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From 30- to 5-minute settlement rule in the NEM: An early evaluation

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  • Mwampashi, Muthe Mathias
  • Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios
  • Rai, Alan

Abstract

Australia’s National Electricity Market has shifted from 30- to 5-minute settlement (5MS)— a major regulatory reform since its inception. Using a Bayesian structural time-series model over the period 1 October 2021 to 31 May 2022, we demonstrate that despite having no immediate impact on price dynamics, 5MS eventually exerts upward pressure on spot prices over time. Price volatility remains essentially unchanged. Moreover, dispatch-weighted prices (DWPs) for flexible battery generators increase. DWPs for aggregated gas generators barely change, while DWPs for incumbent black coal-fired generators unexpectedly increase. These findings support the notion that the market is gradually adapting to 5MS. For a more effective adaptation, energy policies must be in place to lower entry barriers for flexible, dispatchable generation capacity and reduce market concentrations.

Suggested Citation

  • Mwampashi, Muthe Mathias & Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Rai, Alan, 2024. "From 30- to 5-minute settlement rule in the NEM: An early evaluation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:194:y:2024:i:c:s0301421524003252
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114305
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity spot price; 5-minute settlement; Dispatch-weighted price; Bayesian structural time series model; Regulatory change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources

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