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Fiscal DSGE model for Latvia

Author

Listed:
  • Ginters Bušs

    (Research Division, Latvijas Banka, Riga, Latvia)

  • Patrick Grüning

    (Research Division, Latvijas Banka, Riga, Latvia)

Abstract

We develop a fiscal dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for policy simulation and scenario analysis purposes tailored to Latvia, a small open economy in a monetary union. The fiscal sector elements comprise public investment, public consumption, government transfers that are asymmetrically directed to both optimizing and restricted (hand-to-mouth) households, cyclical unemployment benefits, foreign ownership of public debt, import content in public consumption and investment, and fiscal rules for each fiscal instrument. The model features a search-and-matching labour market friction with pro-cyclical labour costs, a financial accelerator mechanism, and import content in final goods. We estimate the model using Latvian data, study the new channels in the model, and provide a comprehensive analysis on the macroeconomic effects of the fiscal elements. Our results indicate that Latvian fiscal policy was pro-cyclical during the boom-bust period of 2004–2010 and that foreign ownership of public debt breaks Ricardian equivalence and raises fiscal multipliers.

Suggested Citation

  • Ginters Bušs & Patrick Grüning, 2023. "Fiscal DSGE model for Latvia," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 2173915-217.
    • Handle: RePEc:bic:journl:v:23:y:2023:i:1:p:2173915
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Small open economy; fiscal policy; fiscal rules; Bayesian estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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