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A finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models with an application to insurance ratemaking

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  • Bermúdez, Lluís
  • Karlis, Dimitris

Abstract

Bivariate Poisson regression models for ratemaking in car insurance have been previously used. They included zero-inflated models to account for the excess of zeros and the overdispersion in the data set. These models are now revisited in order to consider alternatives. A 2-finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models is used to demonstrate that the overdispersion in the data requires more structure if it is to be taken into account, and that a simple zero-inflated bivariate Poisson model does not suffice. At the same time, it is shown that a finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models embraces zero-inflated bivariate Poisson regression models as a special case. Finally, an EM algorithm is provided in order to ensure the models’ ease-of-fit. These models are applied to an automobile insurance claims data set and it is shown that the modeling of the data set can be improved considerably.

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  • Bermúdez, Lluís & Karlis, Dimitris, 2012. "A finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models with an application to insurance ratemaking," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(12), pages 3988-3999.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:56:y:2012:i:12:p:3988-3999
    DOI: 10.1016/j.csda.2012.05.016
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    7. Pechon, Florian & Denuit, Michel & Trufin, Julien, 2018. "Multivariate Modelling of Multiple Guarantees in Motor Insurance of a Household," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2018019, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    8. George Tzougas & Despoina Makariou, 2022. "The multivariate Poisson‐Generalized Inverse Gaussian claim count regression model with varying dispersion and shape parameters," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 25(4), pages 401-417, December.
    9. Lluís Bermúdez & Dimitris Karlis, 2022. "Copula-based bivariate finite mixture regression models with an application for insurance claim count data," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 31(4), pages 1082-1099, December.
    10. Gning, Lucien & Diagne, M.L. & Tchuenche, J.M., 2023. "Hierarchical generalized linear models, correlation and a posteriori ratemaking," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 614(C).
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    15. Počuča, Nikola & Jevtić, Petar & McNicholas, Paul D. & Miljkovic, Tatjana, 2020. "Modeling frequency and severity of claims with the zero-inflated generalized cluster-weighted models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 79-93.
    16. Bermúdez, Lluís & Guillén, Montserrat & Karlis, Dimitris, 2018. "Allowing for time and cross dependence assumptions between claim counts in ratemaking models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 161-169.
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    18. Tzougas, George & Makariou, Despoina, 2022. "The multivariate Poisson-Generalized Inverse Gaussian claim count regression model with varying dispersion and shape parameters," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117197, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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