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Making sense of Brexit losses: An in-depth review of macroeconomic studies

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  • Latorre, María C.
  • Olekseyuk, Zoryana
  • Yonezawa, Hidemichi
  • Robinson, Sherman

Abstract

Almost all economic assessments of Brexit conclude that there would be significant losses for both the UK and the EU. This paper examines the driving forces behind these results. We consider the strong economic relationships between the UK and EU both at the sectoral and macroeconomic levels that are at risk from Brexit. We review fifteen studies that explore various Brexit scenarios (hard and soft) and explain why their different methodologies and assumptions yield different degrees of economic damage. Our review concludes that GDP losses for the UK from a hard Brexit range from 1.6% to 7.8%, while a soft Brexit would moderate the losses by roughly half. We also find that potential UK trade agreements with third countries could partially compensate for significant Brexit losses.

Suggested Citation

  • Latorre, María C. & Olekseyuk, Zoryana & Yonezawa, Hidemichi & Robinson, Sherman, 2020. "Making sense of Brexit losses: An in-depth review of macroeconomic studies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 72-87.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:89:y:2020:i:c:p:72-87
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2019.10.009
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    Cited by:

    1. María C. Latorre & Zoryana Olekseyuk & Hidemichi Yonezawa, 2020. "Foreign multinationals in service sectors: A general equilibrium analysis of Brexit," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(11), pages 2830-2859, November.
    2. Eloy Gil-Cordero & Francisco Javier Rondán-Cataluña & Daniel Sigüenza-Morales, 2020. "Private Label and Macroeconomic Indicators: Europe and USA," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-17, November.
    3. Suarez-Cuesta, David & Latorre, Maria C. & Lawrence, Robert Z., 2022. "Macroeconomic, sectoral and distributional effects of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act in the United States," Conference papers 333457, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Ortiz Valverde, Gabriela & Latorre, MaríaC. & Cubells, José Francisco, 2024. "The EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement: A short and long-term comprehensive analysis including FDI," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    5. Piserà, Stefano, 2024. "Hidden effects of Brexit," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
    6. Zhou, Jing & Latorre, María C., 2021. "FDI in China and global production networks: Assessing the role of and impact on big world players," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 1225-1240.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic methodology; CGE models; Economic simulation; Foreign trade; Migration; Multinationals;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements

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