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Agriculture, forestry, and other land-use emissions in Latin America

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  • Calvin, Katherine V.
  • Beach, Robert
  • Gurgel, Angelo
  • Labriet, Maryse
  • Loboguerrero Rodriguez, Ana Maria

Abstract

Nearly 40% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Latin America were from agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) in 2008, more than double the global fraction of AFOLU emissions. In this article, we investigate the future trajectory of AFOLU GHG emissions in Latin America, with and without efforts to mitigate, using a multi-model comparison approach. We find significant uncertainty in future emissions with and without climate policy. This uncertainty is due to differences in a variety of assumptions including (1) the role of bioenergy, (2) where and how bioenergy is produced, (3) the availability of afforestation options in climate mitigation policy, and (4) N2O and CH4 emission intensity. With climate policy, these differences in assumptions can lead to significant variance in mitigation potential, with three models indicating reductions in AFOLU GHG emissions and one model indicating modest increases in AFOLU GHG emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Calvin, Katherine V. & Beach, Robert & Gurgel, Angelo & Labriet, Maryse & Loboguerrero Rodriguez, Ana Maria, 2016. "Agriculture, forestry, and other land-use emissions in Latin America," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 615-624.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:56:y:2016:i:c:p:615-624
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2015.03.020
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Katherine Calvin & Marshall Wise & Page Kyle & Pralit Patel & Leon Clarke & Jae Edmonds, 2014. "Trade-offs of different land and bioenergy policies on the path to achieving climate targets," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 691-704, April.
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    3. Richard Loulou, 2008. "ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model. part II: mathematical formulation," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 41-66, February.
    4. Alexander Popp & Steven Rose & Katherine Calvin & Detlef Vuuren & Jan Dietrich & Marshall Wise & Elke Stehfest & Florian Humpenöder & Page Kyle & Jasper Vliet & Nico Bauer & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Dav, 2014. "Land-use transition for bioenergy and climate stabilization: model comparison of drivers, impacts and interactions with other land use based mitigation options," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 495-509, April.
    5. Rose, Steven K. & Ahammad, Helal & Eickhout, Bas & Fisher, Brian & Kurosawa, Atsushi & Rao, Shilpa & Riahi, Keywan & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2012. "Land-based mitigation in climate stabilization," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 365-380.
    6. Steven Rose & Elmar Kriegler & Ruben Bibas & Katherine Calvin & Alexander Popp & Detlef Vuuren & John Weyant, 2014. "Bioenergy in energy transformation and climate management," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 477-493, April.
    7. Marshall Wise & Kate Calvin & Page Kyle & Patrick Luckow & Jae Edmonds, 2014. "Economic And Physical Modeling Of Land Use In Gcam 3.0 And An Application To Agricultural Productivity, Land, And Terrestrial Carbon," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(02), pages 1-22.
    8. Beach, Robert H. & Birur, Dileep K. & Davis, Lauren M. & Ross, Martin T., 2011. "A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis Of U.S. Biofuels Production," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103965, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
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    7. Lucena, André F.P. & Clarke, Leon & Schaeffer, Roberto & Szklo, Alexandre & Rochedo, Pedro R.R. & Nogueira, Larissa P.P. & Daenzer, Kathryn & Gurgel, Angelo & Kitous, Alban & Kober, Tom, 2016. "Climate policy scenarios in Brazil: A multi-model comparison for energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 564-574.
    8. Juan David Alonso-Sanabria & Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia & Daniel Parra-Amado, 2023. "Unveiling the critical role of forest areas amidst climate change: The Latin American case," Borradores de Economia 1254, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agriculture and land use; Greenhouse gas emissions; Latin America;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies

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