IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v242y2019icp1022-1035.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic feasibility of building retrofitting mitigation potentials: Climate change uncertainties for Swedish cities

Author

Listed:
  • Mata, Érika
  • Wanemark, Joel
  • Nik, Vahid M.
  • Sasic Kalagasidis, Angela

Abstract

Deep and rapid decarbonization of the building sector requires energy demand reductions and the incorporation of renewable-energy sources. Energy retrofitting of existing buildings is a central strategy in climate mitigation and has often been highlighted as a cost-effective strategy. However, decisions on these strategies are often hampered by modeling assessments that are limited by contextual, methodological, parametric, input, or output constraints. Here, we present a novel methodology to investigate the solid economic feasibility in building retrofit evaluations with mitigation measures. We first calculate the variations in the energy saving potentials and costs for 13 energy saving measures and five climate change scenarios. We then compare the obtained uncertainty due to a changing climate to other uncertainties, such as the boundaries for emission inventories and energy system development.

Suggested Citation

  • Mata, Érika & Wanemark, Joel & Nik, Vahid M. & Sasic Kalagasidis, Angela, 2019. "Economic feasibility of building retrofitting mitigation potentials: Climate change uncertainties for Swedish cities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 1022-1035.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:242:y:2019:i:c:p:1022-1035
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.03.042
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261919304489
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.03.042?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Zhaohua & Lu, Milin & Wang, Jian-Cai, 2014. "Direct rebound effect on urban residential electricity use: An empirical study in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 124-132.
    2. Schleich, Joachim & Mills, Bradford & Dütschke, Elisabeth, 2014. "A brighter future? Quantifying the rebound effect in energy efficient lighting," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 35-42.
    3. Copiello, Sergio & Gabrielli, Laura & Bonifaci, Pietro, 2017. "Evaluation of energy retrofit in buildings under conditions of uncertainty: The prominence of the discount rate," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 104-117.
    4. repec:hal:gemwpa:hal-00991732 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Delzendeh, Elham & Wu, Song & Lee, Angela & Zhou, Ying, 2017. "The impact of occupants’ behaviours on building energy analysis: A research review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1061-1071.
    6. Hargreaves, Anthony & Cheng, Vicky & Deshmukh, Sandip & Leach, Matthew & Steemers, Koen, 2017. "Forecasting how residential urban form affects the regional carbon savings and costs of retrofitting and decentralized energy supply," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 186(P3), pages 549-561.
    7. Richard G. Newell & Juha Siikamäki, 2014. "Nudging Energy Efficiency Behavior: The Role of Information Labels," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(4), pages 555-598.
    8. Pilli-Sihvola, Karoliina & Aatola, Piia & Ollikainen, Markku & Tuomenvirta, Heikki, 2010. "Climate change and electricity consumption--Witnessing increasing or decreasing use and costs?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2409-2419, May.
    9. Janet L. Reyna & Mikhail V. Chester, 2017. "Energy efficiency to reduce residential electricity and natural gas use under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-12, August.
    10. Vaillancourt, Kathleen & Bahn, Olivier & Frenette, Erik & Sigvaldason, Oskar, 2017. "Exploring deep decarbonization pathways to 2050 for Canada using an optimization energy model framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 774-785.
    11. Cabeza, Luisa F. & Urge-Vorsatz, Diana & McNeil, Michael A. & Barreneche, Camila & Serrano, Susana, 2014. "Investigating greenhouse challenge from growing trends of electricity consumption through home appliances in buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 188-193.
    12. Chaturvedi, Vaibhav & Eom, Jiyong & Clarke, Leon E. & Shukla, Priyadarshi R., 2014. "Long term building energy demand for India: Disaggregating end use energy services in an integrated assessment modeling framework," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 226-242.
    13. D’Oca, Simona & Hong, Tianzhen & Langevin, Jared, 2018. "The human dimensions of energy use in buildings: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 731-742.
    14. Shi, Jingcheng & Chen, Wenying & Yin, Xiang, 2016. "Modelling building’s decarbonization with application of China TIMES model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1303-1312.
    15. Wang, Huan & Chen, Wenying & Shi, Jingcheng, 2018. "Low carbon transition of global building sector under 2- and 1.5-degree targets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 148-157.
    16. van Hooff, T. & Blocken, B. & Timmermans, H.J.P. & Hensen, J.L.M., 2016. "Analysis of the predicted effect of passive climate adaptation measures on energy demand for cooling and heating in a residential building," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 811-820.
    17. Huang, Kuo-Tsang & Hwang, Ruey-Lung, 2016. "Future trends of residential building cooling energy and passive adaptation measures to counteract climate change: The case of Taiwan," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1230-1240.
    18. Jones, Rory V. & Fuertes, Alba & Lomas, Kevin J., 2015. "The socio-economic, dwelling and appliance related factors affecting electricity consumption in domestic buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 901-917.
    19. Kotireddy, Rajesh & Hoes, Pieter-Jan & Hensen, Jan L.M., 2018. "A methodology for performance robustness assessment of low-energy buildings using scenario analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 428-442.
    20. Zhou, Yuyu & Clarke, Leon & Eom, Jiyong & Kyle, Page & Patel, Pralit & Kim, Son H. & Dirks, James & Jensen, Erik & Liu, Ying & Rice, Jennie & Schmidt, Laurel & Seiple, Timothy, 2014. "Modeling the effect of climate change on U.S. state-level buildings energy demands in an integrated assessment framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1077-1088.
    21. Dodoo, Ambrose & Gustavsson, Leif, 2016. "Energy use and overheating risk of Swedish multi-storey residential buildings under different climate scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 534-548.
    22. Eom, Jiyong & Clarke, Leon & Kim, Son H. & Kyle, Page & Patel, Pralit, 2012. "China's building energy demand: Long-term implications from a detailed assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 405-419.
    23. Mata, Érika & Sasic Kalagasidis, Angela & Johnsson, Filip, 2013. "Energy usage and technical potential for energy saving measures in the Swedish residential building stock," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 404-414.
    24. Swan, Lukas G. & Ugursal, V. Ismet, 2009. "Modeling of end-use energy consumption in the residential sector: A review of modeling techniques," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(8), pages 1819-1835, October.
    25. Burleyson, Casey D. & Voisin, Nathalie & Taylor, Z. Todd & Xie, Yulong & Kraucunas, Ian, 2018. "Simulated building energy demand biases resulting from the use of representative weather stations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 516-528.
    26. Timmons, David & Konstantinidis, Charalampos & Shapiro, Andrew M. & Wilson, Alex, 2016. "Decarbonizing residential building energy: A cost-effective approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 382-392.
    27. Mirasgedis, S. & Sarafidis, Y. & Georgopoulou, E. & Lalas, D.P. & Moschovits, M. & Karagiannis, F. & Papakonstantinou, D., 2006. "Models for mid-term electricity demand forecasting incorporating weather influences," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 208-227.
    28. Filippín, Celina & Ricard, Florencia & Flores Larsen, Silvana & Santamouris, Mattheos, 2017. "Retrospective analysis of the energy consumption of single-family dwellings in central Argentina. Retrofitting and adaptation to the climate change," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1226-1241.
    29. Nejat, Payam & Jomehzadeh, Fatemeh & Taheri, Mohammad Mahdi & Gohari, Mohammad & Abd. Majid, Muhd Zaimi, 2015. "A global review of energy consumption, CO2 emissions and policy in the residential sector (with an overview of the top ten CO2 emitting countries)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 843-862.
    30. Shen, Pengyuan & Braham, William & Yi, Yunkyu, 2019. "The feasibility and importance of considering climate change impacts in building retrofit analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 254-270.
    31. Leibowicz, Benjamin D. & Lanham, Christopher M. & Brozynski, Max T. & Vázquez-Canteli, José R. & Castejón, Nicolás Castillo & Nagy, Zoltan, 2018. "Optimal decarbonization pathways for urban residential building energy services," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 1311-1325.
    32. Li, Danny H.W. & Yang, Liu & Lam, Joseph C., 2012. "Impact of climate change on energy use in the built environment in different climate zones – A review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 103-112.
    33. Chitnis, Mona & Sorrell, Steve & Druckman, Angela & Firth, Steven K. & Jackson, Tim, 2014. "Who rebounds most? Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for different UK socioeconomic groups," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 12-32.
    34. Tettey, Uniben Yao Ayikoe & Dodoo, Ambrose & Gustavsson, Leif, 2017. "Energy use implications of different design strategies for multi-storey residential buildings under future climates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 846-860.
    35. Mata, Érika & Kalagasidis, Angela Sasic & Johnsson, Filip, 2018. "Contributions of building retrofitting in five member states to EU targets for energy savings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 759-774.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sam Hamels, 2021. "CO 2 Intensities and Primary Energy Factors in the Future European Electricity System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-30, April.
    2. Fahlstedt, Oskar & Temeljotov-Salaj, Alenka & Lohne, Jardar & Bohne, Rolf André, 2022. "Holistic assessment of carbon abatement strategies in building refurbishment literature — A scoping review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    3. Ma, Dingyuan & Li, Xiaodong & Lin, Borong & Zhu, Yimin, 2023. "An intelligent retrofit decision-making model for building program planning considering tacit knowledge and multiple objectives," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PB).
    4. Deb, C. & Schlueter, A., 2021. "Review of data-driven energy modelling techniques for building retrofit," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    5. Walker, Linus & Hischier, Illias & Schlueter, Arno, 2022. "Scenario-based robustness assessment of building system life cycle performance," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    6. Zhikun Ding & Jinze Li & Zhan Wang & Zhaoyang Xiong, 2024. "Multi-Objective Optimization of Building Envelope Retrofits Considering Future Climate Scenarios: An Integrated Approach Using Machine Learning and Climate Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-19, September.
    7. Sánchez, M.N. & Soutullo, S. & Olmedo, R. & Bravo, D. & Castaño, S. & Jiménez, M.J., 2020. "An experimental methodology to assess the climate impact on the energy performance of buildings: A ten-year evaluation in temperate and cold desert areas," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    8. Yang, Yuchen & Javanroodi, Kavan & Nik, Vahid M., 2021. "Climate change and energy performance of European residential building stocks – A comprehensive impact assessment using climate big data from the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    9. Bienvenido-Huertas, David & Sánchez-García, Daniel & Rubio-Bellido, Carlos, 2020. "Analysing natural ventilation to reduce the cooling energy consumption and the fuel poverty of social dwellings in coastal zones," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    10. Hamels, Sam & Himpe, Eline & Laverge, Jelle & Delghust, Marc & Van den Brande, Kjartan & Janssens, Arnold & Albrecht, Johan, 2021. "The use of primary energy factors and CO2 intensities for electricity in the European context - A systematic methodological review and critical evaluation of the contemporary literature," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    11. He, Qiong & Hossain, Md. Uzzal & Ng, S. Thomas & Augenbroe, Godfried, 2021. "Identifying practical sustainable retrofit measures for existing high-rise residential buildings in various climate zones through an integrated energy-cost model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    12. Clara Camarasa & Érika Mata & Juan Pablo Jiménez Navarro & Janet Reyna & Paula Bezerra & Gerd Brantes Angelkorte & Wei Feng & Faidra Filippidou & Sebastian Forthuber & Chioke Harris & Nina Holck Sandb, 2022. "A global comparison of building decarbonization scenarios by 2050 towards 1.5–2 °C targets," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    13. S. Soutullo & E. Giancola & M. J. Jiménez & J. A. Ferrer & M. N. Sánchez, 2020. "How Climate Trends Impact on the Thermal Performance of a Typical Residential Building in Madrid," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-21, January.
    14. Pulkkinen, Jari & Louis, Jean-Nicolas & Debusschere, Vincent & Pongrácz, Eva, 2024. "Near-, medium- and long-term impacts of climate change on the thermal energy consumption of buildings in Finland under RCP climate scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    15. Younes Mohammadi & Aleksey Palstev & Boštjan Polajžer & Seyed Mahdi Miraftabzadeh & Davood Khodadad, 2023. "Investigating Winter Temperatures in Sweden and Norway: Potential Relationships with Climatic Indices and Effects on Electrical Power and Energy Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-34, July.
    16. Yang, Xining & Hu, Mingming & Tukker, Arnold & Zhang, Chunbo & Huo, Tengfei & Steubing, Bernhard, 2022. "A bottom-up dynamic building stock model for residential energy transition: A case study for the Netherlands," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    17. Piccardo, Chiara & Gustavsson, Leif, 2023. "Deep energy retrofits using different retrofit materials under different scenarios: Life cycle cost and primary energy implications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Langevin, J. & Reyna, J.L. & Ebrahimigharehbaghi, S. & Sandberg, N. & Fennell, P. & Nägeli, C. & Laverge, J. & Delghust, M. & Mata, É. & Van Hove, M. & Webster, J. & Federico, F. & Jakob, M. & Camaras, 2020. "Developing a common approach for classifying building stock energy models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. Spandagos, Constantinos & Ng, Tze Ling, 2017. "Equivalent full-load hours for assessing climate change impact on building cooling and heating energy consumption in large Asian cities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 352-368.
    3. Leibowicz, Benjamin D. & Lanham, Christopher M. & Brozynski, Max T. & Vázquez-Canteli, José R. & Castejón, Nicolás Castillo & Nagy, Zoltan, 2018. "Optimal decarbonization pathways for urban residential building energy services," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 1311-1325.
    4. Pérez-Andreu, Víctor & Aparicio-Fernández, Carolina & Martínez-Ibernón, Ana & Vivancos, José-Luis, 2018. "Impact of climate change on heating and cooling energy demand in a residential building in a Mediterranean climate," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PA), pages 63-74.
    5. Nnaemeka Vincent Emodi & Taha Chaiechi & ABM Rabiul Alam Beg, 2018. "The impact of climate change on electricity demand in Australia," Energy & Environment, , vol. 29(7), pages 1263-1297, November.
    6. Satre-Meloy, Aven, 2019. "Investigating structural and occupant drivers of annual residential electricity consumption using regularization in regression models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 148-168.
    7. Asaee, S. Rasoul & Sharafian, Amir & Herrera, Omar E. & Blomerus, Paul & Mérida, Walter, 2018. "Housing stock in cold-climate countries: Conversion challenges for net zero emission buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 88-100.
    8. Yang, Xiu'e & Liu, Shuli & Zou, Yuliang & Ji, Wenjie & Zhang, Qunli & Ahmed, Abdullahi & Han, Xiaojing & Shen, Yongliang & Zhang, Shaoliang, 2022. "Energy-saving potential prediction models for large-scale building: A state-of-the-art review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    9. Hong, Lixuan & Zhou, Nan & Feng, Wei & Khanna, Nina & Fridley, David & Zhao, Yongqiang & Sandholt, Kaare, 2016. "Building stock dynamics and its impacts on materials and energy demand in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 47-55.
    10. Yang, Yuchen & Javanroodi, Kavan & Nik, Vahid M., 2021. "Climate change and energy performance of European residential building stocks – A comprehensive impact assessment using climate big data from the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    11. Nejat, Payam & Jomehzadeh, Fatemeh & Taheri, Mohammad Mahdi & Gohari, Mohammad & Abd. Majid, Muhd Zaimi, 2015. "A global review of energy consumption, CO2 emissions and policy in the residential sector (with an overview of the top ten CO2 emitting countries)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 843-862.
    12. Cao, Zhi & Liu, Gang & Duan, Huabo & Xi, Fengming & Liu, Guiwen & Yang, Wei, 2019. "Unravelling the mystery of Chinese building lifetime: A calibration and verification based on dynamic material flow analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 442-452.
    13. Bell, N.O. & Bilbao, J.I. & Kay, M. & Sproul, A.B., 2022. "Future climate scenarios and their impact on heating, ventilation and air-conditioning system design and performance for commercial buildings for 2050," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    14. Bai, Lujian & Wang, Shusheng, 2019. "Definition of new thermal climate zones for building energy efficiency response to the climate change during the past decades in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 709-719.
    15. Liu, Junling & Yin, Mingjian & Xia-Hou, Qinrui & Wang, Ke & Zou, Ji, 2021. "Comparison of sectoral low-carbon transition pathways in China under the nationally determined contribution and 2 °C targets," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    16. Ayikoe Tettey, Uniben Yao & Gustavsson, Leif, 2020. "Energy savings and overheating risk of deep energy renovation of a multi-storey residential building in a cold climate under climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    17. Zhou, Hui & Bukenya, James O., 2016. "Information inefficiency and willingness-to-pay for energy-efficient technology: A stated preference approach for China Energy Label," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 12-21.
    18. Tarroja, Brian & Chiang, Felicia & AghaKouchak, Amir & Samuelsen, Scott & Raghavan, Shuba V. & Wei, Max & Sun, Kaiyu & Hong, Tianzhen, 2018. "Translating climate change and heating system electrification impacts on building energy use to future greenhouse gas emissions and electric grid capacity requirements in California," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 522-534.
    19. Son, Hyojoo & Kim, Changwan, 2017. "Short-term forecasting of electricity demand for the residential sector using weather and social variables," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 200-207.
    20. Burleyson, Casey D. & Voisin, Nathalie & Taylor, Z. Todd & Xie, Yulong & Kraucunas, Ian, 2018. "Simulated building energy demand biases resulting from the use of representative weather stations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 516-528.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:242:y:2019:i:c:p:1022-1035. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.