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Modeling the diffusion of scientific publications

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  • Fok, Dennis
  • Franses, Philip Hans

Abstract

This paper illustrates that salient features of a panel of time series of annual citations can be captured by a Bass type diffusion model. We put forward an extended version of this diffusion model, where we consider the relation between key characteristics of the diffusion process and features of the articles. More specifically, parameters measuring citations' ceiling and the timing of peak citations are correlated with specific features of the articles like the number of pages and the number of authors. Our approach amounts to a multi-level non-linear regression for a panel of time series. We illustrate our model for citations to articles that were published in Econometrica and the Journal of Econometrics. Amongst other things, we find that more references lead to more citations and that for the Journal of Econometrics peak citations of more recent articles tend to occur later.
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  • Fok, Dennis & Franses, Philip Hans, 2007. "Modeling the diffusion of scientific publications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 376-390, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:139:y:2007:i:2:p:376-390
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    Cited by:

    1. Marc Fischer & Peter Leeflang & Peter Verhoef, 2010. "Drivers of peak sales for pharmaceutical brands," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 429-460, December.
    2. Erjen Van Nierop, 2009. "Why do statistics journals have low impact factors?," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 63(1), pages 52-62, February.
    3. Zeki Simsek & Ciaran Heavey & Justin J. P. Jansen, 2013. "Journal Impact as a Diffusion Process: A Conceptualization and the Case of the Journal of Management Studies," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(8), pages 1374-1407, December.
    4. Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2009. "Forecasting Sales," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-29, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    5. Richard S. J. Tol, 2011. "Credit where credit’s due: accounting for co-authorship in citation counts," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 89(1), pages 291-299, October.
    6. Boswijk, H. Peter & Franses, Philip Hans & van Dijk, Dick, 2010. "Cointegration in a historical perspective," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 156-159, September.
    7. Ruiz-Conde, Enar & Wieringa, Jaap E. & Leeflang, Peter S.H., 2014. "Competitive diffusion of new prescription drugs: The role of pharmaceutical marketing investment," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 49-63.
    8. Lutz Bornmann & Adam Y. Ye & Fred Y. Ye, 2018. "Identifying “hot papers” and papers with “delayed recognition” in large-scale datasets by using dynamically normalized citation impact scores," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 116(2), pages 655-674, August.
    9. Michael Schymura & Andreas Löschel, 2014. "Incidence and extent of co-authorship in environmental and resource economics: evidence from the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 99(3), pages 631-661, June.
    10. Yi-Tui Chen & Fu-Chiang Yang & Shih-Heng Yu, 2017. "The Diffusion Effect of MSW Recycling," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-12, December.
    11. Bornmann, Lutz & Leydesdorff, Loet, 2017. "Skewness of citation impact data and covariates of citation distributions: A large-scale empirical analysis based on Web of Science data," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 164-175.
    12. Bornmann, Lutz & Tekles, Alexander, 2021. "Convergent validity of several indicators measuring disruptiveness with milestone assignments to physics papers by experts," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3).
    13. Jinyoung Kim & Kanghyock Koh, 2014. "Incentives for Journal Editors," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 47(1), pages 348-371, February.
    14. David I. Stern, 2017. "Comment on Bornmann (2017): confidence intervals for journal impact factors," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 113(3), pages 1811-1813, December.
    15. Gelper, Sarah & Stremersch, Stefan, 2014. "Variable selection in international diffusion models," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 356-367.
    16. R. G. Raj & A. N. Zainab, 2012. "Relative measure index: a metric to measure the quality of journals," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 93(2), pages 305-317, November.
    17. Giovanni Modanese, 2023. "The Network Bass Model with Behavioral Compartments," Stats, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-13, March.
    18. García-Suaza, Andrés & Otero, Jesus & Winkelmann, Rainer, 2018. "Early Career Research Production in Economics: Does Mentoring Matter?," IZA Discussion Papers 11976, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Howlett, Peter, 2008. "Travelling in the social science community: assessing the impact of the Indian Green Revolution across disciplines," Economic History Working Papers 22513, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    20. Teodora Diana Corsatea, 2010. "Measuring science: Spatial investigation of academic opportunities in Belgium," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 89(2), pages 373-387, June.
    21. Bornmann, Lutz, 2019. "Does the normalized citation impact of universities profit from certain properties of their published documents – such as the number of authors and the impact factor of the publishing journals? A mult," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 170-184.

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