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Electrification of the Canadian road transportation sector: A 2050 outlook with TIMES-Canada

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  • Bahn, Olivier
  • Marcy, Mathilde
  • Vaillancourt, Kathleen
  • Waaub, Jean-Philippe

Abstract

We use a newly developed bottom-up model of the entire Canadian energy system (TIMES-Canada) to assess potentials for electrification of the road transport sector. A special emphasis has been put on the modelling of the Canadian road transport, by considering a variety of vehicles for passenger and freight transportation. Besides a business-as-usual (baseline) scenario, we have analysed an energy policy scenario imposing targets for electric vehicle penetration and a climate policy scenario imposing targets for greenhouse gas emission reduction. Our analysis shows on the one hand that electric vehicles penetrate notably the passenger vehicle market after 2040 in the baseline scenario and after 2030 in the energy policy scenario (following the assumed penetration targets). On the other hand, the assumed climate policy forces a stronger penetration of electric vehicles for passenger transportation, with a progressive phasing out of internal combustion engine vehicles, whereas the latter vehicles remain dominant for freight transportation but with a shift away of fossil fuels and in favour of biofuels. A sensitivity analysis on the (assumed) evolution of electric vehicles over time confirms these general trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Bahn, Olivier & Marcy, Mathilde & Vaillancourt, Kathleen & Waaub, Jean-Philippe, 2013. "Electrification of the Canadian road transportation sector: A 2050 outlook with TIMES-Canada," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 593-606.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:62:y:2013:i:c:p:593-606
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.07.023
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    2. Kang, Jidong & Ng, Tsan Sheng & Su, Bin & Milovanoff, Alexandre, 2021. "Electrifying light-duty passenger transport for CO2 emissions reduction: A stochastic-robust input–output linear programming model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
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    16. Stergios Statharas & Yannis Moysoglou & Pelopidas Siskos & Georgios Zazias & Pantelis Capros, 2019. "Factors Influencing Electric Vehicle Penetration in the EU by 2030: A Model-Based Policy Assessment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-25, July.
    17. Blanco, Herib & Gómez Vilchez, Jonatan J. & Nijs, Wouter & Thiel, Christian & Faaij, André, 2019. "Soft-linking of a behavioral model for transport with energy system cost optimization applied to hydrogen in EU," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    18. Mekky, Maher F. & Collins, Alan R., 2024. "The Impact of state policies on electric vehicle adoption -A panel data analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
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    20. Eimantas Neniškis & Arvydas Galinis & Egidijus Norvaiša, 2021. "Improving Transport Modeling in MESSAGE Energy Planning Model: Vehicle Age Distributions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-16, November.
    21. Haider, Minza & Davis, Matthew & Kumar, Amit, 2024. "Development of a framework to assess the greenhouse gas mitigation potential from the adoption of low-carbon road vehicles in a hydrocarbon-rich region," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 358(C).
    22. Hammond, William & Axsen, Jonn & Kjeang, Erik, 2020. "How to slash greenhouse gas emissions in the freight sector: Policy insights from a technology-adoption model of Canada," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    23. Wolinetz, Michael & Axsen, Jonn, 2017. "How policy can build the plug-in electric vehicle market: Insights from the REspondent-based Preference And Constraints (REPAC) model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 238-250.

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