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Dynamic economic modelling of crop rotations with farm management practices under future pest pressure

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  • Liu, Xing
  • Lehtonen, Heikki
  • Purola, Tuomo
  • Pavlova, Yulia
  • Rötter, Reimund
  • Palosuo, Taru

Abstract

Agricultural practice is facing multiple challenges under volatile commodity markets, inevitable climate change, mounting pest pressure and various other environment-related constraints. The objective of this research is to present a dynamic optimization model of crop rotations and farm management and show its suitability for economic analysis over a 30year time period. In this model, we include management practices such as fertilization, fungicide treatment and liming, and apply it in a region in Southwestern Finland. Results show that (i) growing pest pressure favours the cultivation of wheat-oats and wheat-oilseeds combinations, while (ii) market prices largely determine the crops in the rotation plan and the specific management practices adopted. The flexibility of our model can also be utilized in evaluating the value of other management options such as new cultivars under different projections of future climate and market conditions.

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  • Liu, Xing & Lehtonen, Heikki & Purola, Tuomo & Pavlova, Yulia & Rötter, Reimund & Palosuo, Taru, 2016. "Dynamic economic modelling of crop rotations with farm management practices under future pest pressure," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 65-76.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:144:y:2016:i:c:p:65-76
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2015.12.003
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    4. Yang, Xuan & Li, Zhou & Cui, Song & Cao, Quan & Deng, Jianqiang & Lai, Xingfa & Shen, Yuying, 2020. "Cropping system productivity and evapotranspiration in the semiarid Loess Plateau of China under future temperature and precipitation changes: An APSIM-based analysis of rotational vs. continuous syst," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    5. de Frutos Cachorro, Julia & Gobin, Anne & Buysse, Jeroen, 2018. "Farm-level adaptation to climate change: The case of the Loam region in Belgium," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 164-176.
    6. Zuzanna Sawinska & Stanisław Świtek & Romana Głowicka-Wołoszyn & Przemysław Łukasz Kowalczewski, 2020. "Agricultural Practice in Poland Before and After Mandatory IPM Implementation by the European Union," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-13, February.
    7. Song, Xiaoqing & Wang, Xiong & Hu, Shougeng & Xiao, Renbin & Scheffran, Jürgen, 2022. "Functional transition of cultivated ecosystems: Underlying mechanisms and policy implications in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    8. Jalloun, Rola Adnan Derweesh, 2022. "Knowledge, attitude and awareness of Saudi adults regarding organic food," African Journal of Food, Agriculture, Nutrition and Development (AJFAND), African Journal of Food, Agriculture, Nutrition and Development (AJFAND), vol. 22(01).
    9. Mandryk, Maryia & Reidsma, Pytrik & van Ittersum, Martin K., 2017. "Crop and farm level adaptation under future climate challenges: An exploratory study considering multiple objectives for Flevoland, the Netherlands," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 154-164.
    10. Purola, Tuomo & Lehtonen, Heikki, 2020. "Evaluating profitability of soil-renovation investments under crop rotation constraints in Finland," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    11. Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo & Jauhiainen, Lauri & Sorvali, Jaana, 2017. "Diversity of high-latitude agricultural landscapes and crop rotations: Increased, decreased or back and forth?," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 25-33.
    12. Purola, Tuomo & Lehtonen, Heikki & Liu, Xing & Tao, Fulu & Palosuo, Taru, 2018. "Production of cereals in northern marginal areas: An integrated assessment of climate change impacts at the farm level," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 191-204.
    13. Luz Maria Castro & Fabian Härtl & Santiago Ochoa & Baltazar Calvas & Leonardo Izquierdo & Thomas Knoke, 2018. "Integrated bio-economic models as tools to support land-use decision making: a review of potential and limitations," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 183-211, July.

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