimating the impacts of financing support policies towards photovoltaic market in Indonesia: A social-energy-economy-environment (SE3) model simulation," Working Papers 2018-09, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    10. McPherson, Madeleine & Karney, Bryan, 2014. "Long-term scenario alternatives and their implications: LEAP model application of Panama׳s electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 146-157.
    11. Yu, Shiwei & Zhang, Junjie & Zheng, Shuhong & Sun, Han, 2015. "Provincial carbon intensity abatement potential estimation in China: A PSO–GA-optimized multi-factor environmental learning curve method," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 46-55.
    12. Ismael Mohammed Saeed & Ahmad Tarkhany & Younis Hama & Shwan Al-Shatri, 2023. "Environmental considerations, sustainability opportunities and Iraqi government’s energy policies: a comparative study," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(7), pages 6879-6895, July.
    13. Halkos, George & Tzeremes, Panagiotis, 2015. "Assessing greenhouse gas emissions in Estonia's energy system," MPRA Paper 66105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Hosseini, Seyed Ehsan & Wahid, Mazlan Abdul & Aghili, Nasim, 2013. "The scenario of greenhouse gases reduction in Malaysia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 400-409.
    15. Qunli Wu & Chenyang Peng, 2016. "Scenario Analysis of Carbon Emissions of China’s Electric Power Industry Up to 2030," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-18, November.
    16. Hong, Jong Ho & Kim, Jitae & Son, Wonik & Shin, Heeyoung & Kim, Nahyun & Lee, Woong Ki & Kim, Jintae, 2019. "Long-term energy strategy scenarios for South Korea: Transition to a sustainable energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 425-437.
    17. Emília Inês Come Zebra & Gilberto Mahumane & Federico Antonio Canu & Ana Cardoso, 2021. "Assessing the Greenhouse Gas Impact of a Renewable Energy Feed-in Tariff Policy in Mozambique: Towards NDC Ambition and Recommendations to Effectively Measure, Report, and Verify Its Implementation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-21, May.
    18. Park, Nyun-Bae & Yun, Sun-Jin & Jeon, Eui-Chan, 2013. "An analysis of long-term scenarios for the transition to renewable energy in the Korean electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 288-296.
    19. Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.
    20. Ugwoke, B. & Gershon, O. & Becchio, C. & Corgnati, S.P. & Leone, P., 2020. "A review of Nigerian energy access studies: The story told so far," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:68:y:2017:i:p1:p:247-261. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.