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Introducing MOZLEAP: an integrated long-run scenario model of the emerging energy sector of Mozambique

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  • Mahumane, Gilberto
  • Mulder, Peter

Abstract

Since recently Mozambique is actively developing its large reserves of coal, natural gas and hydropower. Against this background, we present in this paper the first integrated long-run scenario model of the Mozambican energy sector. Our model makes use of the LEAP framework and is calibrated on the basis of recently developed local energy statistics, demographic and urbanization trends as well as cross-country based GDP elasticities for biomass consumption, sector structure and vehicle ownership. We develop four scenarios to evaluate the impact of the anticipated surge in natural resources exploration on aggregate trends in energy supply and demand, the energy infrastructure and economic growth in Mozambique. Our analysis shows that until 2030, primary energy production is likely to increase at least six-fold, and probably much more. This is roughly 10 times the expected increase in energy demand; most of the increase in energy production is destined for export. As a result, Mozambique is rapidly developing into an important player at international energy markets. Therefore, a major challenge for energy policy in Mozambique is to strike a balance in meeting domestic and international demand for energy, such that energy production benefits the entire Mozambican population.

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  • Mahumane, Gilberto & Mulder, Peter, 2015. "Introducing MOZLEAP: an integrated long-run scenario model of the emerging energy sector of Mozambique," MPRA Paper 65967, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:65967
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    Cited by:

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    2. Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent & Chaiechi, Taha & Alam Beg, A.B.M. Rabiul, 2019. "A techno-economic and environmental assessment of long-term energy policies and climate variability impact on the energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 329-346.
    3. Emília Inês Come Zebra & Gilberto Mahumane & Federico Antonio Canu & Ana Cardoso, 2021. "Assessing the Greenhouse Gas Impact of a Renewable Energy Feed-in Tariff Policy in Mozambique: Towards NDC Ambition and Recommendations to Effectively Measure, Report, and Verify Its Implementation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-21, May.
    4. Perrotton, Florian & Massol, Olivier, 2020. "Rate-of-return regulation to unlock natural gas pipeline deployment: Insights from a Mozambican project," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    5. Constantino Dário Justo & José Eduardo Tafula & Pedro Moura, 2022. "Planning Sustainable Energy Systems in the Southern African Development Community: A Review of Power Systems Planning Approaches," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-28, October.
    6. Mahumane, Gilberto & Mulder, Peter, 2015. "Mozambique Energy Outlook, 2015-2030. Data, scenarios and policy implications," MPRA Paper 65968, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Francisco Chicombo, Adélia Filosa & Musango, Josephine Kaviti, 2022. "Towards a theoretical framework for gendered energy transition at the urban household level: A case of Mozambique," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    8. Spalding-Fecher, Randall & Joyce, Brian & Winkler, Harald, 2017. "Climate change and hydropower in the Southern African Power Pool and Zambezi River Basin: System-wide impacts and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 84-97.
    9. Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent & Emodi, Chinenye Comfort & Murthy, Girish Panchakshara & Emodi, Adaeze Saratu Augusta, 2017. "Energy policy for low carbon development in Nigeria: A LEAP model application," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 247-261.
    10. Mahumane, Gilberto & Mulder, Peter, 2019. "Expanding versus greening? Long-term energy and emission transitions in Mozambique," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 145-156.
    11. Mahumane, Gilberto & Mulder, Peter, 2022. "Urbanization of energy poverty? The case of Mozambique," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mozambique; Energy Sector; Energy Modeling; LEAP; Scenarios;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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