IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agiwat/v229y2020ics0378377419312818.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cropping system productivity and evapotranspiration in the semiarid Loess Plateau of China under future temperature and precipitation changes: An APSIM-based analysis of rotational vs. continuous systems

Author

Listed:
  • Yang, Xuan
  • Li, Zhou
  • Cui, Song
  • Cao, Quan
  • Deng, Jianqiang
  • Lai, Xingfa
  • Shen, Yuying

Abstract

Agriculture in the semiarid region is undergoing radical changes driven by global warming and increasing incidences of extreme weather events. Predicting and evaluating the responses of crop yield and water use patterns of rainfed cropping systems according to future temperature and precipitation changes could provide important information regarding adoption of climate-smart farming systems that could offer great resilience and sustainability. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential changes in agronomic productivity, hydrological balance and economic profitability of cropping systems with perennial legumes and rotation on the Loess Plateau of China affected by different future temperature and precipitation scenarios using APSIM-based modeling. Five different cropping systems were investigated: (i) continuous maize (Zea mays) (M), (ii) continuous winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) (W), (iii) continuous lucerne (Medicago sativa) (L), (iv) maize-wheat-soybean (Gyleine max) rotation (MWS) and (v) lucerne (4-yr)-winter wheat (2-yr) rotation (LW) in Xifeng, Gansu, China. Five series of temperature and precipitation changes scenarios (no changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations were considered) based on RCPs (representative concentration pathways) were integrated into scenario simulations, including the baseline scenario (1980–2010), mid-century scenarios of RCP4.5 (M45) and RCP8.5 (M85), and end-century scenarios of RCP4.5 (E45) and RCP8.5 (E85). The results showed that, compared with baseline simulations, mean maize yield under RCPs decreased by 6.7 %–37.7 %, and the mean wheat yield decreased by 1.7 %–23.6 %. Lucerne yield consistently increased by 7.2 %–12.3 % under M45 and E45. Although different cropping systems affected the yield to a certain extent, only the difference between the wheat yields of W and MWS was significant (P < 0.05). On a cropping system level of every 6-yr (totally five phases for a scenario of 30-yr), the temperature and precipitation changes did not significantly affect plant transpiration (Tc) per phase. For all systems except L [which received its highest soil evaporation (Es) per phase in baseline], the greatest Es per phase was found in the E85. L tended to provide greater Tc per phase and evapotranspiration (ET) per phase (ranging from 1219 to 1332 mm and 2910–3034 mm, respectively), followed by LW. L and MWS presented the highest and lowest Es per phase (1636–1724 and 1592–1677 mm), respectively. The gross profit (GP per 6-yr phase) and water productivity (WP per 6-yr phase) of L were the greatest among all cropping systems (11.5–13.7 thousand US$ ha−1 per phase and 3.72–4.41 US$ ha-1 mm-1 per phase, respectively), followed by LW and MWS. For M, W and MWS, the GP per phase and the WP per phase were predicted to be greater under the baseline than under any of the RCPs, whereas M45 and E45 scenarios improved the GP per phase and WP per phase of L and LW compared with those of the baseline. In general, we advocate that LW-based systems have the greatest potential for producing acceptable yield and economic profit under future temperature and precipitation scenarios for this local environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Xuan & Li, Zhou & Cui, Song & Cao, Quan & Deng, Jianqiang & Lai, Xingfa & Shen, Yuying, 2020. "Cropping system productivity and evapotranspiration in the semiarid Loess Plateau of China under future temperature and precipitation changes: An APSIM-based analysis of rotational vs. continuous syst," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:229:y:2020:i:c:s0378377419312818
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2019.105959
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377419312818
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agwat.2019.105959?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liu, Xing & Lehtonen, Heikki & Purola, Tuomo & Pavlova, Yulia & Rötter, Reimund & Palosuo, Taru, 2016. "Dynamic economic modelling of crop rotations with farm management practices under future pest pressure," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 65-76.
    2. Smith, Alex & Snapp, Sieglinde & Dimes, John & Gwenambira, Chiwimbo & Chikowo, Regis, 2016. "Doubled-up legume rotations improve soil fertility and maintain productivity under variable conditions in maize-based cropping systems in Malawi," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 139-149.
    3. Yang, Xuan & Zheng, Lina & Yang, Qian & Wang, Zikui & Cui, Song & Shen, Yuying, 2018. "Modelling the effects of conservation tillage on crop water productivity, soil water dynamics and evapotranspiration of a maize-winter wheat-soybean rotation system on the Loess Plateau of China using," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 111-123.
    4. Amarasingha, R.P.R.K. & Suriyagoda, L.D.B. & Marambe, B. & Rathnayake, W.M.U.K. & Gaydon, D.S. & Galagedara, L.W. & Punyawardena, R. & Silva, G.L.L.P. & Nidumolu, U. & Howden, M., 2017. "Improving water productivity in moisture-limited rice-based cropping systems through incorporation of maize and mungbean: A modelling approach," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 111-122.
    5. Richard H. Moss & Jae A. Edmonds & Kathy A. Hibbard & Martin R. Manning & Steven K. Rose & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Timothy R. Carter & Seita Emori & Mikiko Kainuma & Tom Kram & Gerald A. Meehl & John F, 2010. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7282), pages 747-756, February.
    6. Shilong Piao & Philippe Ciais & Yao Huang & Zehao Shen & Shushi Peng & Junsheng Li & Liping Zhou & Hongyan Liu & Yuecun Ma & Yihui Ding & Pierre Friedlingstein & Chunzhen Liu & Kun Tan & Yongqiang Yu , 2010. "The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 467(7311), pages 43-51, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Massigoge, Ignacio & Carcedo, Ana & de Borja Reis, Andre Froes & Mitchell, Clay & Day, Scott & Oliverio, Joaquin & Truong, Sandra H. & McCormick, Ryan F. & Rotundo, Jose & Lira, Sara & Ciampitti, Igna, 2023. "Exploring avenues for agricultural intensification: A case study for maize-soybean in the Southern US region," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    2. Sietz, Diana & Conradt, Tobias & Krysanova, Valentina & Hattermann, Fred F. & Wechsung, Frank, 2021. "The Crop Generator: Implementing crop rotations to effectively advance eco-hydrological modelling," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Feng & Zhang, Wenjuan & Li, Ming & Zhang, Yuan & Li, Fengmin & Li, Changbin, 2017. "Is crop biomass and soil carbon storage sustainable with long-term application of full plastic film mulching under future climate change?," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 67-77.
    2. Lai, Chengguang & Chen, Xiaohong & Zhong, Ruida & Wang, Zhaoli, 2022. "Implication of climate variable selections on the uncertainty of reference crop evapotranspiration projections propagated from climate variables projections under climate change," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    3. Keke Li & Bofeng Cai & Zhen Wang, 2022. "Accessing the Climate Change Impacts in China through a Literature Mapping," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(20), pages 1-14, October.
    4. He, Liuyue & Xu, Zhenci & Wang, Sufen & Bao, Jianxia & Fan, Yunfei & Daccache, Andre, 2022. "Optimal crop planting pattern can be harmful to reach carbon neutrality: Evidence from food-energy-water-carbon nexus perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    5. Dutta, S. K & Laing, Alison M. & Kumar, S. & Gathala, Mahesh K. & Singh, Ajoy K. & Gaydon, D.S. & Poulton, P., 2020. "Improved water management practices improve cropping system profitability and smallholder farmers’ incomes," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    6. Cai, Yiyong & Newth, David & Finnigan, John & Gunasekera, Don, 2015. "A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 381-395.
    7. Ding, Yimin & Wang, Weiguang & Song, Ruiming & Shao, Quanxi & Jiao, Xiyun & Xing, Wanqiu, 2017. "Modeling spatial and temporal variability of the impact of climate change on rice irrigation water requirements in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 89-101.
    8. Bu, Lingduo & Chen, Xinping & Li, Shiqing & Liu, Jianliang & Zhu, Lin & Luo, Shasha & Lee Hill, Robert & Zhao, Ying, 2015. "The effect of adapting cultivars on the water use efficiency of dryland maize (Zea mays L.) in northwestern China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 1-9.
    9. Chateau, J. & Dellink, R. & Lanzi, E. & Magne, B., 2012. "Long-term economic growth and environmental pressure: reference scenarios for future global projections," Conference papers 332249, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. Wenfeng Chi & Yuanyuan Zhao & Wenhui Kuang & Tao Pan & Tu Ba & Jinshen Zhao & Liang Jin & Sisi Wang, 2021. "Impact of Cropland Evolution on Soil Wind Erosion in Inner Mongolia of China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-16, June.
    11. Gerald Nelson & Jessica Bogard & Keith Lividini & Joanne Arsenault & Malcolm Riley & Timothy B. Sulser & Daniel Mason-D’Croz & Brendan Power & David Gustafson & Mario Herrero & Keith Wiebe & Karen Coo, 2018. "Income growth and climate change effects on global nutrition security to mid-century," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 1(12), pages 773-781, December.
    12. Xu, Ying & Findlay, Christopher, 2019. "Farmers’ constraints, governmental support and climate change adaptation: Evidence from Guangdong Province, China," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 63(4), October.
    13. Nicole Costa Resende Ferreira & Jarbas Honorio Miranda, 2021. "Projected changes in corn crop productivity and profitability in Parana, Brazil," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 3236-3250, March.
    14. Jaewon Kwak & Huiseong Noh & Soojun Kim & Vijay P. Singh & Seung Jin Hong & Duckgil Kim & Keonhaeng Lee & Narae Kang & Hung Soo Kim, 2014. "Future Climate Data from RCP 4.5 and Occurrence of Malaria in Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, October.
    15. Joan Pau Sierra & Ricard Castrillo & Marc Mestres & César Mösso & Piero Lionello & Luigi Marzo, 2020. "Impact of Climate Change on Wave Energy Resource in the Mediterranean Coast of Morocco," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, June.
    16. Zhongen Niu & Huimin Yan & Fang Liu, 2020. "Decreasing Cropping Intensity Dominated the Negative Trend of Cropland Productivity in Southern China in 2000–2015," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-14, December.
    17. Marcinkowski, Paweł & Piniewski, Mikołaj, 2024. "Future changes in crop yield over Poland driven by climate change, increasing atmospheric CO2 and nitrogen stress," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    18. Henzler, Julia & Weise, Hanna & Enright, Neal J. & Zander, Susanne & Tietjen, Britta, 2018. "A squeeze in the suitable fire interval: Simulating the persistence of fire-killed plants in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem under drier conditions," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 389(C), pages 41-49.
    19. Yuhong Shuai & Liming Yao, 2021. "Adjustable Robust Optimization for Multi-Period Water Allocation in Droughts Under Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(12), pages 4043-4065, September.
    20. Abhiru Aryal & Albira Acharya & Ajay Kalra, 2022. "Assessing the Implication of Climate Change to Forecast Future Flood Using CMIP6 Climate Projections and HEC-RAS Modeling," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-22, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:229:y:2020:i:c:s0378377419312818. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agwat .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.