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Light-duty vehicle fleet electrification in the United States and its effects on global agricultural markets

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  • Dumortier, Jerome
  • Elobeid, Amani
  • Carriquiry, Miguel

Abstract

Electrification of the light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet in the United States (U.S.) decreases the long-term demand for maize ethanol. This analysis assesses the consequences of accelerated penetration of electric vehicles into the U.S. LDV fleet on global food production, prices, land-use, and carbon emissions. Population and income growth are framed around Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). The scenarios progressively increase the 2050 sales share of electric LDVs to 100%. The results indicate a maximum price decline of 9.5% for maize and a significant increase in U.S. maize exports. The fleet electrification also leads to a decline in global cropland compared to the baseline by up to 4.4 million hectares at the end of the projection period. Mean GHG reductions in the 100% LDV sales scenario range from 39.4% to 52.0% of 2019 emissions from gasoline LDVs depending on the SSP. Thus, transportation policies supporting additional electric vehicles reduce food prices and carbon emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Dumortier, Jerome & Elobeid, Amani & Carriquiry, Miguel, 2022. "Light-duty vehicle fleet electrification in the United States and its effects on global agricultural markets," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:200:y:2022:i:c:s0921800922001987
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107536
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    2. Jerome Dumortier & Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid, 2023. "Interactions Between U.S. Vehicle Electrification, Climate Change, and Global Agricultural Markets," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(1), pages 99-123, January.
    3. Dumortier, Jerome, 2024. "Vehicle electrification and fuel economy policies: Impacts on agricultural land-use in the United States," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).

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