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Introducing MOZLEAP: An integrated long-run scenario model of the emerging energy sector of Mozambique

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  • Mahumane, Gilberto
  • Mulder, Peter

Abstract

Since recently Mozambique is actively developing its large reserves of coal, natural gas and hydropower. Against this background, we present the first integrated long-run scenario model of the Mozambican energy sector. Our model, which we name MOZLEAP, is calibrated on the basis of recently developed local energy statistics, demographic and urbanization trends as well as cross-country based GDP elasticities for biomass consumption, sector structure, vehicle ownership and energy intensity. We develop four scenarios to evaluate the impact of the anticipated surge in natural resources exploration on aggregate trends in energy supply and demand, the energy infrastructure and economic growth in Mozambique. Our analysis shows that until 2030, primary energy production is likely to increase at least six-fold, and probably much more. This is roughly 10 times the expected increase in energy demand; most of the increase in energy production is destined for export. As a result, Mozambique may well become one of the leading global producers of natural gas and coal. We discuss the opportunities and challenges that this resource wealth poses for the country.

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  • Mahumane, Gilberto & Mulder, Peter, 2016. "Introducing MOZLEAP: An integrated long-run scenario model of the emerging energy sector of Mozambique," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 275-289.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:59:y:2016:i:c:p:275-289
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.08.010
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    Cited by:

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    2. Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent & Chaiechi, Taha & Alam Beg, A.B.M. Rabiul, 2019. "A techno-economic and environmental assessment of long-term energy policies and climate variability impact on the energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 329-346.
    3. Emília Inês Come Zebra & Gilberto Mahumane & Federico Antonio Canu & Ana Cardoso, 2021. "Assessing the Greenhouse Gas Impact of a Renewable Energy Feed-in Tariff Policy in Mozambique: Towards NDC Ambition and Recommendations to Effectively Measure, Report, and Verify Its Implementation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-21, May.
    4. Perrotton, Florian & Massol, Olivier, 2020. "Rate-of-return regulation to unlock natural gas pipeline deployment: Insights from a Mozambican project," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    5. Constantino Dário Justo & José Eduardo Tafula & Pedro Moura, 2022. "Planning Sustainable Energy Systems in the Southern African Development Community: A Review of Power Systems Planning Approaches," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-28, October.
    6. Mahumane, Gilberto & Mulder, Peter, 2015. "Mozambique Energy Outlook, 2015-2030. Data, scenarios and policy implications," MPRA Paper 65968, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Francisco Chicombo, Adélia Filosa & Musango, Josephine Kaviti, 2022. "Towards a theoretical framework for gendered energy transition at the urban household level: A case of Mozambique," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    8. Spalding-Fecher, Randall & Joyce, Brian & Winkler, Harald, 2017. "Climate change and hydropower in the Southern African Power Pool and Zambezi River Basin: System-wide impacts and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 84-97.
    9. Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent & Emodi, Chinenye Comfort & Murthy, Girish Panchakshara & Emodi, Adaeze Saratu Augusta, 2017. "Energy policy for low carbon development in Nigeria: A LEAP model application," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 247-261.
    10. Mahumane, Gilberto & Mulder, Peter, 2019. "Expanding versus greening? Long-term energy and emission transitions in Mozambique," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 145-156.
    11. Mahumane, Gilberto & Mulder, Peter, 2022. "Urbanization of energy poverty? The case of Mozambique," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mozambique; Energy Sector; Energy Modeling; LEAP; Scenarios;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C88 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Other Computer Software
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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