IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cop/wpaper/g-184.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Economic Consequences of the U.S. Border Closure in Response to a Security Threat: A Dynamic CGE Assessment

Author

Abstract

We investigate the economic consequences of a twelve-month closure of U.S. borders in the form of cessation of trade, tourism and immigration flows. The federal government might contemplate such action in the face of an extreme terrorism or public health threat. Using a computable general equilibrium model, we find that border closure would cause substantial economic loss. However this damage is significantly reduced when critical imports (such as energy) are either exempted from the policy, or made available through use of domestic stockpiles (such as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve). Economic damage is reduced further if workers accept lower real wages for the duration of the security crisis. We argue that if border closure were ever to be contemplated as a response to a security or public health threat, it would be prudent to keep its scope to a minimum, to make its duration as short as possible, to allow market responses to run their course, and to enact countervailing policies that can help minimize the economic losses.

Suggested Citation

  • P.B. Dixon & J.A. Giesecke & M.T. Rimmer & A. Rose, 2009. "The Economic Consequences of the U.S. Border Closure in Response to a Security Threat: A Dynamic CGE Assessment," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-184, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  • Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-184
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.copsmodels.com/ftp/workpapr/g-184.pdf
    File Function: Initial version, 2009-04
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.copsmodels.com/elecpapr/g-184.htm
    File Function: Local abstract: may link to additional material.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Branko Milanovic & Lyn Squire, 2007. "Does Tariff Liberalization Increase Wage Inequality? Some Empirical Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization and Poverty, pages 143-182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. L. ALAN WINTERS & NEIL McCULLOCH & ANDREW McKAY, 2015. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Non-Tariff Barriers, Regionalism and Poverty Essays in Applied International Trade Analysis, chapter 14, pages 271-314, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Adam, C.S. & Bevan, D.L., 1998. "Costs and Benefits of Incorporating Asset Markets into CGE Models: Evidence and Design Issues," Economics Series Working Papers 99202, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. Dixon, Peter B. & Pearson, K.R. & Picton, Mark R. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2005. "Rational expectations for large CGE models: A practical algorithm and a policy application," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 1001-1019, December.
    5. Shoven, John B. & Whalley, John, 1972. "A general equilibrium calculation of the effects of differential taxation of income from capital in the U.S," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 281-321, November.
    6. Sherman Robinson, 2006. "Macro Models and Multipliers: Leontief, Stone, Keynes, and CGE Models," Economic Studies in Inequality, Social Exclusion, and Well-Being, in: Alain Janvry & Ravi Kanbur (ed.), Poverty, Inequality and Development, chapter 0, pages 205-232, Springer.
    7. Robinson, Sherman, 1991. "Macroeconomics, financial variables, and computable general equilibrium models," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(11), pages 1509-1525, November.
    8. Greene, David L & Jones, Donald W & Leiby, Paul N, 1998. "The outlook for US oil dependence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 55-69, January.
    9. Jagdish N. Bhagwati, 2004. "In Defense of Globalization: It Has a Human Face," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 94(6), pages 9-20, November-.
    10. Devaragan, Shantayanan & Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Robinson, Sherman, 1990. "Policy lessons from trade-focused, two-sector models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 625-657.
    11. Agenor,Pierre-Richard, 2003. "The mini-integrated macroeconomic model for poverty analysis : a framework for analyzing the unemployment and poverty effects of fiscal and labor market reforms," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3067, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dario DEBOWICZ, 2010. "Real Financial Models in Argentina," EcoMod2010 259600044, EcoMod.
    2. Osman, Rehab Osman Mohamed, 2012. "The EU Economic Partnership Agreements with Southern Africa: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Economics PhD Theses 0412, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    3. Zhai, Fan, 2008. "Armington Meets Melitz: Introducing Firm Heterogeneity in a Global CGE Model of Trade," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 575-604.
    4. Giordano, Paolo & Li, Kun, 2012. "An Updated Assessment of the Trade and Poverty Nexus in Latin America," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4209, Inter-American Development Bank.
    5. Dixon, Peter B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2011. "You can't have a CGE recession without excess capacity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 602-613, January.
    6. Rana Hasan & Devashish Mitra & Mehmet Ulubasoglu, 2007. "Institutions and Policies for Growth and Poverty Reduction: The Role of Private Sector Development," Asian Development Review (ADR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 24(01), pages 69-116.
    7. Devashish Mitra, 2019. "Responses to Trade Opening: Evidence and Lessons from Asia," Working Papers id:12977, eSocialSciences.
    8. Keshab Bhattarai, 2017. "Welfare and Distributional Impacts of Financial Liberalization in an Open Economy: Lessons from a Multi-Sectoral Dynamic CGE Model for Nepal," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(1), pages 181-198, January.
    9. Vos, R.P. & Ganuza, E. & Morley, S. & Robinson, S. & Pineiro, V., 2004. "Are export promotion and trade liberalization good for Latin America's poor? : a comparative macro-micro CGE analysis," ISS Working Papers - General Series 19158, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    10. AGENOR Pierre-Richard & IZQUIERDO Alejandro & FOFACK Hippolyte, 2010. "IMMPA: A Quantitative Macroeconomic Framework for the Analysis of Poverty Reduction Strategies," EcoMod2003 330700003, EcoMod.
    11. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Fofack, Hippolyte, 2003. "The integrated macroeconomic model for poverty analysis : a quantitative macroeconomic framework for the analysis of poverty reduction strategies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3092, The World Bank.
    12. Pratt, Stephen & Blake, Adam & Swann, Peter, 2013. "Dynamic general equilibrium model with uncertainty: Uncertainty regarding the future path of the economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 429-439.
    13. McDonald, Scott & Kirsten, Johann F. & van Zyl, Johan, 1997. "A social accounting matrix for modeling agricultural policy reform in South Africa," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 36(4), pages 1-20, December.
    14. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Go, Delfin S. & Page, John & Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2008. "Aid, growth, and real exchange rate dynamics," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4480, The World Bank.
    15. Ole Boysen & Alan Matthews, 2008. "The Impact of Developed Country Agricultural Trade Liberalization on Poverty: A Survey," Working Papers hal-03416399, HAL.
    16. Dixon, Peter B. & Koopman, Robert B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2013. "The MONASH Style of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling: A Framework for Practical Policy Analysis," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 23-103, Elsevier.
    17. Pamela Coke Hamilton & Yvonne Tsikata & Emmanuel Pinto Moreira, 2009. "Accelerating Trade and Integration in the Caribbean : Policy Options for Sustained Growth, Job Creation, and Poverty Reduction," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2652.
    18. Mishkin, Frederic S., 2009. "Globalization and financial development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 164-169, July.
    19. Ann Harrison, 2007. "Globalization and Poverty: An Introduction," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization and Poverty, pages 1-32, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Paolo Giordano & Kun Li, 2012. "An Updated Assessment of the Trade and Poverty Nexus in Latin America," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 79119, Inter-American Development Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    border closure; strategic reserves; bottleneck imports; dynamic CGE;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-184. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mark Horridge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cpmonau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.