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The effect of the business cycle at college graduation on fertility

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  • Hofmann, Barbara
  • Hohmeyer, Katrin

Abstract

Many studies show that fertility decreases as economic conditions worsen. Evidence on socio-economic subgroups is sparse. We investigate whether a downturn at college graduation affects subsequent fertility. Using data from the German National Educational Panel Study covering a more than 40-years observation period, we find that a recession at graduation affects female but not male fertility timing. A downturn at graduation increases the transition rate to first pregnancy among female graduates significantly. This effect is driven by females older than 24 years at graduation and is strongest in the first years after graduation and then decreases over time. We also find a downturn to decrease the probability of holding a degree-adequate job in the first years after graduation. These findings suggest that female graduates take advantage of decreased opportunity costs in a recession. We do not find an effect of a downturn at graduation on completed fertility.

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  • Hofmann, Barbara & Hohmeyer, Katrin, 2016. "The effect of the business cycle at college graduation on fertility," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 88-102.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecoedu:v:55:y:2016:i:c:p:88-102
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econedurev.2016.09.004
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    Cited by:

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    2. KONDO Ayako, 2024. "Subtle Completed Fertility Recovery in Cohorts Who Entered the Labor Market during the Deep Recession in Japan," Discussion papers 24063, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Eleanor Jawon Choi & Jaewoo Choi & Hyelim Son, 2019. "The Long-Term Effects of Labor Market Entry in a Recession: Evidence from the Asian Financial Crisis," Upjohn Working Papers 19-312, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    4. Mattias Engdahl & Mathilde Godard & Oskar Nordström Skans, 2024. "Early Labor Market Prospects and Family Formation," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 59(5), pages 1564-1598.
    5. Eleanor J. Choi & Jaewoo Choi & Hyelim Son, 2020. "The Long-Term Effects of Labor Market Entry in a Recession: Evidence from the Asian Financial Crisis," Working Papers 637, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    6. James M. Raymo & Akihisa Shibata, 2017. "Unemployment, Nonstandard Employment, and Fertility: Insights From Japan’s “Lost 20 Years”," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(6), pages 2301-2329, December.
    7. Choi, Eleanor Jawon & Choi, Jaewoo & Son, Hyelim, 2020. "The long-term effects of labor market entry in a recession: Evidence from the Asian financial crisis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    8. Aparicio, Ainoa & González, Libertad & Vall Castelló, Judit, 2020. "Newborn health and the business cycle: The role of birth order," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
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    10. Yue Yin & Ye Jiang, 2023. "Fertility Effects of Labor Market Conditions at Graduation," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 31(4), pages 120-152, July.
    11. Choi, Eleanor J. & Choi, Jaewoo & Son, Hyelim, 2020. "The Long-Term Effects of Labor Market Entry in a Recession: Evidence from the Asian Financial Crisis," IZA Discussion Papers 13009, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Sjögren, Anna & Mattias , Mattias & Hall, Caroline & Holmlund, Helena & Lundin, Martin & Mühlrad, Hanna & Öckert, Björn, 2021. "Swedish children and youth during the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2021:3, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle; College graduates; Fertility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

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