IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v39y2011i9p4692-4702.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling hourly electricity dynamics for policy making in long-term scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Pina, André
  • Silva, Carlos
  • Ferrão, Paulo

Abstract

Energy policies are often related to the global effort in reducing greenhouse gas emissions through increased use of renewable energies in electricity production. The impact of these policies is usually calculated by energy planning tools. However, the modeling methodologies most currently used are not adequate to simulate long-term scenarios while considering the hourly dynamics of supply and demand. This paper presents an extension of the TIMES energy planning tool for investment decisions in electricity production that considers seasonal, daily and hourly supply and demand dynamics. The inclusion of these dynamics enables the model to produce more accurate results in what concerns the impact of introducing energy efficiency policies and the increased use of renewable energies. The model was validated in São Miguel (Azores, Portugal) for the years 2006-2009, where a comparison with real data showed that the model can simulate the supply and demand dynamics. Further, the long-term analysis shows that the inclusion of these dynamics contributes to a better assessment of the renewable energy potential, suggests the postponement of investments in new generation capacity, and demonstrates that using fine time resolution modeling is very valuable for the design of effective policy measures under high renewable penetration energy systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Pina, André & Silva, Carlos & Ferrão, Paulo, 2011. "Modeling hourly electricity dynamics for policy making in long-term scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4692-4702, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:9:p:4692-4702
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421511005180
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vaillancourt, Kathleen & Labriet, Maryse & Loulou, Richard & Waaub, Jean-Philippe, 2008. "The role of nuclear energy in long-term climate scenarios: An analysis with the World-TIMES model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2296-2307, July.
    2. Connolly, D. & Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V. & Leahy, M., 2010. "A review of computer tools for analysing the integration of renewable energy into various energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(4), pages 1059-1082, April.
    3. Richard Loulou & Maryse Labriet, 2008. "ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model Part I: Model structure," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 7-40, February.
    4. Howells, M. I. & Alfstad, T. & Victor, D. G. & Goldstein, G. & Remme, U., 2005. "A model of household energy services in a low-income rural African village," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(14), pages 1833-1851, September.
    5. Blesl, Markus & Das, Anjana & Fahl, Ulrich & Remme, Uwe, 2007. "Role of energy efficiency standards in reducing CO2 emissions in Germany: An assessment with TIMES," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 772-785, February.
    6. Rout, Ullash K. & Fahl, Ulrich & Remme, Uwe & Blesl, Markus & Voß, Alfred, 2009. "Endogenous implementation of technology gap in energy optimization models--a systematic analysis within TIMES G5 model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2814-2830, July.
    7. Simões, Sofia & Cleto, João & Fortes, Patri­cia & Seixas, Júlia & Huppes, Gjalt, 2008. "Cost of energy and environmental policy in Portuguese CO2 abatement--scenario analysis to 2020," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3598-3611, September.
    8. Richard Loulou, 2008. "ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model. part II: mathematical formulation," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 41-66, February.
    9. Ang, B.W. & Ng, T.T., 1992. "The use of growth curves in energy studies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 25-36.
    10. Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2009. "Energy system analysis of 100% renewable energy systems—The case of Denmark in years 2030 and 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 524-531.
    11. Möst, Dominik & Fichtner, Wolf, 2010. "Renewable energy sources in European energy supply and interactions with emission trading," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 2898-2910, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pina, André & Silva, Carlos A. & Ferrão, Paulo, 2013. "High-resolution modeling framework for planning electricity systems with high penetration of renewables," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 215-223.
    2. Rosenberg, Eva & Lind, Arne & Espegren, Kari Aamodt, 2013. "The impact of future energy demand on renewable energy production – Case of Norway," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 419-431.
    3. Welsch, Manuel & Deane, Paul & Howells, Mark & Ó Gallachóir, Brian & Rogan, Fionn & Bazilian, Morgan & Rogner, Hans-Holger, 2014. "Incorporating flexibility requirements into long-term energy system models – A case study on high levels of renewable electricity penetration in Ireland," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 600-615.
    4. Blanco, Herib & Gómez Vilchez, Jonatan J. & Nijs, Wouter & Thiel, Christian & Faaij, André, 2019. "Soft-linking of a behavioral model for transport with energy system cost optimization applied to hydrogen in EU," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    5. Fehrenbach, Daniel & Merkel, Erik & McKenna, Russell & Karl, Ute & Fichtner, Wolf, 2014. "On the economic potential for electric load management in the German residential heating sector – An optimising energy system model approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 263-276.
    6. Amorim, Filipa & Pina, André & Gerbelová, Hana & Pereira da Silva, Patrícia & Vasconcelos, Jorge & Martins, Victor, 2014. "Electricity decarbonisation pathways for 2050 in Portugal: A TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) based approach in closed versus open systems modelling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 104-112.
    7. Huppmann, Daniel & Egging, Ruud, 2014. "Market power, fuel substitution and infrastructure – A large-scale equilibrium model of global energy markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 483-500.
    8. Hache, Emmanuel & Palle, Angélique, 2019. "Renewable energy source integration into power networks, research trends and policy implications: A bibliometric and research actors survey analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 23-35.
    9. Føyn, T. Helene Ystanes & Karlsson, Kenneth & Balyk, Olexandr & Grohnheit, Poul Erik, 2011. "A global renewable energy system: A modelling exercise in ETSAP/TIAM," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 526-534, February.
    10. Vaillancourt, Kathleen & Alcocer, Yuri & Bahn, Olivier & Fertel, Camille & Frenette, Erik & Garbouj, Hichem & Kanudia, Amit & Labriet, Maryse & Loulou, Richard & Marcy, Mathilde & Neji, Yosra & Waaub,, 2014. "A Canadian 2050 energy outlook: Analysis with the multi-regional model TIMES-Canada," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 56-65.
    11. Assoumou, Edi & Maïzi, Nadia, 2011. "Carbon value dynamics for France: A key driver to support mitigation pledges at country scale," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4325-4336, July.
    12. Parrado-Hernando, Gonzalo & Herc, Luka & Pfeifer, Antun & Capellán-Perez, Iñigo & Batas Bjelić, Ilija & Duić, Neven & Frechoso-Escudero, Fernando & Miguel González, Luis Javier & Gjorgievski, Vladimir, 2022. "Capturing features of hourly-resolution energy models through statistical annual indicators," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 1192-1223.
    13. Wen, Xin & Jaxa-Rozen, Marc & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2023. "Hindcasting to inform the development of bottom-up electricity system models: The cases of endogenous demand and technology learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 340(C).
    14. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2017. "Investment appraisal of cost-optimal and near-optimal pathways for the UK electricity sector transition to 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 89-109.
    15. Seljom, Pernille & Tomasgard, Asgeir, 2017. "The impact of policy actions and future energy prices on the cost-optimal development of the energy system in Norway and Sweden," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 85-102.
    16. Das, Anjana & Halder, Arideep & Mazumder, Rahul & Saini, Vinay Kumar & Parikh, Jyoti & Parikh, Kirit S., 2018. "Bangladesh power supply scenarios on renewables and electricity import," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 651-667.
    17. Hache, Emmanuel & Seck, Gondia Sokhna & Simoen, Marine & Bonnet, Clément & Carcanague, Samuel, 2019. "Critical raw materials and transportation sector electrification: A detailed bottom-up analysis in world transport," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 6-25.
    18. Welsch, M. & Howells, M. & Bazilian, M. & DeCarolis, J.F. & Hermann, S. & Rogner, H.H., 2012. "Modelling elements of Smart Grids – Enhancing the OSeMOSYS (Open Source Energy Modelling System) code," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 337-350.
    19. Ringkjøb, Hans-Kristian & Haugan, Peter M. & Solbrekke, Ida Marie, 2018. "A review of modelling tools for energy and electricity systems with large shares of variable renewables," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 440-459.
    20. Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2016. "Does cost optimization approximate the real-world energy transition?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 182-193.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:9:p:4692-4702. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.