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The diffusion of scientific publications: The case of Econometrica, 1987

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  • Philip Hans Franses

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

Abstract

This paper documents that salient features of (time series of annual) citations to scientific publications might be captured by a Bass type diffusion model. This is particularly useful as it allows for a comparison of these features across journals, across disciplines and over time. For the illustrative case of Econometrica 1987, it is found that the peak in citations occurs at 6.5 years, on average. Also, it is found that after 14 years there is only a little gap between cumulative citations and the estimated total cumulative amount, suggesting that on average the impact of these articles lasts for about 15 years or so. Finally, it appears that these features can partly be explained by the size of the articles, as it is found that longer papers get more citations and peak later.

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  • Philip Hans Franses, 2003. "The diffusion of scientific publications: The case of Econometrica, 1987," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 56(1), pages 29-42, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:56:y:2003:i:1:d:10.1023_a:1021994422916
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1021994422916
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Parker, Philip M., 1994. "Aggregate diffusion forecasting models in marketing: A critical review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 353-380, September.
    2. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
    3. Christophe Van den Bulte & Gary L. Lilien, 1997. "Bias and Systematic Change in the Parameter Estimates of Macro-Level Diffusion Models," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 16(4), pages 338-353.
    4. Hendrik P. Van Dalen & Kène Henkens, 2001. "What makes a scientific article influential? The case of demographers," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 50(3), pages 455-482, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fok, Dennis & Franses, Philip Hans, 2007. "Modeling the diffusion of scientific publications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 376-390, August.
    2. Erjen Van Nierop, 2009. "Why do statistics journals have low impact factors?," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 63(1), pages 52-62, February.
    3. Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2009. "Forecasting Sales," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-29, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    4. Richard S. J. Tol, 2011. "Credit where credit’s due: accounting for co-authorship in citation counts," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 89(1), pages 291-299, October.
    5. Liu, Yuxian & Rousseau, Ronald, 2008. "Definitions of time series in citation analysis with special attention to the h-index," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 202-210.
    6. Boswijk, H. Peter & Franses, Philip Hans & van Dijk, Dick, 2010. "Cointegration in a historical perspective," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 156-159, September.
    7. García-Suaza, Andrés & Otero, Jesus & Winkelmann, Rainer, 2018. "Early Career Research Production in Economics: Does Mentoring Matter?," IZA Discussion Papers 11976, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Fragiskos Archontakis & Rocco Mosconi, 2021. "Søren Johansen and Katarina Juselius: A Bibliometric Analysis of Citations through Multivariate Bass Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-28, August.
    9. Rousseau, Ronald & Hu, Xiaojun, 2013. "Two time series, their meaning and some applications," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 603-610.

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