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Long-Term Electricity Supply and Demand Forecast (2018–2040): A LEAP Model Application towards a Sustainable Power Generation System in Ecuador

Author

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  • Luis Rivera-González

    (Department of Energy and Fuels, Mining and Energy Engineering School, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28003 Madrid, Spain)

  • David Bolonio

    (Department of Energy and Fuels, Mining and Energy Engineering School, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28003 Madrid, Spain)

  • Luis F. Mazadiego

    (Department of Energy and Fuels, Mining and Energy Engineering School, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28003 Madrid, Spain)

  • Robert Valencia-Chapi

    (Department of Energy, Industrial Engineering School, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28006 Madrid, Spain)

Abstract

This research assesses the Ecuadorian power generation system, estimating the electricity supply and demand forecast until 2040. For this purpose, three potential alternative scenarios were analyzed using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) System; S1: Business As Usual; S2: Power Generation Master Plan; and S3: Sustainable Power Generation System. The main goal of this study is to analyze the possible alternatives for electricity supply and demand, fuel consumption, and the future structure of the Ecuadorian power generation system to transform the current system based on petroleum fuels into a sustainable system that consumes natural gas, and progressively introduces renewable power generation plants such as solar, wind, biomass, and hydroelectric until 2040. According to the estimated results through the inclusion of sustainable energy policies, S3 scenario relative to S1 scenario could reduce the average CO 2 equivalent (CO 2 e) emissions by 11.72%, the average production costs by 9.78%, and the average petroleum fuel consumption by 15.95%. Consequently, a correct energy transition contributes to the protection of the environment and public health and has a direct effect on economic savings for the state, which benefits to improve the citizen’s quality of life.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Rivera-González & David Bolonio & Luis F. Mazadiego & Robert Valencia-Chapi, 2019. "Long-Term Electricity Supply and Demand Forecast (2018–2040): A LEAP Model Application towards a Sustainable Power Generation System in Ecuador," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-19, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:19:p:5316-:d:271007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Luis Rivera-González & David Bolonio & Luis F. Mazadiego & Sebastián Naranjo-Silva & Kenny Escobar-Segovia, 2020. "Long-Term Forecast of Energy and Fuels Demand Towards a Sustainable Road Transport Sector in Ecuador (2016–2035): A LEAP Model Application," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-26, January.
    2. Ren, Fang-rong & Tian, Ze & Liu, Jingjing & Shen, Yu-ting, 2020. "Analysis of CO2 emission reduction contribution and efficiency of China’s solar photovoltaic industry: Based on Input-output perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    3. Yousef Alhumaid & Khalid Khan & Fahad Alismail & Muhammad Khalid, 2021. "Multi-Input Nonlinear Programming Based Deterministic Optimization Framework for Evaluating Microgrids with Optimal Renewable-Storage Energy Mix," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-15, May.
    4. Calikoglu, Umit & Aydinalp Koksal, Merih, 2023. "A pathway to achieve the net zero emissions target for the public electricity and heat production sector: A case study for Türkiye," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    5. Eunjeong Choi & Soohwan Cho & Dong Keun Kim, 2020. "Power Demand Forecasting using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Deep-Learning Model for Monitoring Energy Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-14, February.
    6. Guendalina Anzolin & Amir Lebdioui, 2021. "Three Dimensions of Green Industrial Policy in the Context of Climate Change and Sustainable Development," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 33(2), pages 371-405, April.
    7. Arévalo, Paul & Cano, Antonio & Jurado, Francisco, 2024. "Large-scale integration of renewable energies by 2050 through demand prediction with ANFIS, Ecuador case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).

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