IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v79y2015icp20-32.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impacts of climate change on energy consumption and peak demand in buildings: A detailed regional approach

Author

Listed:
  • Dirks, James A.
  • Gorrissen, Willy J.
  • Hathaway, John H.
  • Skorski, Daniel C.
  • Scott, Michael J.
  • Pulsipher, Trenton C.
  • Huang, Maoyi
  • Liu, Ying
  • Rice, Jennie S.

Abstract

This paper presents the results of numerous commercial and residential building simulations, with the purpose of examining the impact of climate change on peak and annual building energy consumption over the portion of the EIC (Eastern Interconnection) located in the United States. The climate change scenario considered includes changes in mean climate characteristics as well as changes in the frequency and duration of intense weather events. Simulations were performed using the BEND (Building ENergy Demand) model which is a detailed building analysis platform utilizing EnergyPlus™ as the simulation engine. Over 26,000 building configurations of different types, sizes, vintages, and characteristics representing the population of buildings within the EIC, are modeled across the three EIC time zones using the future climate from 100 target region locations, resulting in nearly 180,000 spatially relevant simulated demand profiles for three years selected to be representative of the general climate trend over the century. This approach provides a heretofore unprecedented level of specificity across multiple spectrums including spatial, temporal, and building characteristics. This capability enables the ability to perform detailed hourly impact studies of building adaptation and mitigation strategies on energy use and electricity peak demand within the context of the entire grid and economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Dirks, James A. & Gorrissen, Willy J. & Hathaway, John H. & Skorski, Daniel C. & Scott, Michael J. & Pulsipher, Trenton C. & Huang, Maoyi & Liu, Ying & Rice, Jennie S., 2015. "Impacts of climate change on energy consumption and peak demand in buildings: A detailed regional approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 20-32.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:79:y:2015:i:c:p:20-32
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2014.08.081
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544214010469
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2014.08.081?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Isaac, Morna & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2009. "Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 507-521, February.
    2. Wan, Kevin K.W. & Li, Danny H.W. & Lam, Joseph C., 2011. "Assessment of climate change impact on building energy use and mitigation measures in subtropical climates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1404-1414.
    3. Kaufmann, Robert K. & Gopal, Sucharita & Tang, Xiaojing & Raciti, Steve M. & Lyons, Paul E. & Geron, Nick & Craig, Francis, 2013. "Revisiting the weather effect on energy consumption: Implications for the impact of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1377-1384.
    4. van Ruijven, Bas & de Vries, Bert & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & van der Sluijs, Jeroen P., 2010. "A global model for residential energy use: Uncertainty in calibration to regional data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 269-282.
    5. Wan, Kevin K.W. & Li, Danny H.W. & Pan, Wenyan & Lam, Joseph C., 2012. "Impact of climate change on building energy use in different climate zones and mitigation and adaptation implications," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 274-282.
    6. Psiloglou, B.E. & Giannakopoulos, C. & Majithia, S. & Petrakis, M., 2009. "Factors affecting electricity demand in Athens, Greece and London, UK: A comparative assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1855-1863.
    7. Buck, J. & Young, D., 2007. "The potential for energy efficiency gains in the Canadian commercial building sector: A stochastic frontier study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1769-1780.
    8. Sailor, David J, 2001. "Relating residential and commercial sector electricity loads to climate—evaluating state level sensitivities and vulnerabilities," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 645-657.
    9. Liu, Long & Zhao, Jing & Liu, Xin & Wang, Zhaoxia, 2014. "Energy consumption comparison analysis of high energy efficiency office buildings in typical climate zones of China and U.S. based on correction model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 221-232.
    10. Hekkenberg, M. & Moll, H.C. & Uiterkamp, A.J.M. Schoot, 2009. "Dynamic temperature dependence patterns in future energy demand models in the context of climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1797-1806.
    11. Shimoda, Yoshiyuki & Asahi, Takahiro & Taniguchi, Ayako & Mizuno, Minoru, 2007. "Evaluation of city-scale impact of residential energy conservation measures using the detailed end-use simulation model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1617-1633.
    12. Yu, Sha & Eom, Jiyong & Zhou, Yuyu & Evans, Meredydd & Clarke, Leon, 2014. "Scenarios of building energy demand for China with a detailed regional representation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 284-297.
    13. Yang, Liu & Wan, Kevin K.W. & Li, Danny H.W. & Lam, Joseph C., 2011. "A new method to develop typical weather years in different climates for building energy use studies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 6121-6129.
    14. Ruth, Matthias & Lin, Ai-Chen, 2006. "Regional energy demand and adaptations to climate change: Methodology and application to the state of Maryland, USA," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 2820-2833, November.
    15. Zhou, Yuyu & Clarke, Leon & Eom, Jiyong & Kyle, Page & Patel, Pralit & Kim, Son H. & Dirks, James & Jensen, Erik & Liu, Ying & Rice, Jennie & Schmidt, Laurel & Seiple, Timothy, 2014. "Modeling the effect of climate change on U.S. state-level buildings energy demands in an integrated assessment framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1077-1088.
    16. Lam, Joseph C. & Wan, Kevin K.W. & Lam, Tony N.T. & Wong, S.L., 2010. "An analysis of future building energy use in subtropical Hong Kong," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1482-1490.
    17. Chung, Mo & Park, Hwa-Choon, 2010. "Development of a software package for community energy system assessment – Part I: Building a load estimator," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 2767-2776.
    18. Eom, Jiyong & Clarke, Leon & Kim, Son H. & Kyle, Page & Patel, Pralit, 2012. "China's building energy demand: Long-term implications from a detailed assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 405-419.
    19. Lee, Wen-Shing & Kung, Chung-Kuan, 2011. "Using climate classification to evaluate building energy performance," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1797-1801.
    20. Pao, Hsiao-Tien & Fu, Hsin-Chia & Tseng, Cheng-Lung, 2012. "Forecasting of CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in China using an improved grey model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 400-409.
    21. Gouveia, João Pedro & Fortes, Patrícia & Seixas, Júlia, 2012. "Projections of energy services demand for residential buildings: Insights from a bottom-up methodology," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 430-442.
    22. Li, Danny H.W. & Yang, Liu & Lam, Joseph C., 2012. "Impact of climate change on energy use in the built environment in different climate zones – A review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 103-112.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chung, Mo & Park, Hwa-Choon, 2015. "Comparison of building energy demand for hotels, hospitals, and offices in Korea," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(P3), pages 383-393.
    2. Yuanzheng Li & Wenjing Wang & Yating Wang & Yashu Xin & Tian He & Guosong Zhao, 2020. "A Review of Studies Involving the Effects of Climate Change on the Energy Consumption for Building Heating and Cooling," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(1), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Burleyson, Casey D. & Voisin, Nathalie & Taylor, Z. Todd & Xie, Yulong & Kraucunas, Ian, 2018. "Simulated building energy demand biases resulting from the use of representative weather stations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 516-528.
    4. Huang, Jianhua & Gurney, Kevin Robert, 2016. "The variation of climate change impact on building energy consumption to building type and spatiotemporal scale," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 137-153.
    5. Waite, Michael & Cohen, Elliot & Torbey, Henri & Piccirilli, Michael & Tian, Yu & Modi, Vijay, 2017. "Global trends in urban electricity demands for cooling and heating," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 786-802.
    6. Hong, Lixuan & Zhou, Nan & Feng, Wei & Khanna, Nina & Fridley, David & Zhao, Yongqiang & Sandholt, Kaare, 2016. "Building stock dynamics and its impacts on materials and energy demand in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 47-55.
    7. Li, Danny H.W. & Yang, Liu & Lam, Joseph C., 2012. "Impact of climate change on energy use in the built environment in different climate zones – A review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 103-112.
    8. Salari, Mahmoud & Javid, Roxana J., 2016. "Residential energy demand in the United States: Analysis using static and dynamic approaches," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 637-649.
    9. James McFarland & Yuyu Zhou & Leon Clarke & Patrick Sullivan & Jesse Colman & Wendy Jaglom & Michelle Colley & Pralit Patel & Jiyon Eom & Son Kim & G. Kyle & Peter Schultz & Boddu Venkatesh & Juanita , 2015. "Impacts of rising air temperatures and emissions mitigation on electricity demand and supply in the United States: a multi-model comparison," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 131(1), pages 111-125, July.
    10. Nnaemeka Vincent Emodi & Taha Chaiechi & ABM Rabiul Alam Beg, 2018. "The impact of climate change on electricity demand in Australia," Energy & Environment, , vol. 29(7), pages 1263-1297, November.
    11. Kheiri, Farshad & Haberl, Jeff S. & Baltazar, Juan-Carlos, 2023. "Impact of outdoor humidity conditions on building energy performance and environmental footprint in the degree days-based climate classification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    12. Salari, Mahmoud & Javid, Roxana J., 2017. "Modeling household energy expenditure in the United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 822-832.
    13. Wang, Yaoping & Bielicki, Jeffrey M., 2018. "Acclimation and the response of hourly electricity loads to meteorological variables," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 473-485.
    14. Mukhopadhyay, Sayanti & Nateghi, Roshanak, 2017. "Climate sensitivity of end-use electricity consumption in the built environment: An application to the state of Florida, United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 688-700.
    15. Jianhua Huang & Kevin Robert Gurney, 2016. "Impact of climate change on U.S. building energy demand: sensitivity to spatiotemporal scales, balance point temperature, and population distribution," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 171-185, July.
    16. Olonscheck, Mady & Walther, Carsten & Lüdeke, Matthias & Kropp, Jürgen P., 2015. "Feasibility of energy reduction targets under climate change: The case of the residential heating energy sector of the Netherlands," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P1), pages 560-569.
    17. Li, Xiaoma & Zhou, Yuyu & Yu, Sha & Jia, Gensuo & Li, Huidong & Li, Wenliang, 2019. "Urban heat island impacts on building energy consumption: A review of approaches and findings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 407-419.
    18. Matthew Ranson & Lauren Morris & Alex Kats-Rubin, 2014. "Climate Change and Space Heating Energy Demand: A Review of the Literature," NCEE Working Paper Series 201407, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Dec 2014.
    19. Francisco Ralston Fonseca & Paulina Jaramillo & Mario Bergés & Edson Severnini, 2019. "Seasonal effects of climate change on intra-day electricity demand patterns," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 435-451, June.
    20. Spandagos, Constantinos & Ng, Tze Ling, 2017. "Equivalent full-load hours for assessing climate change impact on building cooling and heating energy consumption in large Asian cities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 352-368.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:79:y:2015:i:c:p:20-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.