IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v28y2011i1p602-613.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

You can't have a CGE recession without excess capacity

Author

Listed:
  • Dixon, Peter B.
  • Rimmer, Maureen T.

Abstract

Simulations with dynamic, single country, CGE models typically imply that reductions in domestic demand, e.g. a cut in investment, generate increases in exports and reductions in imports facilitated by real depreciation. However, currently in the U.S. a large reduction in investment is occurring simultaneously with a contraction in exports and little movement in the real exchange rate. We show that to describe this situation it is necessary to drop the standard CGE assumption that capital is always fully employed in every industry. After introducing an excess capacity specification, we simulate the U.S. recession with and without the Obama stimulus package.

Suggested Citation

  • Dixon, Peter B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2011. "You can't have a CGE recession without excess capacity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 602-613.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:1:p:602-613
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2010.06.011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999310001082
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2010.06.011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harris, Richard, 1984. "Applied General Equilibrium Analysis of Small Open Economies with Scale Economies and Imperfect Competition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 1016-1032, December.
    2. W. Jill Harrison & Mark Horridge & K.R. Pearson & Glyn Wittwer, 2004. "A Practical Method for Explicitly Modeling Quotas and Other Complementarities," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 325-341, June.
    3. repec:bla:ecorec:v:56:y:1980:i:154:p:209-21 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. R. L. Hall & C. J. Hitch, 1939. "Price Theory And Business Behaviour," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 0(1), pages 12-45.
    5. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2010. "Simulating the U.S. Recession with and without the Obama package: the role of excess capacity," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-193, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    6. Sherman Robinson, 2006. "Macro Models and Multipliers: Leontief, Stone, Keynes, and CGE Models," Economic Studies in Inequality, Social Exclusion, and Well-Being, in: Alain Janvry & Ravi Kanbur (ed.), Poverty, Inequality and Development, chapter 0, pages 205-232, Springer.
    7. Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Veld, Jan in 't, 2009. "QUEST III: An estimated open-economy DSGE model of the euro area with fiscal and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 222-233, January.
    8. Dixon, Peter B. & Pearson, K.R. & Picton, Mark R. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2005. "Rational expectations for large CGE models: A practical algorithm and a policy application," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 1001-1019, December.
    9. Alain Janvry & Ravi Kanbur (ed.), 2006. "Poverty, Inequality and Development," Economic Studies in Inequality, Social Exclusion, and Well-Being, Springer, number 978-0-387-29748-4, November.
    10. Adams, P.D. & Dixon, P.B., 2001. "The September 11 shock to tourism and the Australian economy from 2001-02 to 2003-04," Australian Bulletin of Labour, National Institute of Labour Studies.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dixon, Peter B. & Koopman, Robert B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2013. "The MONASH Style of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling: A Framework for Practical Policy Analysis," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 23-103, Elsevier.
    2. Figus, Gioele & McGregor, Peter G. & Swales, J. Kim & Turner, Karen, 2020. "Do sticky energy prices impact the time paths of rebound effects associated with energy efficiency actions?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    3. Wittwer, Glyn & Griffith, Marnie, 2011. "Modelling drought and recovery in the southern Murray-Darling basin," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 55(3), pages 1-18, September.
    4. Kostas Mavromaras & James A. Giesecke & Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2017. "The Economy-wide Impacts of a Rise in the Capital Adequacy Ratios of Australian Banks," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93, pages 16-37, June.
    5. Nassios, Jason & Giesecke, James A. & Dixon, Peter B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2020. "What impact do differences in financial structure have on the macro effects of bank capital requirements in the United States and Australia?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 429-446.
    6. Gordon Menzies & Ron Bird & Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2011. "Asset Price Regulators, Unite: You have the Macroeconomy to Win and the Microeconomic Losses are Small," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(278), pages 449-464, September.
    7. Walmsley, Terrie & Rose, Adam & John, Richard & Wei, Dan & Hlávka, Jakub P. & Machado, Juan & Byrd, Katie, 2023. "Macroeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    8. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2011. "Doubling U.S. Exports under the President's National Export Initiative: Is it realistic? Is it desirable?," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-220, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    9. Hang Liu & Ping Li & Danhui Yang, 2017. "Export fluctuation and overcapacity in China’s manufacturing industry—the inspection of the causes of excess capacity from the perspective of external demand," China Finance and Economic Review, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-19, December.
    10. Peter B. Dixon & Michael Jerie & Maureen T. Rimmer & Glyn Wittwer, 2017. "Using a regional CGE model for rapid assessments of the economic implications of terrorism events: creating GRAD-ECAT (Generalized, Regional And Dynamic Economic Consequence Analysis Tool)," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-280, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2010. "Simulating the U.S. Recession with and without the Obama package: the role of excess capacity," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-193, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    2. Dixon, Peter B. & Koopman, Robert B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2013. "The MONASH Style of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling: A Framework for Practical Policy Analysis," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 23-103, Elsevier.
    3. Philip B. Whyman, 2018. "The local economic impact of shale gas extraction," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(2), pages 184-196, February.
    4. Senbeta, Sisay, 2011. "How applicable are the new keynesian DSGE models to a typical low-income economy?," MPRA Paper 30931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Muhammad Jami Husain & Bazlul Haque Khondker, 2016. "Tobacco-free Economy: A SAM-based Multiplier Model to Quantify the Impact of Changes in Tobacco Demand in Bangladesh," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 10(1), pages 55-85, February.
    6. Dario DEBOWICZ, 2010. "Real Financial Models in Argentina," EcoMod2010 259600044, EcoMod.
    7. Andrew J. Cassey & David W. Holland & Abdul Razack, 2011. "Comparing the Economic Impact of an Export Shock in Two Modeling Frameworks," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(4), pages 623-638.
    8. Dixon, P.B. & Giesecke, J.A. & Rimmer, M.T. & Rose, A., 2009. "The Economic Consequences of U.S. Border Closure in Response to a Security Threat: A Dynamic CGE Assessment," Conference papers 331893, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Pradesha, Angga & Robinson, Sherman, 2016. "CLIMATE CHANGE AND RICE SELF-SUFFICIENCY POLICY: Exploring Adaptation Strategy through Agricultural Policy Reform in the Philippines," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 236029, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Robert M´barek & Ivelin Iliev Rizov, 2013. "European Coexistence Bureau. Best Practice Documents for coexistence of genetically modified crops with conventional and organic farming. 3. Coexistence of genetically modified maize and honey product," JRC Research Reports JRC84850, Joint Research Centre.
    11. Latorre, María C. & Olekseyuk, Zoryana & Yonezawa, Hidemichi & Robinson, Sherman, 2020. "Making sense of Brexit losses: An in-depth review of macroeconomic studies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 72-87.
    12. Osman, Rehab Osman Mohamed, 2012. "The EU Economic Partnership Agreements with Southern Africa: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Economics PhD Theses 0412, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    13. Glyn Wittwer & Marnie Griffith, 2011. "Modelling drought and recovery in the southern Murray‐Darling basin," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 55(3), pages 342-359, July.
    14. Hanson, Kenneth, 2010. "The Food Assistance National Input-Output Multiplier (FANIOM) Model and Stimulus Effects of SNAP," Economic Research Report 262247, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    15. Fernand Martin, 1991. "Measuring the Impact of Free Trade: Local Analysis versus Regional and National Models," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, April.
    16. Don Fullerton & Gilbert E. Metcalf, 2002. "Environmental Controls, Scarcity Rents, and Pre-existing Distortions," Chapters, in: Lawrence H. Goulder (ed.), Environmental Policy Making in Economies with Prior Tax Distortions, chapter 26, pages 504-522, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Alexander Beames & Mariano Kulish & Nadine Yamout, 2022. "Fiscal Policy and the Slowdown in Trend Growth in an Open Economy," Working Papers 143, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    18. Ginters Bušs & Patrick Grüning, 2023. "Fiscal DSGE model for Latvia," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 2173915-217.
    19. David Amirault & Paul Fenton & Thérèse Laflèche, 2013. "Asking About Wages: Results from the Bank of Canada’s Wage Setting Survey of Canadian Companies," Discussion Papers 13-1, Bank of Canada.
    20. Lucy Rees & Rod Tyers, 2004. "On the Robustness of Short Run Gains from Trade Reform," CEPR Discussion Papers 474, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    U.S. recession; CGE modelling; Excess capacity; Sticky rents; Mark-up pricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:1:p:602-613. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.