IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v107y2016icp60-77.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

At what valuation of sustainability can we abandon fossil fuels? A comprehensive multistage decision support model for electricity planning

Author

Listed:
  • Shakouri G., H.
  • Aliakbarisani, S.

Abstract

Predominance of fossil-fuel technologies and lack of enough incentives to expand sustainable technologies has intensified energy issues and the global warming problem. Combining mathematical programming and decision-making techniques, this paper proposes a novel comprehensive multistage method to insert sustainability costs in determining the optimum strategy of energy system expansion for an energy-rich developing country. Since the sustainability attributes have the same value respecting all conversion technologies, a nonlinear equal-weight data envelopment analysis is used to evaluate the technologies based on environmental, social and economic sustainability dimensions, the weightings associated with which are calculated. Sustainability costs, including pollutant emission costs, water and land utilization, etc. are then calibrated by the weightings and a mixed integer programming model is used to determine the optimum share of each technology in electricity generation for Iran, during the period of 2013–2040. The results suggest a late shift from fossil-fuel consumption by increasing the share of renewable energies. The model demonstrates that in countries with excessive fossil-fuel resources and high contribution of fossil-fuel technologies, including sustainability costs/benefits cannot lead to commercialization of renewable energy technologies, unless governments design effective incentive/tax policies, or fuel prices ascend enough again. The recent fuel price drop even deteriorates the situation.

Suggested Citation

  • Shakouri G., H. & Aliakbarisani, S., 2016. "At what valuation of sustainability can we abandon fossil fuels? A comprehensive multistage decision support model for electricity planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 60-77.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:107:y:2016:i:c:p:60-77
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.03.124
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544216303711
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2016.03.124?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E. & Liu, Pei & Georgiadis, Michael C., 2015. "An integrated stochastic multi-regional long-term energy planning model incorporating autonomous power systems and demand response," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 865-888.
    2. Shahmohammadi, M. Sadegh & Mohd. Yusuff, Rosnah & Keyhanian, Sina & Shakouri G., Hamed, 2015. "A decision support system for evaluating effects of Feed-in Tariff mechanism: Dynamic modeling of Malaysia’s electricity generation mix," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 217-229.
    3. Boubaker, K., 2012. "A review on renewable energy conceptual perspectives in North Africa using a polynomial optimization scheme," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 4298-4302.
    4. Seddighi, Amir Hossein & Ahmadi-Javid, Amir, 2015. "Integrated multiperiod power generation and transmission expansion planning with sustainability aspects in a stochastic environment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 9-18.
    5. Hainoun, A. & Seif Aldin, M. & Almoustafa, S., 2010. "Formulating an optimal long-term energy supply strategy for Syria using MESSAGE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1701-1714, April.
    6. Vaillancourt, Kathleen & Labriet, Maryse & Loulou, Richard & Waaub, Jean-Philippe, 2008. "The role of nuclear energy in long-term climate scenarios: An analysis with the World-TIMES model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2296-2307, July.
    7. Shin, Ho-Chul & Park, Jin-Won & Kim, Ho-Seok & Shin, Eui-Soon, 2005. "Environmental and economic assessment of landfill gas electricity generation in Korea using LEAP model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1261-1270, July.
    8. Kaya, Tolga & Kahraman, Cengiz, 2010. "Multicriteria renewable energy planning using an integrated fuzzy VIKOR & AHP methodology: The case of Istanbul," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 2517-2527.
    9. Oh, Tick Hui & Pang, Shen Yee & Chua, Shing Chyi, 2010. "Energy policy and alternative energy in Malaysia: Issues and challenges for sustainable growth," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 1241-1252, May.
    10. Global Energy Assessment Writing Team,, 2012. "Global Energy Assessment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107005198, September.
    11. Urban, F. & Benders, R.M.J. & Moll, H.C., 2007. "Modelling energy systems for developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3473-3482, June.
    12. Klaassen, Ger & Riahi, Keywan, 2007. "Internalizing externalities of electricity generation: An analysis with MESSAGE-MACRO," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 815-827, February.
    13. Huang, Hailun & Yan, Zheng, 2009. "Present situation and future prospect of hydropower in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(6-7), pages 1652-1656, August.
    14. Umbach, Frank, 2010. "Global energy security and the implications for the EU," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1229-1240, March.
    15. Zhang, Ling & Zhou, Peng & Newton, Sidney & Fang, Jian-xin & Zhou, De-qun & Zhang, Lu-ping, 2015. "Evaluating clean energy alternatives for Jiangsu, China: An improved multi-criteria decision making method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P1), pages 953-964.
    16. Sözen, Adnan & Alp, İhsan & Kilinc, Cuma, 2012. "Efficiency assessment of the hydro-power plants in Turkey by using Data Envelopment Analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 192-202.
    17. Boubaker, K., 2012. "Renewable energy in upper North Africa: Present versus 2025-horizon perspectives optimization using a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) framework," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 364-369.
    18. Shilpa Rao, Ilkka Keppo and Keywan Riahi, 2006. "Importance of Technological Change and Spillovers in Long-Term Climate Policy," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 123-140.
    19. Global Energy Assessment Writing Team,, 2012. "Global Energy Assessment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521182935, September.
    20. Huang, Yophy & Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey & Peng, Chieh-Yu, 2011. "The long-term forecast of Taiwan’s energy supply and demand: LEAP model application," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6790-6803.
    21. Ates, Seyithan A., 2015. "Energy efficiency and CO2 mitigation potential of the Turkish iron and steel industry using the LEAP (long-range energy alternatives planning) system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P1), pages 417-428.
    22. Diaz-Maurin, François & Giampietro, Mario, 2013. "A “Grammar” for assessing the performance of power-supply systems: Comparing nuclear energy to fossil energy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 162-177.
    23. Wei, Max & Patadia, Shana & Kammen, Daniel M., 2010. "Putting renewables and energy efficiency to work: How many jobs can the clean energy industry generate in the US?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 919-931, February.
    24. Ibrahim, Oussama & Fardoun, Farouk & Younes, Rafic & Louahlia-Gualous, Hasna & Ghandour, Mazen, 2013. "Multi-variable optimization for future electricity-plan scenarios in Lebanon," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 49-56.
    25. Chatzimouratidis, Athanasios I. & Pilavachi, Petros A., 2008. "Multicriteria evaluation of power plants impact on the living standard using the analytic hierarchy process," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1074-1089, March.
    26. Zhou, P. & Ang, B.W. & Poh, K.L., 2008. "A survey of data envelopment analysis in energy and environmental studies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 189(1), pages 1-18, August.
    27. Seiford, Lawrence M. & Zhu, Joe, 2002. "Modeling undesirable factors in efficiency evaluation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 16-20, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zahedi Rad, Vahid & Torabi, S. Ali & Shakouri G., Hamed, 2019. "Joint electricity generation and transmission expansion planning under integrated gas and power system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 523-537.
    2. Atabaki, Mohammad Saeid & Aryanpur, Vahid, 2018. "Multi-objective optimization for sustainable development of the power sector: An economic, environmental, and social analysis of Iran," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 493-507.
    3. Rodgers, Mark D. & Coit, David W. & Felder, Frank A. & Carlton, Annmarie, 2018. "Generation expansion planning considering health and societal damages – A simulation-based optimization approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 951-963.
    4. Ahmad, Salman & Nadeem, Abid & Akhanova, Gulzhanat & Houghton, Tom & Muhammad-Sukki, Firdaus, 2017. "Multi-criteria evaluation of renewable and nuclear resources for electricity generation in Kazakhstan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 1880-1891.
    5. Manzoor, Davood & Aryanpur, Vahid, 2017. "Power sector development in Iran: A retrospective optimization approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(P1), pages 330-339.
    6. Dianat, Fateme & Khodakarami, Vahid & Hosseini, Seyed-Hossein & Shakouri G, Hamed, 2022. "Combining game theory concepts and system dynamics for evaluating renewable electricity development in fossil-fuel-rich countries in the Middle East and North Africa," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 805-821.
    7. Milad Mousavian, H. & Hamed Shakouri, G. & Mashayekhi, Ali-Naghi & Kazemi, Aliyeh, 2020. "Does the short-term boost of renewable energies guarantee their stable long-term growth? Assessment of the dynamics of feed-in tariff policy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 1252-1268.
    8. He Huang & DaPeng Liang & Liang Liang & Zhen Tong, 2019. "Research on China’s Power Sustainable Transition Under Progressively Levelized Power Generation Cost Based on a Dynamic Integrated Generation–Transmission Planning Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-21, April.
    9. Zhang, Ning & Hu, Zhaoguang & Shen, Bo & He, Gang & Zheng, Yanan, 2017. "An integrated source-grid-load planning model at the macro level: Case study for China's power sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 231-246.
    10. Virgínio e Silva, Joab Oliveira & Almeida, Manuel Fonseca & da Conceição Alvim-Ferraz, Maria & Dias, Joana Maia, 2018. "Integrated production of biodiesel and bioethanol from sweet potato," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 114-120.
    11. Aryanpur, V. & Ghahremani, M. & Mamipour, S. & Fattahi, M. & Ó Gallachóir, B. & Bazilian, M.D. & Glynn, J., 2022. "Ex-post analysis of energy subsidy removal through integrated energy systems modelling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    12. Kraan, O. & Kramer, G.J. & Nikolic, I., 2018. "Investment in the future electricity system - An agent-based modelling approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 569-580.
    13. Tavana, Alireza & Emami Javid, Alireza & Houshfar, Ehsan & Mahmoudzadeh Andwari, Amin & Ashjaee, Mehdi & Shoaee, Saeed & Maghmoomi, Abtin & Marashi, Fatima, 2019. "Toward renewable and sustainable energies perspective in Iran," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1194-1216.
    14. Sajad Aliakbari Sani & Azadeh Maroufmashat & Frédéric Babonneau & Olivier Bahn & Erick Delage & Alain Haurie & Normand Mousseau & Kathleen Vaillancourt, 2022. "Energy Transition Pathways for Deep Decarbonization of the Greater Montreal Region: An Energy Optimization Framework," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-18, May.
    15. Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E. & Dagoumas, Athanasios S., 2018. "State-of-the-art generation expansion planning: A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 563-589.
    16. Büyüközkan, Gülçin & Karabulut, Yağmur, 2017. "Energy project performance evaluation with sustainability perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 549-560.
    17. Assadi, Mohammad Reza & Ataebi, Melikasadat & Ataebi, Elmira sadat & Hasani, Aliakbar, 2022. "Prioritization of renewable energy resources based on sustainable management approach using simultaneous evaluation of criteria and alternatives: A case study on Iran's electricity industry," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 820-832.
    18. Carlos Roberto de Sousa Costa & Paula Ferreira, 2023. "A Review on the Internalization of Externalities in Electricity Generation Expansion Planning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-19, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Milad Kolagar & Seyed Mohammad Hassan Hosseini & Ramin Felegari & Parviz Fattahi, 2020. "Policy-making for renewable energy sources in search of sustainable development: a hybrid DEA-FBWM approach," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 40(4), pages 485-509, December.
    2. Nieves, J.A. & Aristizábal, A.J. & Dyner, I. & Báez, O. & Ospina, D.H., 2019. "Energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions analysis in Colombia: A LEAP model application," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 380-397.
    3. Sueyoshi, Toshiyuki & Yuan, Yan & Goto, Mika, 2017. "A literature study for DEA applied to energy and environment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 104-124.
    4. Fankhauser, Samuel & Jotzo, Frank, 2017. "Economic growth and development with low-carbon energy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86850, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Gómez-Calvet, Roberto & Conesa, David & Gómez-Calvet, Ana Rosa & Tortosa-Ausina, Emili, 2014. "Energy efficiency in the European Union: What can be learned from the joint application of directional distance functions and slacks-based measures?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 137-154.
    6. Zhang, Shuwei & Bauer, Nico & Yin, Guangzhi & Xie, Xi, 2020. "Technology learning and diffusion at the global and local scales: A modeling exercise in the REMIND model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    7. Alkan, Ömer & Albayrak, Özlem Karadağ, 2020. "Ranking of renewable energy sources for regions in Turkey by fuzzy entropy based fuzzy COPRAS and fuzzy MULTIMOORA," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 712-726.
    8. Nicola Cantore & Patrick Nussbaumer & Max Wei & Daniel Kammen, 2016. "Promoting Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency in Africa: A Framework to Evaluate Employment Generation and Cost-effectiveness," Working Papers 2016.45, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    9. Mertzanis, Charilaos & Garas, Samy & Abdel-Maksoud, Ahmed, 2020. "Integrity of financial information and firms' access to energy in developing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    10. Aikaterini Papapostolou & Charikleia Karakosta & Kalliopi-Anastasia Kourti & Haris Doukas & John Psarras, 2019. "Supporting Europe’s Energy Policy Towards a Decarbonised Energy System: A Comparative Assessment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-26, July.
    11. Subramanyam, Veena & Kumar, Amit & Talaei, Alireza & Mondal, Md. Alam Hossain, 2017. "Energy efficiency improvement opportunities and associated greenhouse gas abatement costs for the residential sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 795-807.
    12. Mahumane, Gilberto & Mulder, Peter, 2016. "Introducing MOZLEAP: An integrated long-run scenario model of the emerging energy sector of Mozambique," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 275-289.
    13. Büyüközkan, Gülçin & Karabulut, Yağmur, 2017. "Energy project performance evaluation with sustainability perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 549-560.
    14. Sijm, Jos & Lehmann, Paul & Chewpreecha, Unnada & Gawel, Erik & Mercure, Jean-Francois & Pollitt, Hector & Strunz, Sebastian, 2014. "EU climate and energy policy beyond 2020: Are additional targets and instruments for renewables economically reasonable?," UFZ Discussion Papers 3/2014, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Division of Social Sciences (ÖKUS).
    15. Prasad, Ravita D. & Bansal, R.C. & Raturi, Atul, 2014. "Multi-faceted energy planning: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 686-699.
    16. Chee Tahir, Aidid & Bañares-Alcántara, René, 2012. "A knowledge representation model for the optimisation of electricity generation mixes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 77-83.
    17. Fairuz, S.M.C. & Sulaiman, M.Y. & Lim, C.H. & Mat, S. & Ali, B. & Saadatian, O. & Ruslan, M.H. & Salleh, E. & Sopian, K., 2013. "Long term strategy for electricity generation in Peninsular Malaysia – Analysis of cost and carbon footprint using MESSAGE," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 493-502.
    18. Nathalie Spittler & Ganna Gladkykh & Arnaud Diemer & Brynhildur Davidsdottir, 2019. "Understanding the Current Energy Paradigm and Energy System Models for More Sustainable Energy System Development," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-22, April.
    19. Yang, Dewei & Liu, Dandan & Huang, Anmin & Lin, Jianyi & Xu, Lingxing, 2021. "Critical transformation pathways and socio-environmental benefits of energy substitution using a LEAP scenario modeling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    20. Zurano-Cervelló, Patricia & Pozo, Carlos & Mateo-Sanz, Josep María & Jiménez, Laureano & Guillén-Gosálbez, Gonzalo, 2019. "Sustainability efficiency assessment of the electricity mix of the 28 EU member countries combining data envelopment analysis and optimized projections," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:107:y:2016:i:c:p:60-77. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.