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Technological Forecasting---Model Selection, Model Stability, and Combining Models

Author

Listed:
  • Nigel Meade

    (The Management School, Imperial College, Exhibition Road, London SW7 2PG, United Kingdom)

  • Towhidul Islam

    (The Management School, Imperial College, Exhibition Road, London SW7 2PG, United Kingdom)

Abstract

The paper identifies 29 models that the literature suggests are appropriate for technological forecasting. These models are divided into three classes according to the timing of the point of inflexion in the innovation or substitution process. Faced with a given data set and such a choice, the issue of model selection needs to be addressed. Evidence used to aid model selection is drawn from measures of model fit and model stability. An analysis of the forecasting performance of these models using simulated data sets shows that it is easier to identify a class of possible models rather than the 'best' model. This leads to the combining of model forecasts. The performance of the combined forecasts appears promising with a tendency to outperform the individual component models.

Suggested Citation

  • Nigel Meade & Towhidul Islam, 1998. "Technological Forecasting---Model Selection, Model Stability, and Combining Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(8), pages 1115-1130, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:44:y:1998:i:8:p:1115-1130
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.44.8.1115
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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