IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v94y2016icp47-55.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Building stock dynamics and its impacts on materials and energy demand in China

Author

Listed:
  • Hong, Lixuan
  • Zhou, Nan
  • Feng, Wei
  • Khanna, Nina
  • Fridley, David
  • Zhao, Yongqiang
  • Sandholt, Kaare

Abstract

China hosts a large amount of building stocks, which is nearly 50 billion square meters. Moreover, annual new construction is growing fast, representing half of the world's total. The trend is expected to continue through the year 2050. Impressive demand for new residential and commercial construction, relative shorter average building lifetime, and higher material intensities have driven massive domestic production of energy intensive building materials such as cement and steel. This paper developed a bottom-up building stock turnover model to project the growths, retrofits and retirements of China's residential and commercial building floor space from 2010 to 2050. It also applied typical material intensities and energy intensities to estimate building materials demand and energy consumed to produce these building materials. By conducting scenario analyses of building lifetime, it identified significant potentials of building materials and energy demand conservation. This study underscored the importance of addressing building material efficiency, improving building lifetime and quality, and promoting compact urban development to reduce energy and environment consequences in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Hong, Lixuan & Zhou, Nan & Feng, Wei & Khanna, Nina & Fridley, David & Zhao, Yongqiang & Sandholt, Kaare, 2016. "Building stock dynamics and its impacts on materials and energy demand in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 47-55.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:94:y:2016:i:c:p:47-55
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2016.03.024
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516301276
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.03.024?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shi, Jingcheng & Chen, Wenying & Yin, Xiang, 2016. "Modelling building’s decarbonization with application of China TIMES model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1303-1312.
    2. Liu, Xingmin & Ren, Hong & Wu, Yong & Kong, Deping, 2013. "An analysis of the demonstration projects for renewable energy application buildings in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 382-397.
    3. Ihara, Takeshi & Gustavsen, Arild & Jelle, Bjørn Petter, 2015. "Effect of facade components on energy efficiency in office buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 422-432.
    4. Li, Danny H.W. & Yang, Liu & Lam, Joseph C., 2013. "Zero energy buildings and sustainable development implications – A review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1-10.
    5. Gouveia, João Pedro & Fortes, Patrícia & Seixas, Júlia, 2012. "Projections of energy services demand for residential buildings: Insights from a bottom-up methodology," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 430-442.
    6. Zhou, Yuyu & Clarke, Leon & Eom, Jiyong & Kyle, Page & Patel, Pralit & Kim, Son H. & Dirks, James & Jensen, Erik & Liu, Ying & Rice, Jennie & Schmidt, Laurel & Seiple, Timothy, 2014. "Modeling the effect of climate change on U.S. state-level buildings energy demands in an integrated assessment framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1077-1088.
    7. Yu, Sha & Eom, Jiyong & Zhou, Yuyu & Evans, Meredydd & Clarke, Leon, 2014. "Scenarios of building energy demand for China with a detailed regional representation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 284-297.
    8. Li, Danny H.W. & Yang, Liu & Lam, Joseph C., 2012. "Impact of climate change on energy use in the built environment in different climate zones – A review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 103-112.
    9. Zhang, Wenjie & Liu, Shan & Li, Nianping & Xie, Hui & Li, Xuanqi, 2015. "Development forecast and technology roadmap analysis of renewable energy in buildings in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 395-402.
    10. Xu, Peng & Huang, Yu Joe & Miller, Norman & Schlegel, Nicole & Shen, Pengyuan, 2012. "Impacts of climate change on building heating and cooling energy patterns in California," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 792-804.
    11. Brett W. Fawley & Yi Wen, 2013. "The great Chinese housing boom," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    12. Eom, Jiyong & Clarke, Leon & Kim, Son H. & Kyle, Page & Patel, Pralit, 2012. "China's building energy demand: Long-term implications from a detailed assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 405-419.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wei Zhou & Alice Moncaster & David M Reiner & Peter Guthrie, 2019. "Estimating Lifetimes and Stock Turnover Dynamics of Urban Residential Buildings in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-18, July.
    2. Zhe Wang & Shupeng Li & Zijian Lin & Jiancong Ye & Yi Yang & Qiang Yue, 2024. "Modeling Aluminum Stocks and Flows in China until 2050 Using a Bottom-Up Approach: Business-As-Usual Scenario Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-14, September.
    3. Elshkaki, Ayman, 2019. "Material-energy-water-carbon nexus in China’s electricity generation system up to 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    4. Liang Yuan & Weisheng Lu & Yijie Wu, 2023. "Characterizing the spatiotemporal evolution of building material stock in China's Greater Bay Area: A statistical regression method," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 27(6), pages 1553-1566, December.
    5. Zhou, Wei & Moncaster, Alice & O'Neill, Eoghan & Reiner, David M. & Wang, Xinke & Guthrie, Peter, 2022. "Modelling future trends of annual embodied energy of urban residential building stock in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    6. Julien Pedneault & Guillaume Majeau‐Bettez & Stefan Pauliuk & Manuele Margni, 2022. "Sector‐specific scenarios for future stocks and flows of aluminum: An analysis based on shared socioeconomic pathways," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(5), pages 1728-1746, October.
    7. Huo, Tengfei & Xu, Linbo & Feng, Wei & Cai, Weiguang & Liu, Bingsheng, 2021. "Dynamic scenario simulations of carbon emission peak in China's city-scale urban residential building sector through 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    8. Elshkaki, Ayman, 2023. "The implications of material and energy efficiencies for the climate change mitigation potential of global energy transition scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    9. Zhang, Qi & Xu, Jin & Wang, Yujie & Hasanbeigi, Ali & Zhang, Wei & Lu, Hongyou & Arens, Marlene, 2018. "Comprehensive assessment of energy conservation and CO2 emissions mitigation in China’s iron and steel industry based on dynamic material flows," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 251-265.
    10. Qiance Liu & Litao Liu & Xiaojie Liu & Shenggong Li & Gang Liu, 2021. "Building stock dynamics and the impact of construction bubble and bust on employment in China," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(6), pages 1631-1643, December.
    11. Ruirui Zhang & Jing Guo & Dong Yang & Hiroaki Shirakawa & Feng Shi & Hiroki Tanikawa, 2022. "What matters most to the material intensity coefficient of buildings? Random forest‐based evidence from China," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(5), pages 1809-1823, October.
    12. Zhou, Wei & O'Neill, Eoghan & Moncaster, Alice & Reiner, David M. & Guthrie, Peter, 2020. "Forecasting urban residential stock turnover dynamics using system dynamics and Bayesian model averaging," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    13. Hui Li & Yanan Zheng & Guan Gong & Hongtao Guo, 2023. "A Simulation Study on Peak Carbon Emission of Public Buildings—In the Case of Henan Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-20, May.
    14. Yang, Jingjing & Deng, Zhang & Guo, Siyue & Chen, Yixing, 2023. "Development of bottom-up model to estimate dynamic carbon emission for city-scale buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    15. Zhu, Chen & Li, Xiaodong & Zhu, Weina & Gong, Wei, 2022. "Embodied carbon emissions and mitigation potential in China's building sector: An outlook to 2060," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    16. Volk, Rebekka & Müller, Richard & Reinhardt, Joachim & Schultmann, Frank, 2019. "An Integrated Material Flows, Stakeholders and Policies Approach to Identify and Exploit Regional Resource Potentials," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 292-320.
    17. Ling Zhang & Qingqing Lu & Zengwei Yuan & Songyan Jiang & Huijun Wu, 2023. "A bottom‐up modeling of metabolism of the residential building system in China toward 2050," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 27(2), pages 587-600, April.
    18. Jing Guo & Tomer Fishman & Yao Wang & Alessio Miatto & Wendy Wuyts & Licheng Zheng & Heming Wang & Hiroki Tanikawa, 2021. "Urban development and sustainability challenges chronicled by a century of construction material flows and stocks in Tiexi, China," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(1), pages 162-175, February.
    19. Jiayi Jia & Zhenyu Huang & Jianying Deng & Fang Hu & Lin Li, 2022. "Government Performance Evaluation in the Context of Carbon Neutrality: Energy-Saving of New Residential Building Projects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-17, January.
    20. Bischof, Julian & Duffy, Aidan, 2022. "Life-cycle assessment of non-domestic building stocks: A meta-analysis of current modelling methods," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    21. Linwei Pan & Minglei Zhu & Ningning Lang & Tengfei Huo, 2020. "What Is the Amount of China’s Building Floor Space from 1996 to 2014?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-17, August.
    22. Huo, Tengfei & Xu, Linbo & Liu, Bingsheng & Cai, Weiguang & Feng, Wei, 2022. "China’s commercial building carbon emissions toward 2060: An integrated dynamic emission assessment model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    23. Khanna, Nina & Fridley, David & Zhou, Nan & Karali, Nihan & Zhang, Jingjing & Feng, Wei, 2019. "Energy and CO2 implications of decarbonization strategies for China beyond efficiency: Modeling 2050 maximum renewable resources and accelerated electrification impacts," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 12-26.
    24. Burleyson, Casey D. & Iyer, Gokul & Hejazi, Mohamad & Kim, Sonny & Kyle, Page & Rice, Jennie S. & Smith, Amanda D. & Taylor, Z. Todd & Voisin, Nathalie & Xie, Yulong, 2020. "Future western U.S. building electricity consumption in response to climate and population drivers: A comparative study of the impact of model structure," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dirks, James A. & Gorrissen, Willy J. & Hathaway, John H. & Skorski, Daniel C. & Scott, Michael J. & Pulsipher, Trenton C. & Huang, Maoyi & Liu, Ying & Rice, Jennie S., 2015. "Impacts of climate change on energy consumption and peak demand in buildings: A detailed regional approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 20-32.
    2. Chung, Mo & Park, Hwa-Choon, 2015. "Comparison of building energy demand for hotels, hospitals, and offices in Korea," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(P3), pages 383-393.
    3. Mata, Érika & Wanemark, Joel & Nik, Vahid M. & Sasic Kalagasidis, Angela, 2019. "Economic feasibility of building retrofitting mitigation potentials: Climate change uncertainties for Swedish cities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 1022-1035.
    4. Li, Xiaoma & Zhou, Yuyu & Yu, Sha & Jia, Gensuo & Li, Huidong & Li, Wenliang, 2019. "Urban heat island impacts on building energy consumption: A review of approaches and findings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 407-419.
    5. Li, Wenliang & Zhou, Yuyu & Cetin, Kristen & Eom, Jiyong & Wang, Yu & Chen, Gang & Zhang, Xuesong, 2017. "Modeling urban building energy use: A review of modeling approaches and procedures," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 2445-2457.
    6. Cao, Zhi & Liu, Gang & Duan, Huabo & Xi, Fengming & Liu, Guiwen & Yang, Wei, 2019. "Unravelling the mystery of Chinese building lifetime: A calibration and verification based on dynamic material flow analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 442-452.
    7. Pan, Xunzhang & Chen, Wenying & Zhou, Sheng & Wang, Lining & Dai, Jiaquan & Zhang, Qi & Zheng, Xinzhu & Wang, Hailin, 2020. "Implications of near-term mitigation on China's long-term energy transitions for aligning with the Paris goals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    8. Wei Zhou & Alice Moncaster & David M Reiner & Peter Guthrie, 2019. "Estimating Lifetimes and Stock Turnover Dynamics of Urban Residential Buildings in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-18, July.
    9. Nnaemeka Vincent Emodi & Taha Chaiechi & ABM Rabiul Alam Beg, 2018. "The impact of climate change on electricity demand in Australia," Energy & Environment, , vol. 29(7), pages 1263-1297, November.
    10. Burleyson, Casey D. & Voisin, Nathalie & Taylor, Z. Todd & Xie, Yulong & Kraucunas, Ian, 2018. "Simulated building energy demand biases resulting from the use of representative weather stations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 516-528.
    11. Yu, Sha & Eom, Jiyong & Zhou, Yuyu & Evans, Meredydd & Clarke, Leon, 2014. "Scenarios of building energy demand for China with a detailed regional representation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 284-297.
    12. Delorit, Justin D. & Schuldt, Steven J. & Chini, Christopher M., 2020. "Evaluating an adaptive management strategy for organizational energy use under climate uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    13. Tang, Bao-Jun & Guo, Yang-Yang & Yu, Biying & Harvey, L.D. Danny, 2021. "Pathways for decarbonizing China’s building sector under global warming thresholds," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    14. Huang, Jianhua & Gurney, Kevin Robert, 2016. "The variation of climate change impact on building energy consumption to building type and spatiotemporal scale," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 137-153.
    15. Nejat, Payam & Jomehzadeh, Fatemeh & Taheri, Mohammad Mahdi & Gohari, Mohammad & Abd. Majid, Muhd Zaimi, 2015. "A global review of energy consumption, CO2 emissions and policy in the residential sector (with an overview of the top ten CO2 emitting countries)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 843-862.
    16. Leibowicz, Benjamin D. & Lanham, Christopher M. & Brozynski, Max T. & Vázquez-Canteli, José R. & Castejón, Nicolás Castillo & Nagy, Zoltan, 2018. "Optimal decarbonization pathways for urban residential building energy services," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 1311-1325.
    17. Hartin, Corinne & Link, Robert & Patel, Pralit & Mundra, Anupriya & Horowitz, Russell & Dorheim, Kalyn & Clarke, Leon, 2021. "Integrated modeling of human-earth system interactions: An application of GCAM-fusion," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    18. Langevin, J. & Reyna, J.L. & Ebrahimigharehbaghi, S. & Sandberg, N. & Fennell, P. & Nägeli, C. & Laverge, J. & Delghust, M. & Mata, É. & Van Hove, M. & Webster, J. & Federico, F. & Jakob, M. & Camaras, 2020. "Developing a common approach for classifying building stock energy models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    19. Pikas, Ergo & Thalfeldt, Martin & Kurnitski, Jarek & Liias, Roode, 2015. "Extra cost analyses of two apartment buildings for achieving nearly zero and low energy buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 623-633.
    20. Yu, Sha & Tan, Qing & Evans, Meredydd & Kyle, Page & Vu, Linh & Patel, Pralit L., 2017. "Improving building energy efficiency in India: State-level analysis of building energy efficiency policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 331-341.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:94:y:2016:i:c:p:47-55. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.