IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v62y2013icp593-606.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Electrification of the Canadian road transportation sector: A 2050 outlook with TIMES-Canada

Author

Listed:
  • Bahn, Olivier
  • Marcy, Mathilde
  • Vaillancourt, Kathleen
  • Waaub, Jean-Philippe

Abstract

We use a newly developed bottom-up model of the entire Canadian energy system (TIMES-Canada) to assess potentials for electrification of the road transport sector. A special emphasis has been put on the modelling of the Canadian road transport, by considering a variety of vehicles for passenger and freight transportation. Besides a business-as-usual (baseline) scenario, we have analysed an energy policy scenario imposing targets for electric vehicle penetration and a climate policy scenario imposing targets for greenhouse gas emission reduction. Our analysis shows on the one hand that electric vehicles penetrate notably the passenger vehicle market after 2040 in the baseline scenario and after 2030 in the energy policy scenario (following the assumed penetration targets). On the other hand, the assumed climate policy forces a stronger penetration of electric vehicles for passenger transportation, with a progressive phasing out of internal combustion engine vehicles, whereas the latter vehicles remain dominant for freight transportation but with a shift away of fossil fuels and in favour of biofuels. A sensitivity analysis on the (assumed) evolution of electric vehicles over time confirms these general trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Bahn, Olivier & Marcy, Mathilde & Vaillancourt, Kathleen & Waaub, Jean-Philippe, 2013. "Electrification of the Canadian road transportation sector: A 2050 outlook with TIMES-Canada," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 593-606.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:62:y:2013:i:c:p:593-606
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.07.023
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421513006666
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.07.023?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yeh, Sonia & Farrell, Alexander E. & Plevin, Richard J & Sanstad, Alan & Weyant, John, 2008. "Optimizing U.S. Mitigation Strategies for the Light-Duty Transportation Sector: What We Learn from a Bottom-Up Model," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt1td1g7qw, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    2. Van der Voort, E, 1982. "The EFOM 12C energy supply model within the EC modelling system," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 507-523.
    3. Richard Loulou, 2008. "ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model. part II: mathematical formulation," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 41-66, February.
    4. Girod, Bastien & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Deetman, Sebastiaan, 2012. "Global travel within the 2°C climate target," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 152-166.
    5. Kyle, Page & Kim, Son H., 2011. "Long-term implications of alternative light-duty vehicle technologies for global greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 3012-3024, May.
    6. Brand, Christian & Tran, Martino & Anable, Jillian, 2012. "The UK transport carbon model: An integrated life cycle approach to explore low carbon futures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 107-124.
    7. Richard Loulou & Maryse Labriet, 2008. "ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model Part I: Model structure," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 7-40, February.
    8. Schafer, Andreas & Jacoby, Henry D., 2006. "Vehicle technology under CO2 constraint: a general equilibrium analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 975-985, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tattini, Jacopo & Ramea, Kalai & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Yang, Christopher & Mulholland, Eamonn & Yeh, Sonia & Karlsson, Kenneth, 2018. "Improving the representation of modal choice into bottom-up optimization energy system models – The MoCho-TIMES model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 265-282.
    2. Hajebrahimi, Ali & Kamwa, Innocent & Huneault, Maurice, 2018. "A novel approach for plug-in electric vehicle planning and electricity load management in presence of a clean disruptive technology," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 975-985.
    3. Kang, Jidong & Ng, Tsan Sheng & Su, Bin & Milovanoff, Alexandre, 2021. "Electrifying light-duty passenger transport for CO2 emissions reduction: A stochastic-robust input–output linear programming model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    4. Aryanpur, Vahid & Balyk, Olexandr & Daly, Hannah & Ó Gallachóir, Brian & Glynn, James, 2022. "Decarbonisation of passenger light-duty vehicles using spatially resolved TIMES-Ireland Model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 316(C).
    5. Tian, Xuelin & An, Chunjiang & Chen, Zhikun, 2023. "The role of clean energy in achieving decarbonization of electricity generation, transportation, and heating sectors by 2050: A meta-analysis review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    6. Thiel, Christian & Nijs, Wouter & Simoes, Sofia & Schmidt, Johannes & van Zyl, Arnold & Schmid, Erwin, 2016. "The impact of the EU car CO2 regulation on the energy system and the role of electro-mobility to achieve transport decarbonisation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 153-166.
    7. Stergios Statharas & Yannis Moysoglou & Pelopidas Siskos & Georgios Zazias & Pantelis Capros, 2019. "Factors Influencing Electric Vehicle Penetration in the EU by 2030: A Model-Based Policy Assessment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-25, July.
    8. Larson, Paul D. & Viáfara, Jairo & Parsons, Robert V. & Elias, Arne, 2014. "Consumer attitudes about electric cars: Pricing analysis and policy implications," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 299-314.
    9. Tharsis Teoh & Oliver Kunze & Chee-Chong Teo & Yiik Diew Wong, 2018. "Decarbonisation of Urban Freight Transport Using Electric Vehicles and Opportunity Charging," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-20, September.
    10. Blanco, Herib & Gómez Vilchez, Jonatan J. & Nijs, Wouter & Thiel, Christian & Faaij, André, 2019. "Soft-linking of a behavioral model for transport with energy system cost optimization applied to hydrogen in EU," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    11. Mekky, Maher F. & Collins, Alan R., 2024. "The Impact of state policies on electric vehicle adoption -A panel data analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    12. Tattini, Jacopo & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Karlsson, Kenneth, 2018. "Reaching carbon neutral transport sector in Denmark – Evidence from the incorporation of modal shift into the TIMES energy system modeling framework," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 571-583.
    13. Ibarra-Gutiérrez, Sebastián & Bouchard, Jocelyn & Laflamme, Marcel & Fytas, Konstantinos, 2021. "Assessing the potential of quebec lithium industry: Mineral reserves, lithium-ion batteries production and greenhouse gas emissions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    14. Blanco, Herib & Nijs, Wouter & Ruf, Johannes & Faaij, André, 2018. "Potential for hydrogen and Power-to-Liquid in a low-carbon EU energy system using cost optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 617-639.
    15. Hagos, Dejene Assefa & Ahlgren, Erik O., 2020. "Exploring cost-effective transitions to fossil independent transportation in the future energy system of Denmark," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    16. Long, Zoe & Axsen, Jonn & Miller, Inger & Kormos, Christine, 2019. "What does Tesla mean to car buyers? Exploring the role of automotive brand in perceptions of battery electric vehicles," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 185-204.
    17. Vaillancourt, Kathleen & Alcocer, Yuri & Bahn, Olivier & Fertel, Camille & Frenette, Erik & Garbouj, Hichem & Kanudia, Amit & Labriet, Maryse & Loulou, Richard & Marcy, Mathilde & Neji, Yosra & Waaub,, 2014. "A Canadian 2050 energy outlook: Analysis with the multi-regional model TIMES-Canada," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 56-65.
    18. Eimantas Neniškis & Arvydas Galinis & Egidijus Norvaiša, 2021. "Improving Transport Modeling in MESSAGE Energy Planning Model: Vehicle Age Distributions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-16, November.
    19. Haider, Minza & Davis, Matthew & Kumar, Amit, 2024. "Development of a framework to assess the greenhouse gas mitigation potential from the adoption of low-carbon road vehicles in a hydrocarbon-rich region," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 358(C).
    20. Salvucci, Raffaele & Tattini, Jacopo & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Lehtilä, Antti & Karlsson, Kenneth, 2018. "Modelling transport modal shift in TIMES models through elasticities of substitution," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 740-751.
    21. Hammond, William & Axsen, Jonn & Kjeang, Erik, 2020. "How to slash greenhouse gas emissions in the freight sector: Policy insights from a technology-adoption model of Canada," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    22. Wolinetz, Michael & Axsen, Jonn, 2017. "How policy can build the plug-in electric vehicle market: Insights from the REspondent-based Preference And Constraints (REPAC) model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 238-250.
    23. Li, Weiqi & Dai, Yaping & Ma, Linwei & Hao, Han & Lu, Haiyan & Albinson, Rosemary & Li, Zheng, 2015. "Oil-saving pathways until 2030 for road freight transportation in China based on a cost-optimization model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 369-384.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pietzcker, Robert C. & Longden, Thomas & Chen, Wenying & Fu, Sha & Kriegler, Elmar & Kyle, Page & Luderer, Gunnar, 2014. "Long-term transport energy demand and climate policy: Alternative visions on transport decarbonization in energy-economy models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 95-108.
    2. van der Zwaan, Bob & Keppo, Ilkka & Johnsson, Filip, 2013. "How to decarbonize the transport sector?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 562-573.
    3. Blanco, Herib & Nijs, Wouter & Ruf, Johannes & Faaij, André, 2018. "Potential for hydrogen and Power-to-Liquid in a low-carbon EU energy system using cost optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 617-639.
    4. Vaillancourt, Kathleen & Alcocer, Yuri & Bahn, Olivier & Fertel, Camille & Frenette, Erik & Garbouj, Hichem & Kanudia, Amit & Labriet, Maryse & Loulou, Richard & Marcy, Mathilde & Neji, Yosra & Waaub,, 2014. "A Canadian 2050 energy outlook: Analysis with the multi-regional model TIMES-Canada," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 56-65.
    5. García-Gusano, Diego & Espegren, Kari & Lind, Arne & Kirkengen, Martin, 2016. "The role of the discount rates in energy systems optimisation models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 56-72.
    6. Yin, Xiang & Chen, Wenying & Eom, Jiyong & Clarke, Leon E. & Kim, Son H. & Patel, Pralit L. & Yu, Sha & Kyle, G. Page, 2015. "China's transportation energy consumption and CO2 emissions from a global perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 233-248.
    7. Hall, Lisa M.H. & Buckley, Alastair R., 2016. "A review of energy systems models in the UK: Prevalent usage and categorisation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 607-628.
    8. Ettore Bompard & Daniele Grosso & Tao Huang & Francesco Profumo & Xianzhang Lei & Duo Li, 2018. "World Decarbonization through Global Electricity Interconnections," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-29, July.
    9. Murphy, Frederic & Pierru, Axel & Smeers, Yves, 2019. "Measuring the effects of price controls using mixed complementarity models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 275(2), pages 666-676.
    10. Dai, Hancheng & Mischke, Peggy & Xie, Xuxuan & Xie, Yang & Masui, Toshihiko, 2016. "Closing the gap? Top-down versus bottom-up projections of China’s regional energy use and CO2 emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1355-1373.
    11. van der Zwaan, Bob & Kober, Tom & Calderon, Silvia & Clarke, Leon & Daenzer, Katie & Kitous, Alban & Labriet, Maryse & Lucena, André F.P. & Octaviano, Claudia & Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolas, 2016. "Energy technology roll-out for climate change mitigation: A multi-model study for Latin America," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 526-542.
    12. Matar, Walid & Murphy, Frederic & Pierru, Axel & Rioux, Bertrand, 2015. "Lowering Saudi Arabia's fuel consumption and energy system costs without increasing end consumer prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 558-569.
    13. Tattini, Jacopo & Ramea, Kalai & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Yang, Christopher & Mulholland, Eamonn & Yeh, Sonia & Karlsson, Kenneth, 2018. "Improving the representation of modal choice into bottom-up optimization energy system models – The MoCho-TIMES model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 265-282.
    14. Hache, Emmanuel & Seck, Gondia Sokhna & Simoen, Marine & Bonnet, Clément & Carcanague, Samuel, 2019. "Critical raw materials and transportation sector electrification: A detailed bottom-up analysis in world transport," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 6-25.
    15. Blanco, Herib & Gómez Vilchez, Jonatan J. & Nijs, Wouter & Thiel, Christian & Faaij, André, 2019. "Soft-linking of a behavioral model for transport with energy system cost optimization applied to hydrogen in EU," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    16. Kallio, A.M.I. & Salminen, O. & Sievänen, R., 2016. "Forests in the Finnish low carbon scenarios," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 45-62.
    17. Frederic Murphy & Axel Pierru & Yves Smeers, 2016. "A Tutorial on Building Policy Models as Mixed-Complementarity Problems," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 46(6), pages 465-481, December.
    18. Yong Zeng & Yanpeng Cai & Guohe Huang & Jing Dai, 2011. "A Review on Optimization Modeling of Energy Systems Planning and GHG Emission Mitigation under Uncertainty," Energies, MDPI, vol. 4(10), pages 1-33, October.
    19. Riikka Siljander & Tommi Ekholm, 2018. "Integrated scenario modelling of energy, greenhouse gas emissions and forestry," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 783-802, June.
    20. Oskar Lecuyer & Adrien Vogt-Schilb, 2013. "Assessing and ordering investments in polluting fossil-fueled and zero-carbon capital," CIRED Working Papers hal-00850680, HAL.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:62:y:2013:i:c:p:593-606. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.