Evaluating an adaptive management strategy for organizational energy use under climate uncertainty

Changing climate creates energy demand uncertainty that is essential for facility and organizational management. Energy conservation can be achieved through combinations of capital improvements and/or management strategies. One such management strategy is implementation of non-conditioning zones to reduce temperate season energy demand. In this study, we evaluate a temporally-based, non-conditioning zone policy originally developed for Kunsan Air Force Base, Korea and apply it to six locations across the contiguous United States, which coincide with major U.S. Air Force bases in various climate zones. Using projected temperature portfolios, we determine that the performance of the implemented policy is likely to change over the remainder of the century. In temperate climate zones, there is an increase in the potential non-conditioning zone by about a month. However, in a tropical climate, the potential duration for a non-conditioned zone reduces by over half by the end of the century. In addition to non-conditioning zone duration change, temporal shifts in the spring and fall seasons affect non-conditioning zone onset. The cumulative changes suggest the need for climate forecast-informed adaptive management policies to mitigate energy demand. The results of this study inform organization and facility-level energy management, suggesting adaptive management policies to address energy budget uncertainty.