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You can't have a CGE recession without excess capacity

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  • Dixon, Peter B.
  • Rimmer, Maureen T.

Abstract

Simulations with dynamic, single country, CGE models typically imply that reductions in domestic demand, e.g. a cut in investment, generate increases in exports and reductions in imports facilitated by real depreciation. However, currently in the U.S. a large reduction in investment is occurring simultaneously with a contraction in exports and little movement in the real exchange rate. We show that to describe this situation it is necessary to drop the standard CGE assumption that capital is always fully employed in every industry. After introducing an excess capacity specification, we simulate the U.S. recession with and without the Obama stimulus package.

Suggested Citation

  • Dixon, Peter B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2011. "You can't have a CGE recession without excess capacity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 602-613.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:1:p:602-613
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2010.06.011
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    5. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2010. "Simulating the U.S. Recession with and without the Obama package: the role of excess capacity," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-193, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    6. Sherman Robinson, 2006. "Macro Models and Multipliers: Leontief, Stone, Keynes, and CGE Models," Economic Studies in Inequality, Social Exclusion, and Well-Being, in: Alain Janvry & Ravi Kanbur (ed.), Poverty, Inequality and Development, chapter 0, pages 205-232, Springer.
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    8. Dixon, Peter B. & Pearson, K.R. & Picton, Mark R. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2005. "Rational expectations for large CGE models: A practical algorithm and a policy application," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 1001-1019, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dixon, Peter B. & Koopman, Robert B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2013. "The MONASH Style of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling: A Framework for Practical Policy Analysis," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 23-103, Elsevier.
    2. Figus, Gioele & McGregor, Peter G. & Swales, J. Kim & Turner, Karen, 2020. "Do sticky energy prices impact the time paths of rebound effects associated with energy efficiency actions?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    3. Wittwer, Glyn & Griffith, Marnie, 2011. "Modelling drought and recovery in the southern Murray-Darling basin," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 55(3), pages 1-18, September.
    4. Kostas Mavromaras & James A. Giesecke & Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2017. "The Economy-wide Impacts of a Rise in the Capital Adequacy Ratios of Australian Banks," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93, pages 16-37, June.
    5. Nassios, Jason & Giesecke, James A. & Dixon, Peter B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2020. "What impact do differences in financial structure have on the macro effects of bank capital requirements in the United States and Australia?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 429-446.
    6. Gordon Menzies & Ron Bird & Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2011. "Asset Price Regulators, Unite: You have the Macroeconomy to Win and the Microeconomic Losses are Small," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(278), pages 449-464, September.
    7. Walmsley, Terrie & Rose, Adam & John, Richard & Wei, Dan & Hlávka, Jakub P. & Machado, Juan & Byrd, Katie, 2023. "Macroeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    8. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2011. "Doubling U.S. Exports under the President's National Export Initiative: Is it realistic? Is it desirable?," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-220, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    9. Hang Liu & Ping Li & Danhui Yang, 2017. "Export fluctuation and overcapacity in China’s manufacturing industry—the inspection of the causes of excess capacity from the perspective of external demand," China Finance and Economic Review, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-19, December.
    10. Peter B. Dixon & Michael Jerie & Maureen T. Rimmer & Glyn Wittwer, 2017. "Using a regional CGE model for rapid assessments of the economic implications of terrorism events: creating GRAD-ECAT (Generalized, Regional And Dynamic Economic Consequence Analysis Tool)," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-280, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    U.S. recession; CGE modelling; Excess capacity; Sticky rents; Mark-up pricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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