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Analysis and projection of energy consumption in Ecuador: Energy efficiency policies in the transportation sector

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  • Castro Verdezoto, Pedro L.
  • Vidoza, Jorge A.
  • Gallo, Waldyr L.R.

Abstract

A forecast model for the Ecuador energy sector was elaborated, by using LEAP model, this study aims to analyze the behavior of the energy matrix depending on energy forecast and efficiency policy scenarios, applying a bottom-up analysis and considering the latest politics/infrastructure planning background in Ecuador. The model and considerations proposed will result in a final energy consumption of 158 million BOE in 2030, in which the transportation sector is the main energy consumer. Regarding Ecuador energy planning, of which a critical point is the hydroelectricity available due to the commissioning of new hydro power plants, estimated at 63,513 Gwh in 2030, this value is 3.25 times that generated in 2010. In addition, the energy saving of 15 million BOE is forecast, as well as the reduction in GHG emission related to that saving due to the energy efficiency program PEC, which replaces LPG stoves with induction stoves in Ecuadorian households. Results point out that energy efficiency policies for the transportation sector would reduce oil products (2.97% in the high growth scenario), which could be reallocated to the industrial sector. Finally, another critical point is the rapid decline in the oil self-sufficiency, estimated at 15 years counted from 2030.

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  • Castro Verdezoto, Pedro L. & Vidoza, Jorge A. & Gallo, Waldyr L.R., 2019. "Analysis and projection of energy consumption in Ecuador: Energy efficiency policies in the transportation sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:134:y:2019:i:c:s030142151930535x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.110948
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    4. Terneus Páez, Carlos Francisco & Viteri Salazar, Oswaldo, 2020. "Analysis of agro-food transport in Ecuador faced with a possible reduction in the subsidy of diesel," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    5. Ramirez, A.D. & Boero, A. & Rivela, B. & Melendres, A.M. & Espinoza, S. & Salas, D.A., 2020. "Life cycle methods to analyze the environmental sustainability of electricity generation in Ecuador: Is decarbonization the right path?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    6. Chiriboga, Gonzalo & Chamba, Rommel & Garcia, Andrés & Heredia-Fonseca, Roberto & Montero- Calderón, Carolina & Carvajal C, Ghem, 2023. "Useful energy is a meaningful approach to building the decarbonization: A case of study of the Ecuadorian transport sector," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 76-87.
    7. Icaza-Alvarez, Daniel & Jurado, Francisco & Tostado-Véliz, Marcos & Arevalo, Paúl, 2022. "Decarbonization of the Galapagos Islands. Proposal to transform the energy system into 100% renewable by 2050," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 199-220.
    8. Lin, Boqiang & Wang, Xia, 2021. "Does low-carbon travel intention really lead to actual low-carbon travel? Evidence from urban residents in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 743-756.
    9. Espinoza, Vicente Sebastian & Fontalvo, Javier & Martí-Herrero, Jaime & Miguel, Luis Javier & Mediavilla, Margarita, 2022. "Analysis of energy future pathways for Ecuador facing the prospects of oil availability using a system dynamics model. Is degrowth inevitable?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).

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