IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v148y2021ipas0301421520306200.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Where does all the biofuel go? Fuel efficiency gains and its effects on global agricultural production

Author

Listed:
  • Dumortier, Jerome
  • Carriquiry, Miguel
  • Elobeid, Amani

Abstract

Increasing biofuel production over the last decade and biofuel policies in Brazil, the European Union, and the United States have changed the global agricultural landscape in terms of land-use, commodity prices, and trade. Increasing fuel efficiency and electrification of the vehicle stock is projected to lower gasoline, diesel, and biofuel demand in the future. In this analysis, we quantify the effects of a 30% reduction in ethanol consumption in the U.S. and the European Union triggered by higher vehicle fleet fuel efficiency on global agricultural markets. Our results show decreases in global commodity prices by 1.9%–6.6% and a slight decrease in global cropland by 0.3%. Major changes occur in trade patterns with U.S. corn exports increasing by 30.3%. Global greenhouse gas emissions are lower due to the overall reduction in cropland. Gasoline and diesel consumption of the vehicle fleet is not changing rapidly but is a long-term process because vehicles are on average in operation for 10 or more years. Consequently, there are important long-term policy implications from changes in fuel efficiency requirements or ethanol blending limits that affect commodity prices, trade, and greenhouse gas emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Dumortier, Jerome & Carriquiry, Miguel & Elobeid, Amani, 2021. "Where does all the biofuel go? Fuel efficiency gains and its effects on global agricultural production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:148:y:2021:i:pa:s0301421520306200
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111909
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421520306200
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111909?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jacinto F. Fabiosa & John C. Beghin & Fengxia Dong & JAmani Elobeid & Simla Tokgoz & Tun-Hsiang Yu, 2010. "Land Allocation Effects of the Global Ethanol Surge: Predictions from the International FAPRI Model," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 86(4), pages 687-706.
    2. Bielen, David A. & Newell, Richard G. & Pizer, William A., 2018. "Who did the ethanol tax credit benefit? An event analysis of subsidy incidence," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 1-14.
    3. David Zilberman & Gal Hochman & Deepak Rajagopal & Steve Sexton & Govinda Timilsina, 2013. "The Impact of Biofuels on Commodity Food Prices: Assessment of Findings," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(2), pages 275-281.
    4. Ben H. Blomendahl & Richard K. Perrin & Bruce B. Johnson, 2011. "The Impact of Ethanol Plants on Surrounding Farmland Values: A Case Study," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 87(2), pages 223-232.
    5. Beckman, Jayson, 2015. "Biofuel Use in International Markets: The Importance of Trade," Economic Information Bulletin 262114, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    6. Roman Keeney & Thomas W. Hertel, 2009. "The Indirect Land Use Impacts of United States Biofuel Policies: The Importance of Acreage, Yield, and Bilateral Trade Responses," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(4), pages 895-909.
    7. Hu, Kejia & Chen, Yuche, 2016. "Technological growth of fuel efficiency in european automobile market 1975–2015," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 142-148.
    8. Pouliot, Sébastien & Babcock, Bruce A., 2017. "Feasibility of meeting increased biofuel mandates with E85," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 194-200.
    9. Elobeid, Amani & Carriquiry, Miguel A. & Demotier, Jerome & Rosas, Juan (Francisco) & Mulik, Kranti & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Hayes, Dermot J. & Babcock, Bruce A., 2013. "Biofuel Expansion, Fertilizer Use and GHG Emissions: Unintended Consequences of Mitigation Policies," Staff General Research Papers Archive 37415, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    10. Du Xiaodong & Hennessy David & Edwards William A., 2008. "Does a Rising Biofuels Tide Raise All Boats? A Study of Cash Rent Determinants for Iowa Farmland under Hay and Pasture," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-25, December.
    11. Moncada, J.A. & Verstegen, J.A. & Posada, J.A. & Junginger, M. & Lukszo, Z. & Faaij, A. & Weijnen, M., 2018. "Exploring policy options to spur the expansion of ethanol production and consumption in Brazil: An agent-based modeling approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 619-641.
    12. Amani Elobeid & Simla Tokgoz, 2008. "Removing Distortions in the U.S. Ethanol Market: What Does It Imply for the United States and Brazil?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(4), pages 918-932.
    13. Schmitt, William F. & Szklo, Alexandre & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2011. "Policies for improving the efficiency of the Brazilian light-duty vehicle fleet and their implications for fuel use, greenhouse gas emissions and land use," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3163-3176, June.
    14. Bo Xiong & John C. Beghin, 2017. "Stringent Maximum Residue Limits, Protectionism, and Competitiveness: The Cases of the US and Canada," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: John Christopher Beghin (ed.), Nontariff Measures and International Trade, chapter 12, pages 193-207, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Condon, Nicole & Klemick, Heather & Wolverton, Ann, 2015. "Impacts of ethanol policy on corn prices: A review and meta-analysis of recent evidence," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 63-73.
    16. Teresa Serra & David Zilberman & José M. Gil & Barry K. Goodwin, 2011. "Nonlinearities in the U.S. corn‐ethanol‐oil‐gasoline price system," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 42(1), pages 35-45, January.
    17. Jerome Dumortier & Dermot J. Hayes & Miguel Carriquiry & Fengxia Dong & Xiaodong Du & Amani Elobeid & Jacinto F. Fabiosa & Simla Tokgoz, 2011. "Sensitivity of Carbon Emission Estimates from Indirect Land-Use Change," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(4), pages 673-673.
    18. Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid & Jerome Dumortier & Ryan Goodrich, 2020. "Incorporating Sub‐National Brazilian Agricultural Production and Land‐Use into U.S. Biofuel Policy Evaluation," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(3), pages 497-523, September.
    19. Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2013. "Identifying Supply and Demand Elasticities of Agricultural Commodities: Implications for the US Ethanol Mandate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2265-2295, October.
    20. Searchinger, Timothy & Heimlich, Ralph & Houghton, R. A. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Tokgoz, Simla & Hayes, Dermot J. & Yu, Hun-Hsiang, 2008. "Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12881, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    21. Westbrook, Jessica & Barter, Garrett E. & Manley, Dawn K. & West, Todd H., 2014. "A parametric analysis of future ethanol use in the light-duty transportation sector: Can the US meet its Renewable Fuel Standard goals without an enforcement mechanism?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 419-431.
    22. Dumortier, Jerome & Hayes, Dermot J. & Carriquiry, Miguel & Dong, Fengxia & Du, Xiaodong & Elobeid, Amani E. & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Martin, Pamela A. & Mulik, Kranti, 2012. "The effects of potential changes in United States beef production on global grazing systems and greenhouse gas emissions," ISU General Staff Papers 201206010700001000, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    23. Du, Xiaodong & Hennessy, David A. & Edwards, William M., 2008. "Does a Rising Biofuels Tide Raise All Boats? A Study of Cash Rent Determinants for Iowa Farmland Under," Staff General Research Papers Archive 34483, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jerome Dumortier & Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid, 2021. "Impact of climate change on global agricultural markets under different shared socioeconomic pathways," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(6), pages 963-984, November.
    2. Dumortier, Jerome & Elobeid, Amani & Carriquiry, Miguel, 2022. "Light-duty vehicle fleet electrification in the United States and its effects on global agricultural markets," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    3. Gao, Yixuan & Malone, Trey & Schaefer, K. Aleks & Myers, Robert J., 2023. "Disentangling Short-Run COVID-19 Price Impact Pathways in the US Corn Market," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 48(2), May.
    4. Xi He & Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid & Dermot Hayes & Minghao Li & Wendong Zhang, 2022. "China's corn and biofuel policies and agricultural trade: Projections from an international agricultural commodity market model," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 970-989, October.
    5. Dumortier, Jerome & Elobeid, Amani, 2021. "Effects of a carbon tax in the United States on agricultural markets and carbon emissions from land-use change," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    6. Liya Hau & Huiming Zhu & Muhammad Shahbaz & Ke Huang, 2023. "Quantile Dependence between Crude Oil and China’s Biofuel Feedstock Commodity Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-17, June.
    7. Abrhám, Josef & Vošta, Milan & Čajka, Peter & Rubáček, Filip, 2021. "The specifics of selected agricultural commodities in international trade," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 7(2), June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dumortier, Jerome & Elobeid, Amani, 2021. "Effects of a carbon tax in the United States on agricultural markets and carbon emissions from land-use change," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    2. Dumortier, Jerome & Elobeid, Amani E. & Carriquiry, Miguel A., 2018. "Assessing the impact of closing global commodity yield gaps on food production and land-use change emissions from biofuels," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 273875, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Dumortier, Jerome & Elobeid, Amani & Carriquiry, Miguel, 2022. "Light-duty vehicle fleet electrification in the United States and its effects on global agricultural markets," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    4. Jerome Dumortier & Amani Elobeid, 2020. "Effects of the Energy Innovation and Carbon Dividend Act on U.S. and Global Agricultural Markets," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 20-wp598, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    5. Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid & Jerome Dumortier & Ryan Goodrich, 2020. "Incorporating Sub‐National Brazilian Agricultural Production and Land‐Use into U.S. Biofuel Policy Evaluation," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(3), pages 497-523, September.
    6. Jerome Dumortier & Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid, 2023. "Interactions Between U.S. Vehicle Electrification, Climate Change, and Global Agricultural Markets," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(1), pages 99-123, January.
    7. Catherine L. Kling & Raymond W. Arritt & Gray Calhoun & David A. Keiser, 2016. "Research Needs and Challenges in the FEW System: Coupling Economic Models with Agronomic, Hydrologic, and Bioenergy Models for Sustainable Food, Energy, and Water Systems," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 16-wp563, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    8. Jerome Dumortier & Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid, 2021. "Impact of climate change on global agricultural markets under different shared socioeconomic pathways," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(6), pages 963-984, November.
    9. Elobeid, Amani E. & Carriquiry, Miguel & Dumortier, Jerome & Rosas, Francisco & Mulik, Kranti & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Hayes, Dermot J. & Babcock, Bruce A., 2013. "Biofuel Expansion, Fertilizer Use, and GHG Emissions: Unintended Consequences of Mitigation Policies," ISU General Staff Papers 201301010800001013, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    10. Condon, Nicole & Klemick, Heather & Wolverton, Ann, 2015. "Impacts of ethanol policy on corn prices: A review and meta-analysis of recent evidence," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 63-73.
    11. Bo Xiong & John C. Beghin, 2017. "Stringent Maximum Residue Limits, Protectionism, and Competitiveness: The Cases of the US and Canada," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: John Christopher Beghin (ed.), Nontariff Measures and International Trade, chapter 12, pages 193-207, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Debnath, Deepayan & Whistance, Jarrett & Thompson, Wyatt & Binfield, Julian, 2017. "Complement or substitute: Ethanol’s uncertain relationship with gasoline under alternative petroleum price and policy scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 385-397.
    13. Catherine L. Kling & Raymond W. Arritt & Gray Calhoun & David A. Keiser, 2017. "Integrated Assessment Models of the Food, Energy, and Water Nexus: A Review and an Outline of Research Needs," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 143-163, October.
    14. Gao, Yixuan & Malone, Trey & Schaefer, K. Aleks & Myers, Robert J., 2023. "Disentangling Short-Run COVID-19 Price Impact Pathways in the US Corn Market," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 48(2), May.
    15. Stephen P. Holland & Jonathan E. Hughes & Christopher R. Knittel & Nathan C. Parker, 2013. "Unintended Consequences of Transportation Carbon Policies: Land-Use, Emissions, and Innovation," NBER Working Papers 19636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Amani Elobeid & Miguel Carriquiry & Jerome Dumortier & David Swenson & Dermot J. Hayes, 2021. "China‐U.S. trade dispute and its impact on global agricultural markets, the U.S. economy, and greenhouse gas emissions," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 647-672, September.
    17. María Blanco & Marcel Adenäuer & Shailesh Shrestha & Arno Becker, 2012. "Methodology to assess EU Biofuel Policies: The CAPRI Approach," JRC Research Reports JRC80037, Joint Research Centre.
    18. Bilgili, Faik & Kocak, Emrah & Kuskaya, Sevda & Bulut, Umit, 2022. "Co-movements and causalities between ethanol production and corn prices in the USA: New evidence from wavelet transform analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    19. Christiane Baumeister & Reinhard Ellwanger & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Did the Renewable Fuel Standard Shift Market Expectations of the Price of Ethanol?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6282, CESifo.
    20. Kauffman, Nathan & Dumortier, Jerome & Hayes, Dermot J. & Brown, Robert C. & Laird, David, 2014. "Producing energy while sequestering carbon? The relationship between biochar and agricultural productivity," ISU General Staff Papers 201404010700001488, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:148:y:2021:i:pa:s0301421520306200. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.