IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v325y2022ics0306261922010996.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

China’s commercial building carbon emissions toward 2060: An integrated dynamic emission assessment model

Author

Listed:
  • Huo, Tengfei
  • Xu, Linbo
  • Liu, Bingsheng
  • Cai, Weiguang
  • Feng, Wei

Abstract

Carbon-mitigation in the commercial building sector is critical to carbon peaking and carbon neutral commitment. However, there has been little scientific focus on long-term evolutionary trajectories and peak path in this sector. This study innovatively develops an integrated dynamic emission assessment model (IDEAM) by combining the system dynamics model with the bottom-up end-use energy model. Moreover, the IDEAM is combined with the scenario analysis approach to model the dynamic evolution of Chinese commercial building carbon emissions toward 2060. The results show that commercial building carbon emissions will peak at 1.28 Gigatons (Gt) of CO2 in 2037 under the baseline scenario and will advance toward 2029 with an emissions peak of 0.98 Gt CO2 under the low-carbon scenario. Cooling and lighting are the two end-uses that contribute most to the growth of carbon emissions at over 70%. These two end-uses indicate different carbon-abatement potentials across climate zones. Sensitivity analysis reveals that promoting technological progress, increasing the share of clean energy, and improving low-carbon awareness are major ways to facilitate the early realization of carbon peaks and carbon neutrality. This study provides a deeper understanding of possible emission pathways and could assist policy-makers in devising scientific carbon mitigation plans.

Suggested Citation

  • Huo, Tengfei & Xu, Linbo & Liu, Bingsheng & Cai, Weiguang & Feng, Wei, 2022. "China’s commercial building carbon emissions toward 2060: An integrated dynamic emission assessment model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:325:y:2022:i:c:s0306261922010996
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119828
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261922010996
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119828?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chiodi, Alessandro & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Rogan, Fionn & Deane, J.P. & Lavigne, Denis & Rout, Ullash K. & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P., 2013. "Modelling the impacts of challenging 2050 European climate mitigation targets on Ireland’s energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 169-189.
    2. Yang, Xi & Pang, Jun & Teng, Fei & Gong, Ruixin & Springer, Cecilia, 2021. "The environmental co-benefit and economic impact of China's low-carbon pathways: Evidence from linking bottom-up and top-down models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    3. Wang, Huan & Chen, Wenying & Shi, Jingcheng, 2018. "Low carbon transition of global building sector under 2- and 1.5-degree targets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 148-157.
    4. Zhifu Mi & Jiali Zheng & Jing Meng & Jiamin Ou & Klaus Hubacek & Zhu Liu & D’Maris Coffman & Nicholas Stern & Sai Liang & Yi-Ming Wei, 2020. "Economic development and converging household carbon footprints in China," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 3(7), pages 529-537, July.
    5. Lu, Mengxue & Lai, Joseph, 2020. "Review on carbon emissions of commercial buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    6. Hong, Lixuan & Zhou, Nan & Feng, Wei & Khanna, Nina & Fridley, David & Zhao, Yongqiang & Sandholt, Kaare, 2016. "Building stock dynamics and its impacts on materials and energy demand in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 47-55.
    7. Li, Hao & Zhao, Yuhuan & Qiao, Xiaoyong & Liu, Ya & Cao, Ye & Li, Yue & Wang, Song & Zhang, Zhonghua & Zhang, Yongfeng & Weng, Jianfeng, 2017. "Identifying the driving forces of national and regional CO2 emissions in China: Based on temporal and spatial decomposition analysis models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 522-538.
    8. Xu, Bin & Lin, Boqiang, 2016. "Reducing CO2 emissions in China's manufacturing industry: Evidence from nonparametric additive regression models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 161-173.
    9. Zhou, Nan & Price, Lynn & Yande, Dai & Creyts, Jon & Khanna, Nina & Fridley, David & Lu, Hongyou & Feng, Wei & Liu, Xu & Hasanbeigi, Ali & Tian, Zhiyu & Yang, Hongwei & Bai, Quan & Zhu, Yuezhong & Xio, 2019. "A roadmap for China to peak carbon dioxide emissions and achieve a 20% share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy by 2030," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 793-819.
    10. Zhou, W. & Moncaster, A. & Reiner, D. & Guthrie, P., 2020. "Developing a generic System Dynamics model for building stock transformation towards energy efficiency and low-carbon development," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2057, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    11. Olkkonen, Ville & Hirvonen, Janne & Heljo, Juhani & Syri, Sanna, 2021. "Effectiveness of building stock sustainability measures in a low-carbon energy system: A scenario analysis for Finland until 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    12. Tang, Bao-Jun & Guo, Yang-Yang & Yu, Biying & Harvey, L.D. Danny, 2021. "Pathways for decarbonizing China’s building sector under global warming thresholds," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    13. Eom, Jiyong & Clarke, Leon & Kim, Son H. & Kyle, Page & Patel, Pralit, 2012. "China's building energy demand: Long-term implications from a detailed assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 405-419.
    14. Chen, Han & Yang, Lei & Chen, Wenying, 2020. "Modelling national, provincial and city-level low-carbon energy transformation pathways," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    15. Tan, Xianchun & Lai, Haiping & Gu, Baihe & Zeng, Yuan & Li, Hui, 2018. "Carbon emission and abatement potential outlook in China's building sector through 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 429-439.
    16. Nan Zhou & Nina Khanna & Wei Feng & Jing Ke & Mark Levine, 2018. "Scenarios of energy efficiency and CO2 emissions reduction potential in the buildings sector in China to year 2050," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(11), pages 978-984, November.
    17. Yang, Tao & Pan, Yiqun & Yang, Yikun & Lin, Meishun & Qin, Bingyue & Xu, Peng & Huang, Zhizhong, 2017. "CO2 emissions in China's building sector through 2050: A scenario analysis based on a bottom-up model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 208-223.
    18. Yue-Jun Zhang & Xiao-Juan Bian & Weiping Tan, 2018. "The linkages of sectoral carbon dioxide emission caused by household consumption in China: evidence from the hypothetical extraction method," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1743-1775, June.
    19. Zhang, Shicong & Xu, Wei & Wang, Ke & Feng, Wei & Athienitis, Andreas & Hua, Ge & Okumiya, Masaya & Yoon, Gyuyoung & Cho, Dong woo & Iyer-Raniga, Usha & Mazria, Edward & Lyu, Yanjie, 2020. "Scenarios of energy reduction potential of zero energy building promotion in the Asia-Pacific region to year 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    20. Zhou, Nan & Fridley, David & Khanna, Nina Zheng & Ke, Jing & McNeil, Michael & Levine, Mark, 2013. "China's energy and emissions outlook to 2050: Perspectives from bottom-up energy end-use model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 51-62.
    21. Huo, Tengfei & Ma, Yuling & Xu, Linbo & Feng, Wei & Cai, Weiguang, 2022. "Carbon emissions in China's urban residential building sector through 2060: A dynamic scenario simulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    22. Yuan, Chaoqing & Liu, Sifeng & Wu, Junlong, 2009. "Research on energy-saving effect of technological progress based on Cobb-Douglas production function," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2842-2846, August.
    23. Khanna, Nina Zheng & Zhou, Nan & Fridley, David & Ke, Jing, 2016. "Quantifying the potential impacts of China's power-sector policies on coal input and CO2 emissions through 2050: A bottom-up perspective," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 128-138.
    24. Huang, Cheng & Han, Ji & Chen, Wei-Qiang, 2017. "Changing patterns and determinants of infrastructures’ material stocks in Chinese cities," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 47-53.
    25. Sang, Jingmeng & Liu, Xin & Liang, Chuanzhi & Feng, Guohui & Li, Zonghan & Wu, Xiuhui & Song, Mengmeng, 2022. "Differences between design expectations and actual operation of ground source heat pumps for green buildings in the cold region of northern China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    26. Yu, Sha & Eom, Jiyong & Zhou, Yuyu & Evans, Meredydd & Clarke, Leon, 2014. "Scenarios of building energy demand for China with a detailed regional representation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 284-297.
    27. Huang, Tao & Shi, Feng & Tanikawa, Hiroki & Fei, Jinling & Han, Ji, 2013. "Materials demand and environmental impact of buildings construction and demolition in China based on dynamic material flow analysis," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 91-101.
    28. Xu, Peng & Huang, Joe & Shen, Pengyuan & Ma, Xiaowen & Gao, Xuefei & Xu, Qiaolin & Jiang, Han & Xiang, Yong, 2013. "Commercial building energy use in six cities in Southern China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 76-89.
    29. Tarun M. Khanna & Giovanni Baiocchi & Max Callaghan & Felix Creutzig & Horia Guias & Neal R. Haddaway & Lion Hirth & Aneeque Javaid & Nicolas Koch & Sonja Laukemper & Andreas Löschel & Maria del Mar Z, 2021. "A multi-country meta-analysis on the role of behavioural change in reducing energy consumption and CO2 emissions in residential buildings," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 925-932, September.
    30. Wang, Ailun & Lin, Boqiang, 2018. "Dynamic change in energy and CO2 performance of China's commercial sector: A regional comparative study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 113-122.
    31. Huo, Tengfei & Xu, Linbo & Feng, Wei & Cai, Weiguang & Liu, Bingsheng, 2021. "Dynamic scenario simulations of carbon emission peak in China's city-scale urban residential building sector through 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shuohua Zhang & Hanning Dong & Can Lu & Wei Li, 2023. "Carbon Emission Projection and Carbon Quota Allocation in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region of China under Carbon Neutrality Vision," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-29, October.
    2. He, Yu-Jia & Tai, Ying-Di & Fakrouche, Nassim & Zhang, Chun-Lu, 2023. "Applicability evaluation of internal heat exchanger in CO2 transcritical cycle considering compressor operation boundaries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 349(C).
    3. Wang, Yuanping & Hou, Lingchun & Cai, Weiguang & Zhou, Zhaoyin & Bian, Jing, 2023. "Exploring the drivers and influencing mechanisms of urban household electricity consumption in China - Based on longitudinal data at the provincial level," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    4. Huo, Tengfei & Du, Qianxi & Xu, Linbo & Shi, Qingwei & Cong, Xiaobo & Cai, Weiguang, 2023. "Timetable and roadmap for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality of China's building sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    5. Yanyan Ke & Lu Zhou & Minglei Zhu & Yan Yang & Rui Fan & Xianrui Ma, 2023. "Scenario Prediction of Carbon Emission Peak of Urban Residential Buildings in China’s Coastal Region: A Case of Fujian Province," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-17, January.
    6. Yuxue Zhang & Rui Wang & Xingyuan Yang & He Zhang, 2023. "Can China Achieve Its Carbon Emission Peak Target? Empirical Evidence from City-Scale Driving Factors and Emission Reduction Strategies," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-21, May.
    7. Feng Lan & Zhao Hui & Jing Bian & Ying Wang & Wenxin Shen, 2022. "Ecological Well-Being Performance Evaluation and Spatio-Temporal Evolution Characteristics of Urban Agglomerations in the Yellow River Basin," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-21, November.
    8. Huo, Tengfei & Cong, Xiaobo & Cheng, Cong & Cai, Weiguang & Zuo, Jian, 2023. "What is the driving mechanism for the carbon emissions in the building sector? An integrated DEMATEL-ISM model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    9. Licandeo, Francisca & Flores, Francisco & Feijoo, Felipe, 2023. "Assessing the impacts of economy-wide emissions policies in the water, energy, and land systems considering water scarcity scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 342(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Huo, Tengfei & Xu, Linbo & Feng, Wei & Cai, Weiguang & Liu, Bingsheng, 2021. "Dynamic scenario simulations of carbon emission peak in China's city-scale urban residential building sector through 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    2. Liu, Junling & Yin, Mingjian & Xia-Hou, Qinrui & Wang, Ke & Zou, Ji, 2021. "Comparison of sectoral low-carbon transition pathways in China under the nationally determined contribution and 2 °C targets," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    3. Yang, Jingjing & Deng, Zhang & Guo, Siyue & Chen, Yixing, 2023. "Development of bottom-up model to estimate dynamic carbon emission for city-scale buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    4. Huo, Tengfei & Ma, Yuling & Xu, Linbo & Feng, Wei & Cai, Weiguang, 2022. "Carbon emissions in China's urban residential building sector through 2060: A dynamic scenario simulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    5. Yanyan Ke & Lu Zhou & Minglei Zhu & Yan Yang & Rui Fan & Xianrui Ma, 2023. "Scenario Prediction of Carbon Emission Peak of Urban Residential Buildings in China’s Coastal Region: A Case of Fujian Province," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-17, January.
    6. Huo, Tengfei & Du, Qianxi & Xu, Linbo & Shi, Qingwei & Cong, Xiaobo & Cai, Weiguang, 2023. "Timetable and roadmap for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality of China's building sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    7. Tang, Bao-Jun & Guo, Yang-Yang & Yu, Biying & Harvey, L.D. Danny, 2021. "Pathways for decarbonizing China’s building sector under global warming thresholds," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    8. Jiang, Jingjing & Ye, Bin & Liu, Junguo, 2019. "Peak of CO2 emissions in various sectors and provinces of China: Recent progress and avenues for further research," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 813-833.
    9. Xu, Guangyue & Wang, Weimin, 2020. "China’s energy consumption in construction and building sectors: An outlook to 2100," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    10. Zhu, Chen & Li, Xiaodong & Zhu, Weina & Gong, Wei, 2022. "Embodied carbon emissions and mitigation potential in China's building sector: An outlook to 2060," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    11. Chen, Huadun & Du, Qianxi & Huo, Tengfei & Liu, Peiran & Cai, Weiguang & Liu, Bingsheng, 2023. "Spatiotemporal patterns and driving mechanism of carbon emissions in China's urban residential building sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    12. Wei Zhou & Alice Moncaster & David M Reiner & Peter Guthrie, 2019. "Estimating Lifetimes and Stock Turnover Dynamics of Urban Residential Buildings in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-18, July.
    13. Li, Rui & Liu, Qiqi & Cai, Weiguang & Liu, Yuan & Yu, Yanhui & Zhang, Yihao, 2023. "Echelon peaking path of China's provincial building carbon emissions: Considering peak and time constraints," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    14. Cao, Zhi & Liu, Gang & Duan, Huabo & Xi, Fengming & Liu, Guiwen & Yang, Wei, 2019. "Unravelling the mystery of Chinese building lifetime: A calibration and verification based on dynamic material flow analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 442-452.
    15. Khanna, Nina & Fridley, David & Zhou, Nan & Karali, Nihan & Zhang, Jingjing & Feng, Wei, 2019. "Energy and CO2 implications of decarbonization strategies for China beyond efficiency: Modeling 2050 maximum renewable resources and accelerated electrification impacts," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 12-26.
    16. Ma, Minda & Ma, Xin & Cai, Wei & Cai, Weiguang, 2020. "Low carbon roadmap of residential building sector in China: Historical mitigation and prospective peak," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    17. Wang, Qian & Zhu, Hongtao, 2024. "Combined top-down and bottom-up approach for CO2 emissions estimation in building sector of beijing: Taking new energy vehicles into consideration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    18. Hui Li & Yanan Zheng & Guan Gong & Hongtao Guo, 2023. "A Simulation Study on Peak Carbon Emission of Public Buildings—In the Case of Henan Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-20, May.
    19. Zou, Chenchen & Ma, Minda & Zhou, Nan & Feng, Wei & You, Kairui & Zhang, Shufan, 2023. "Toward carbon free by 2060: A decarbonization roadmap of operational residential buildings in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    20. Linwei Pan & Minglei Zhu & Ningning Lang & Tengfei Huo, 2020. "What Is the Amount of China’s Building Floor Space from 1996 to 2014?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-17, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:325:y:2022:i:c:s0306261922010996. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.