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Economic And Physical Modeling Of Land Use In Gcam 3.0 And An Application To Agricultural Productivity, Land, And Terrestrial Carbon

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  • MARSHALL WISE

    (Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740, USA)

  • KATE CALVIN

    (Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740, USA)

  • PAGE KYLE

    (Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740, USA)

  • PATRICK LUCKOW

    (Synapse Energy Economics, Inc., 485 Massachusetts Ave., Suite 2, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA)

  • JAE EDMONDS

    (Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740, USA)

Abstract

The release of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) version 3.0 represents a major revision in the treatment of agriculture and land-use activities in a model of long-term, global human and physical Earth systems. GCAM 3.0 incorporates greater spatial and temporal resolution compared to GCAM 2.0. In this paper, we document the methods embodied in the new release, describe the motivation for the changes, compare GCAM 3.0 methods to those of other long-term, global agriculture-economy models and apply GCAM 3.0 to explore the impact of changes in agricultural crop yields on global land use and terrestrial carbon. In the absence of continued crop yield improvements throughout the century, not only are cumulative carbon emissions a major source ofCO2emissions to the atmosphere, but bioenergy production remains trivial — land is needed for food. In contrast, the high crop yield improvement scenario cuts terrestrial carbon emissions dramatically and facilitates both food and energy production.

Suggested Citation

  • Marshall Wise & Kate Calvin & Page Kyle & Patrick Luckow & Jae Edmonds, 2014. "Economic And Physical Modeling Of Land Use In Gcam 3.0 And An Application To Agricultural Productivity, Land, And Terrestrial Carbon," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(02), pages 1-22.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ccexxx:v:05:y:2014:i:02:n:s2010007814500031
    DOI: 10.1142/S2010007814500031
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    1. Birur, Dileep & Hertel, Thomas & Tyner, Wally, 2008. "Impact of Biofuel Production on World Agricultural Markets: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," GTAP Working Papers 2413, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    2. Son H. Kim, Jae Edmonds, Josh Lurz, Steven J. Smith, and Marshall Wise, 2006. "The objECTS Framework for integrated Assessment: Hybrid Modeling of Transportation," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 63-92.
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