IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v331y2023ics0306261922016671.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Development of bottom-up model to estimate dynamic carbon emission for city-scale buildings

Author

Listed:
  • Yang, Jingjing
  • Deng, Zhang
  • Guo, Siyue
  • Chen, Yixing

Abstract

The building sector plays a key role in achieving the goal of carbon neutrality while understanding the carbon emission trend of building stock at the city-level is challenging. This study develops a bottom-up model based on the dynamic material flow principle and urban building energy models. Combined with scenario analysis, this model can be used to predict the dynamic development of the size, composition, energy consumption and carbon emissions of building stock in city-level by 2060. Take Changsha as a case study. Five scenarios were set: baseline scenario, less building stock (LBS) scenario, advanced building standard (ABS) scenario, low power emission factor (LPEF) scenario and synergistic emission reduction (SER) scenario, which consider the reduction potential of the building stock size, power emission factors, building energy standards, and their combinations. The result shows that decreasing power emission factors, controlling the building stock size and improving building energy efficiency standards can reduce carbon emissions by 28.29%, 13.38% and 17.49% in 2060, respectively. When the above three measures are implemented simultaneously, the carbon emissions can be reduced by 47.90% and peak before 2030. Therefore, achieving carbon neutrality in the building sector requires a multi-sectoral effort.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Jingjing & Deng, Zhang & Guo, Siyue & Chen, Yixing, 2023. "Development of bottom-up model to estimate dynamic carbon emission for city-scale buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:331:y:2023:i:c:s0306261922016671
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.120410
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261922016671
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.120410?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fang, Kai & Tang, Yiqi & Zhang, Qifeng & Song, Junnian & Wen, Qi & Sun, Huaping & Ji, Chenyang & Xu, Anqi, 2019. "Will China peak its energy-related carbon emissions by 2030? Lessons from 30 Chinese provinces," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    2. Liu, Pei & Lin, Borong & Zhou, Hao & Wu, Xiaoying & Little, John C., 2020. "CO2 emissions from urban buildings at the city scale: System dynamic projections and potential mitigation policies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    3. Hong, Lixuan & Zhou, Nan & Feng, Wei & Khanna, Nina & Fridley, David & Zhao, Yongqiang & Sandholt, Kaare, 2016. "Building stock dynamics and its impacts on materials and energy demand in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 47-55.
    4. Shimoda, Yoshiyuki & Sugiyama, Minami & Nishimoto, Ryuya & Momonoki, Takashi, 2021. "Evaluating decarbonization scenarios and energy management requirement for the residential sector in Japan through bottom-up simulations of energy end-use demand in 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    5. Nan Zhou & Nina Khanna & Wei Feng & Jing Ke & Mark Levine, 2018. "Scenarios of energy efficiency and CO2 emissions reduction potential in the buildings sector in China to year 2050," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(11), pages 978-984, November.
    6. Ma, Minda & Ma, Xin & Cai, Wei & Cai, Weiguang, 2020. "Low carbon roadmap of residential building sector in China: Historical mitigation and prospective peak," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    7. Wang, Tao & Tian, Xin & Hashimoto, Seiji & Tanikawa, Hiroki, 2015. "Concrete transformation of buildings in China and implications for the steel cycle," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 205-215.
    8. Mastrucci, Alessio & Marvuglia, Antonino & Leopold, Ulrich & Benetto, Enrico, 2017. "Life Cycle Assessment of building stocks from urban to transnational scales: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 316-332.
    9. Huo, Tengfei & Xu, Linbo & Feng, Wei & Cai, Weiguang & Liu, Bingsheng, 2021. "Dynamic scenario simulations of carbon emission peak in China's city-scale urban residential building sector through 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    10. Minda Ma & Ran Yan & Weiguang Cai, 2017. "An extended STIRPAT model-based methodology for evaluating the driving forces affecting carbon emissions in existing public building sector: evidence from China in 2000–2015," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 89(2), pages 741-756, November.
    11. Guo, Siyue & Yan, Da & Hu, Shan & Zhang, Yang, 2021. "Modelling building energy consumption in China under different future scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    12. Yang, Xining & Hu, Mingming & Tukker, Arnold & Zhang, Chunbo & Huo, Tengfei & Steubing, Bernhard, 2022. "A bottom-up dynamic building stock model for residential energy transition: A case study for the Netherlands," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    13. Zhi Cao & Lei Shen & Shuai Zhong & Litao Liu & Hanxiao Kong & Yanzhi Sun, 2018. "A Probabilistic Dynamic Material Flow Analysis Model for Chinese Urban Housing Stock," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 22(2), pages 377-391, April.
    14. Tan, Xianchun & Lai, Haiping & Gu, Baihe & Zeng, Yuan & Li, Hui, 2018. "Carbon emission and abatement potential outlook in China's building sector through 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 429-439.
    15. Yang, Tao & Pan, Yiqun & Yang, Yikun & Lin, Meishun & Qin, Bingyue & Xu, Peng & Huang, Zhizhong, 2017. "CO2 emissions in China's building sector through 2050: A scenario analysis based on a bottom-up model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 208-223.
    16. Huo, Tengfei & Ma, Yuling & Xu, Linbo & Feng, Wei & Cai, Weiguang, 2022. "Carbon emissions in China's urban residential building sector through 2060: A dynamic scenario simulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    17. Zhang Deng & Yixing Chen & Xiao Pan & Zhiwen Peng & Jingjing Yang, 2021. "Integrating GIS-Based Point of Interest and Community Boundary Datasets for Urban Building Energy Modeling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-17, February.
    18. Sandberg, Nina Holck & Næss, Jan Sandstad & Brattebø, Helge & Andresen, Inger & Gustavsen, Arild, 2021. "Large potentials for energy saving and greenhouse gas emission reductions from large-scale deployment of zero emission building technologies in a national building stock," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    19. Huang, Tao & Shi, Feng & Tanikawa, Hiroki & Fei, Jinling & Han, Ji, 2013. "Materials demand and environmental impact of buildings construction and demolition in China based on dynamic material flow analysis," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 91-101.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Mei & Zeman, Abdol, 2023. "Addressing greenhouse gas emissions and optimizing power systems: A novel approach for clean electricity integration in commercial buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 352(C).
    2. Zhou, Yang & Wang, Heng & Qiu, Huanguang, 2023. "Population aging reduces carbon emissions: Evidence from China's latest three censuses," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 351(C).
    3. Liwei Qin & Wenke Zong & Kai Peng & Rongpeng Zhang, 2024. "Assessing Spatial Heterogeneity in Urban Park Vitality for a Sustainable Built Environment: A Case Study of Changsha," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-24, April.
    4. Gao, Zhihui & Zhang, Qi & Liu, Boyu & Liu, Jiangfeng & Wang, Ge & Ni, Ruiyan & Yang, Kexin, 2024. "The driving factors and mitigation strategy of CO2 emissions from China's passenger vehicle sector towards carbon neutrality," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    5. Feng Dong & Guoqing Li & Yajie Liu & Qing Xu & Caixia Li, 2023. "Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Cross-Industry Synergy of Carbon Emissions: Evidence from Key Industries in the City in Jiangsu Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-27, February.
    6. Dan, Zhaohui & Song, Aoye & Yu, Xiaojun & Zhou, Yuekuan, 2024. "Electrification-driven circular economy with machine learning-based multi-scale and cross-scale modelling approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    7. Liying Gao & Xingchao Xiang & Wenjian Chen & Riqin Nong & Qilin Zhang & Xuan Chen & Yixing Chen, 2024. "Research on Urban Street Spatial Quality Based on Street View Image Segmentation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-22, August.
    8. Liu, Xuan & Yang, Dujuan & Arentze, Theo & Wielders, Tom, 2023. "The willingness of social housing tenants to participate in natural gas-free heating systems project: Insights from a stated choice experiment in the Netherlands," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 350(C).
    9. Yunbo Liu & Wanjiang Wang & Yumeng Huang, 2024. "Prediction and Optimization Analysis of the Performance of an Office Building in an Extremely Hot and Cold Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-40, May.
    10. Yongsheng Yao & Peiyi Xu & Jue Li & Hengwu Hu & Qun Qi, 2024. "Advancements and Applications of Life Cycle Assessment in Slope Treatment: A Comprehensive Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-28, January.
    11. Jiao, Lei & Xie, Baiwei & Lu, Sijin, 2023. "Understanding the economy of natural resources: Fundamental role of natural resources in sustainable development," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    12. Ming Hu & Siavash Ghorbany, 2024. "Building Stock Models for Embodied Carbon Emissions—A Review of a Nascent Field," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-18, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Huo, Tengfei & Xu, Linbo & Liu, Bingsheng & Cai, Weiguang & Feng, Wei, 2022. "China’s commercial building carbon emissions toward 2060: An integrated dynamic emission assessment model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    2. Zhu, Chen & Li, Xiaodong & Zhu, Weina & Gong, Wei, 2022. "Embodied carbon emissions and mitigation potential in China's building sector: An outlook to 2060," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    3. Yanyan Ke & Lu Zhou & Minglei Zhu & Yan Yang & Rui Fan & Xianrui Ma, 2023. "Scenario Prediction of Carbon Emission Peak of Urban Residential Buildings in China’s Coastal Region: A Case of Fujian Province," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-17, January.
    4. Li, Rui & Liu, Qiqi & Cai, Weiguang & Liu, Yuan & Yu, Yanhui & Zhang, Yihao, 2023. "Echelon peaking path of China's provincial building carbon emissions: Considering peak and time constraints," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    5. Huo, Tengfei & Du, Qianxi & Xu, Linbo & Shi, Qingwei & Cong, Xiaobo & Cai, Weiguang, 2023. "Timetable and roadmap for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality of China's building sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    6. Huo, Tengfei & Xu, Linbo & Feng, Wei & Cai, Weiguang & Liu, Bingsheng, 2021. "Dynamic scenario simulations of carbon emission peak in China's city-scale urban residential building sector through 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    7. Liu, Junling & Yin, Mingjian & Xia-Hou, Qinrui & Wang, Ke & Zou, Ji, 2021. "Comparison of sectoral low-carbon transition pathways in China under the nationally determined contribution and 2 °C targets," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    8. Ruirui Zhang & Jing Guo & Dong Yang & Hiroaki Shirakawa & Feng Shi & Hiroki Tanikawa, 2022. "What matters most to the material intensity coefficient of buildings? Random forest‐based evidence from China," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(5), pages 1809-1823, October.
    9. Ling Zhang & Qingqing Lu & Zengwei Yuan & Songyan Jiang & Huijun Wu, 2023. "A bottom‐up modeling of metabolism of the residential building system in China toward 2050," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 27(2), pages 587-600, April.
    10. Zhang, Shufan & Zhou, Nan & Feng, Wei & Ma, Minda & Xiang, Xiwang & You, Kairui, 2023. "Pathway for decarbonizing residential building operations in the US and China beyond the mid-century," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 342(C).
    11. Chen, Huadun & Du, Qianxi & Huo, Tengfei & Liu, Peiran & Cai, Weiguang & Liu, Bingsheng, 2023. "Spatiotemporal patterns and driving mechanism of carbon emissions in China's urban residential building sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    12. Huo, Tengfei & Ma, Yuling & Xu, Linbo & Feng, Wei & Cai, Weiguang, 2022. "Carbon emissions in China's urban residential building sector through 2060: A dynamic scenario simulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    13. Jiang, Jingjing & Ye, Bin & Liu, Junguo, 2019. "Peak of CO2 emissions in various sectors and provinces of China: Recent progress and avenues for further research," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 813-833.
    14. Li, Kai & Ma, Minda & Xiang, Xiwang & Feng, Wei & Ma, Zhili & Cai, Weiguang & Ma, Xin, 2022. "Carbon reduction in commercial building operations: A provincial retrospection in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PB).
    15. Yamaguchi, Yohei & Kim, Bumjoon & Kitamura, Takuya & Akizawa, Kotone & Chen, Hemiao & Shimoda, Yoshiyuki, 2022. "Building stock energy modeling considering building system composition and long-term change for climate change mitigation of commercial building stocks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    16. Qiance Liu & Litao Liu & Xiaojie Liu & Shenggong Li & Gang Liu, 2021. "Building stock dynamics and the impact of construction bubble and bust on employment in China," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(6), pages 1631-1643, December.
    17. Haichao Feng & Ruonan Wang & He Zhang, 2022. "Research on Carbon Emission Characteristics of Rural Buildings Based on LMDI-LEAP Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-16, December.
    18. Ma, Minda & Ma, Xin & Cai, Wei & Cai, Weiguang, 2020. "Low carbon roadmap of residential building sector in China: Historical mitigation and prospective peak," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    19. Miao, Ankang & Yuan, Yue & Wu, Han & Ma, Xin & Shao, Chenyu & Xiang, Sheng, 2024. "Pathway for China's provincial carbon emission peak: A case study of the Jiangsu Province," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    20. Liang Yuan & Weisheng Lu & Yijie Wu, 2023. "Characterizing the spatiotemporal evolution of building material stock in China's Greater Bay Area: A statistical regression method," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 27(6), pages 1553-1566, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:331:y:2023:i:c:s0306261922016671. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.