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Electrification of the Canadian road transportation sector: A 2050 outlook with TIMES-Canada

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  • Bahn, Olivier
  • Marcy, Mathilde
  • Vaillancourt, Kathleen
  • Waaub, Jean-Philippe

Abstract

We use a newly developed bottom-up model of the entire Canadian energy system (TIMES-Canada) to assess potentials for electrification of the road transport sector. A special emphasis has been put on the modelling of the Canadian road transport, by considering a variety of vehicles for passenger and freight transportation. Besides a business-as-usual (baseline) scenario, we have analysed an energy policy scenario imposing targets for electric vehicle penetration and a climate policy scenario imposing targets for greenhouse gas emission reduction. Our analysis shows on the one hand that electric vehicles penetrate notably the passenger vehicle market after 2040 in the baseline scenario and after 2030 in the energy policy scenario (following the assumed penetration targets). On the other hand, the assumed climate policy forces a stronger penetration of electric vehicles for passenger transportation, with a progressive phasing out of internal combustion engine vehicles, whereas the latter vehicles remain dominant for freight transportation but with a shift away of fossil fuels and in favour of biofuels. A sensitivity analysis on the (assumed) evolution of electric vehicles over time confirms these general trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Bahn, Olivier & Marcy, Mathilde & Vaillancourt, Kathleen & Waaub, Jean-Philippe, 2013. "Electrification of the Canadian road transportation sector: A 2050 outlook with TIMES-Canada," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 593-606.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:62:y:2013:i:c:p:593-606
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.07.023
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    15. Kang, Jidong & Ng, Tsan Sheng & Su, Bin & Milovanoff, Alexandre, 2021. "Electrifying light-duty passenger transport for CO2 emissions reduction: A stochastic-robust input–output linear programming model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
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    17. Long, Zoe & Axsen, Jonn & Miller, Inger & Kormos, Christine, 2019. "What does Tesla mean to car buyers? Exploring the role of automotive brand in perceptions of battery electric vehicles," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 185-204.
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    19. Tian, Xuelin & An, Chunjiang & Chen, Zhikun, 2023. "The role of clean energy in achieving decarbonization of electricity generation, transportation, and heating sectors by 2050: A meta-analysis review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    20. Mekky, Maher F. & Collins, Alan R., 2024. "The Impact of state policies on electric vehicle adoption -A panel data analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    21. Ibarra-Gutiérrez, Sebastián & Bouchard, Jocelyn & Laflamme, Marcel & Fytas, Konstantinos, 2021. "Assessing the potential of quebec lithium industry: Mineral reserves, lithium-ion batteries production and greenhouse gas emissions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
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