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Certainty of meeting fertility intentions declines in Europe during the 'Great Recession'

Author

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  • Maria Rita Testa

    (Libera Università Internazionale degli Studi Sociali "Guido Carli")

  • Stuart Gietel-Basten

    (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

Abstract

Background: Relatively little research has been conducted on how economic recessions impact fertility intentions. In particular, uncertainty in reproductive intentions has not been examined in relation to economic shocks. Objective: The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of individuals' perception of negative changes in both their own and their country's economic performance on reproductive intentions in Europe during the time of the 'Great Recession' (2006-2011). Crucially, we examine both intentions and stated certainty of meeting these intentions. Methods: Using the 2011 Eurobarometer survey for 27 European countries, fertility intentions and reproductive uncertainty are regressed on individuals' perceptions of past trends in country's economic situation, household's financial situation, and personal job situation. Multilevel ordinal regressions models are run separately for people at parities zero and one as well as controlling for a set of socio-demographic variables. Results: A worsening in the households' financial situation, as perceived in the years of the economic crisis, does not affect people's fertility intentions but rather the certainty of meeting these intentions. This relationship holds true at the individual-level for childless people. The more negative the individual's assessment of the household's financial situation, the higher the reproductive uncertainty. While this works exclusively at the country-level for people at parity one, the higher the share of people‟s pessimism on households' financial situation in the country the more insecure individuals of such a country are about having additional children. Conclusions: The empirical evidence suggests that individuals' uncertainty about realising their fertility intentions has risen in Europe and is positively linked to people's perceived household financial difficulties. If European economies continue to fare poorly, fertility intentions could eventually start to decline in response to such difficulties.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Rita Testa & Stuart Gietel-Basten, 2014. "Certainty of meeting fertility intentions declines in Europe during the 'Great Recession'," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(23), pages 687-734.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:31:y:2014:i:23
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2014.31.23
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    1. Zuzanna Brzozowska & Isabella Buber-Ennser & Bernhard Riederer, 2021. "Didn’t Plan One but got One: Unintended and sooner-than-intended Parents in the East and the West of Europe," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(3), pages 727-767, July.
    2. Stuart Basten & Georgia Verropoulou, 2015. "A Re-Interpretation of the ‘Two-child Norm’ in Post-Transitional Demographic Systems: Fertility Intentions in Taiwan," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(8), pages 1-16, August.
    3. Lyons-Amos, Mark & Schoon, Ingrid, 2018. "Differential responses in first birth behaviour to economic recession in the United Kingdom," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 50(2), pages 275-290.
    4. Gaddy, Hampton Gray, 2020. "Has fertility increased at very high levels of development?," SocArXiv cufpa, Center for Open Science.
    5. Marco Novelli & Alberto Cazzola & Aurora Angeli & Lucia Pasquini, 2021. "Fertility Intentions in Times of Rising Economic Uncertainty: Evidence from Italy from a Gender Perspective," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 257-284, February.
    6. Alberto Cazzola & Lucia Pasquini & Aurora Angeli, 2016. "The relationship between unemployment and fertility in Italy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 34(1), pages 1-38.
    7. LUPPI, FRANCESCA & Arpino, Bruno & Rosina, Alessandro, 2022. "Dismissed and newly planned babies during the COVID-19 pandemic. A study of the motivations behind changes in fertility plans and behaviors in Italy," SocArXiv qpwba, Center for Open Science.
    8. Hampton Gaddy, 2021. "A decade of TFR declines suggests no relationship between development and sub-replacement fertility rebounds," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(5), pages 125-142.
    9. Francesca Fiori & Elspeth Graham & Francesca Rinesi, 2018. "Economic reasons for not wanting a second child: Changes before and after the onset of the economic recession in Italy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(30), pages 843-854.
    10. Anna Matysiak & Tomáš Sobotka & Daniele Vignoli, 2021. "The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-national Analysis," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(1), pages 29-64, March.
    11. Arpino, Bruno & LUPPI, FRANCESCA & Rosina, Alessandro, 2021. "Changes in fertility plans during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy: the role of occupation and income vulnerability," SocArXiv 4sjvm, Center for Open Science.
    12. Brian Buh, 2021. "Measuring the Effect of Employment uncertainty on Fertility in Europe (A literature review)," VID Working Papers 2103, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    13. Trunin Pavel & Bozhechkova Alexandra & Kazenin Konstantin & Lyashok Viktor & Rogozin D. & Vyugovskaya E., 2020. "Monitoring of Russia's Economic Outlook. Trends and Challenges of Socio-economic Development," Monitoring of Russia's Economic Outlook. Trends and Challenges of Socio-Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 12, pages 1-32, July.
    14. Maria Rita Testa, 2017. "Will highly educated women have more children in the future? Looking at reproductive plans and outcomes," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 15(1), pages 033-40.
    15. LUPPI, FRANCESCA & Rosina, Alessandro & Testa, Maria Rita, 2024. "An Overview on Low Fertility Motivations among Italian Young-Adults," SocArXiv hf78t, Center for Open Science.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Europe; multilevel analysis; lifetime fertility intentions; PIIGS; Great Recession; unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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