IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp16087.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Make Your Own Luck: The Wage Gains from Starting College in a Bad Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Bicakova, Alena

    (CERGE-EI)

  • Cortes, Matias

    (York University, Canada)

  • Mazza, Jacopo

    (Utrecht University)

Abstract

Using data for nearly 40 cohorts of American college graduates and exploiting regional variation in economic conditions, we show robust evidence of a positive relationship between the unemployment rate at the time of college enrollment and subsequent annual earnings, particularly for women. This positive relationship is not driven by selection into employment or by economic conditions at the time of labor market entry. It also cannot be explained by differential sorting into college majors or post-graduate education. Up to one third of the effect is accounted for by sorting towards more remunerative locations. The results are consistent with a behavioral change that induces individuals who experience bad economic times at the beginning of their studies to exert more effort toward obtaining higher paying jobs.

Suggested Citation

  • Bicakova, Alena & Cortes, Matias & Mazza, Jacopo, 2023. "Make Your Own Luck: The Wage Gains from Starting College in a Bad Economy," IZA Discussion Papers 16087, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16087
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp16087.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edward P. Lazear & Kathryn L. Shaw & Christopher Stanton, 2016. "Making Do with Less: Working Harder during Recessions," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 333-360.
    2. Kahn, Lisa B., 2010. "The long-term labor market consequences of graduating from college in a bad economy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 303-316, April.
    3. Miles Corak, 2013. "Income Inequality, Equality of Opportunity, and Intergenerational Mobility," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 79-102, Summer.
    4. Pedro Carneiro & James J. Heckman & Edward J. Vytlacil, 2011. "Estimating Marginal Returns to Education," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2754-2781, October.
    5. Joseph G. Altonji & Lisa B. Kahn & Jamin D. Speer, 2016. "Cashier or Consultant? Entry Labor Market Conditions, Field of Study, and Career Success," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 361-401.
    6. Till von Wachter, 2020. "The Persistent Effects of Initial Labor Market Conditions for Young Adults and Their Sources," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 168-194, Fall.
    7. Sievertsen, Hans Henrik, 2016. "Local unemployment and the timing of post-secondary schooling," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 17-28.
    8. Rachel Griffith & Martin O'Connell & Kate Smith, 2016. "Shopping Around: How Households Adjusted Food Spending Over the Great Recession," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(330), pages 247-280, April.
    9. Harris Dellas & Plutarchos Sakellaris, 2003. "On the cyclicality of schooling: theory and evidence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 55(1), pages 148-172, January.
    10. Alena Bičáková & Guido Matias Cortes & Jacopo Mazza, 2021. "Caught in the Cycle: Economic Conditions at Enrolment and Labour Market Outcomes of College Graduates," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(638), pages 2383-2412.
    11. Maria Cotofan & Lea Cassar & Robert Dur & Stephan Meier, 2023. "Macroeconomic Conditions When Young Shape Job Preferences for Life," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 467-473, March.
    12. Gary Solon & Steven J. Haider & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2015. "What Are We Weighting For?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 301-316.
    13. Philip Oreopoulos & Till von Wachter & Andrew Heisz, 2012. "The Short- and Long-Term Career Effects of Graduating in a Recession," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-29, January.
    14. Darolia, Rajeev, 2014. "Working (and studying) day and night: Heterogeneous effects of working on the academic performance of full-time and part-time students," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 38-50.
    15. Brecht Neyt & Eddy Omey & Dieter Verhaest & Stijn Baert, 2019. "Does Student Work Really Affect Educational Outcomes? A Review Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 896-921, July.
    16. Matthew T. Johnson, 2013. "The Impact of Business Cycle Fluctuations on Graduate School Enrollment," Mathematica Policy Research Reports 77da29f047574fbfb5f216d63, Mathematica Policy Research.
    17. Liu, Kai & Salvanes, Kjell G. & Sørensen, Erik Ø., 2016. "Good skills in bad times: Cyclical skill mismatch and the long-term effects of graduating in a recession," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 3-17.
    18. Erica Blom & Brian C. Cadena & Benjamin J. Keys, 2021. "Investment over the Business Cycle: Insights from College Major Choice," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(4), pages 1043-1082.
    19. Hannes Schwandt & Till von Wachter, 2019. "Unlucky Cohorts: Estimating the Long-Term Effects of Entering the Labor Market in a Recession in Large Cross-Sectional Data Sets," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(S1), pages 161-198.
    20. Damon Clark, 2011. "Do Recessions Keep Students in School? The Impact of Youth Unemployment on Enrolment in Post‐compulsory Education in England," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(311), pages 523-545, July.
    21. David Atkin, 2016. "Endogenous Skill Acquisition and Export Manufacturing in Mexico," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(8), pages 2046-2085, August.
    22. Alessandrini, Diana, 2018. "Is post-secondary education a safe port and for whom? Evidence from Canadian data," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-13.
    23. John Bound & Michael F. Lovenheim & Sarah Turner, 2010. "Why Have College Completion Rates Declined? An Analysis of Changing Student Preparation and Collegiate Resources," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 129-157, July.
    24. Steven J. Davis & Till Von Wachter, 2011. "Recessions and the Costs of Job Loss," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(2 (Fall)), pages 1-72.
    25. Barr, Andrew & Turner, Sarah, 2015. "Out of work and into school: Labor market policies and college enrollment during the Great Recession," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 63-73.
    26. Pedro Carneiro & Sokbae Lee, 2011. "Trends in Quality-Adjusted Skill Premia in the United States, 1960-2000," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2309-2349, October.
    27. Arenas, Andreu & Malgouyres, Clément, 2018. "Countercyclical school attainment and intergenerational mobility," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 97-111.
    28. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2016. "Learning from Inflation Experiences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(1), pages 53-87.
    29. Kerwin Kofi Charles & Erik Hurst & Matthew J. Notowidigdo, 2018. "Housing Booms and Busts, Labor Market Opportunities, and College Attendance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(10), pages 2947-2994, October.
    30. Olof Åslund & Dan-Olof Rooth, 2007. "Do when and where matter? initial labour market conditions and immigrant earnings," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(518), pages 422-448, March.
    31. Hitoshi Shigeoka, 2019. "Long-Term Consequences of Growing up in a Recession on Risk Preferences," NBER Working Papers 26352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Julian R. Betts & Laurel L. McFarland, 1995. "Safe Port in a Storm: The Impact of Labor Market Conditions on Community College Enrollments," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30(4), pages 741-765.
    33. Raj Chetty & Nathaniel Hendren & Patrick Kline & Emmanuel Saez, 2014. "Where is the land of Opportunity? The Geography of Intergenerational Mobility in the United States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(4), pages 1553-1623.
    34. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2011. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 373-416.
    35. John Bound & Breno Braga & Gaurav Khanna & Sarah Turner, 2019. "Public Universities: The Supply Side of Building a Skilled Workforce," NBER Working Papers 25945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Paola Giuliano & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2014. "Growing up in a Recession," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(2), pages 787-817.
    37. Toshihiko Mukoyama & Christina Patterson & Ayşegül Şahin, 2018. "Job Search Behavior over the Business Cycle," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 190-215, January.
    38. Johnson, Matthew T., 2013. "The impact of business cycle fluctuations on graduate school enrollment," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 122-134.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alena Bičáková & Guido Matias Cortes & Jacopo Mazza, 2021. "Caught in the Cycle: Economic Conditions at Enrolment and Labour Market Outcomes of College Graduates," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(638), pages 2383-2412.
    2. Jennifer Graves & Zoë Kuehn, 2022. "Higher education decisions and macroeconomic conditions at age eighteen," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 171-241, May.
    3. Erica Blom & Brian C. Cadena & Benjamin J. Keys, 2021. "Investment over the Business Cycle: Insights from College Major Choice," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(4), pages 1043-1082.
    4. Kim, Sun Hyung, 2023. "The importance of social skills in recovery from graduating in a recession," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 387-411.
    5. Arenas, Andreu & Malgouyres, Clément, 2018. "Countercyclical school attainment and intergenerational mobility," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 97-111.
    6. Franziska Hampf & Marc Piopiunik & Simon Wiederhold, 2020. "The Effects of Graduating from High School in a Recession: College Investments, Skill Formation, and Labor-Market Outcomes," CESifo Working Paper Series 8252, CESifo.
    7. By Marianne Haraldsvik & Bjarne Strøm, 2022. "Adult skills and labor market conditions during teenage years: cross-country evidence from international surveys [Is post-secondary education a safe port and for whom? Evidence from Canadian data]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 894-919.
    8. Jeremy Kirk, 2024. "The Impact of Parental Resources on Human Capital Investment and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from the Great Recession," Working Papers 24-34, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    9. Lisa Simon, 2019. "Microeconometric Analyses on Determinants of Individual Labour Market Outcomes," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 83.
    10. Stratton, Leslie S., 2017. "Housing Prices, Unemployment Rates, Disadvantage, and Progress toward a Degree," IZA Discussion Papers 10941, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Del Bono, Emilia & Morando, Greta, 2021. "For Some, Luck Matters More: The Impact of the Great Recession on the Early Careers of Graduates from Different Socio-Economic Backgrounds," IZA Discussion Papers 14540, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Mary C. Daly, 2022. "The Singularity of the Dual Mandate," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(27), pages 1-8, October.
    13. Maria Cotofan & Lea Cassar & Robert Dur & Stephan Meier, 2023. "Macroeconomic Conditions When Young Shape Job Preferences for Life," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 467-473, March.
    14. Gabriele Lucchetti & Alessandro Ruggieri, 2023. "Unlucky migrants: Scarring effect of recessions on the assimilation of the foreign born," Discussion Papers 2023-09, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    15. Arthi, Vellore & Parman, John, 2021. "Disease, downturns, and wellbeing: Economic history and the long-run impacts of COVID-19," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    16. David, Sandberg, 2024. "The Effect of Military Base Closures on Young Adults," Working Papers 2024:9, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    17. Fraser Summerfield & Ioannis Theodossiou, 2017. "The Effects Of Macroeconomic Conditions At Graduation On Overeducation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(3), pages 1370-1387, July.
    18. Saule Kemelbayeva, 2020. "Returns to schooling in Kazakhstan: an update using a pseudo-panel approach," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(3), pages 437-487, September.
    19. Toman Barsbai & Andreas Steinmayr & Christoph Winter, 2022. "Immigrating into a Recession: Evidence from Family Migrants to the U.S," Working Papers 2022-01, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    20. Lisa Simon, 2018. "Shocking Choice: Trade Shocks, Local Labor Markets and Vocational Occupation Choices," ifo Working Paper Series 281, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycle; higher education; cohort effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16087. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.