IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/ediscc/v5y2021i2d10.1007_s41885-021-00084-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Distributional Impact of Climate Change: Why Food Prices Matter

Author

Listed:
  • Eshita Gupta

    (Indian Statistical Institute
    Technical Director, KPMG)

  • Bharat Ramaswami

    (Ashoka University)

  • E. Somanathan

    (Indian Statistical Institute)

Abstract

We analyze the impact of agricultural productivity losses stemming from climate change in an economy without frictions. The first-order GDP impacts are expected to be small. But the poor have higher food budget shares and food prices will rise. How do distributional impacts diverge from the GDP impact? This is the question that is addressed. The paper considers two major sets of comparative statics: the effect of trade and the effect of economic growth. The model is calibrated to Indian data of 2009 and projections for 2030. The percentage loss of income for the landless is six times the GDP impact in a closed economy. Trade halves this effect and economic growth moderates it substantially. Despite the food price rise, nearly all farmers lose from climate change. The model is simple enough for impact channels to be transparent.

Suggested Citation

  • Eshita Gupta & Bharat Ramaswami & E. Somanathan, 2021. "The Distributional Impact of Climate Change: Why Food Prices Matter," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 249-275, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ediscc:v:5:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s41885-021-00084-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s41885-021-00084-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s41885-021-00084-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s41885-021-00084-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kym Anderson & Gordon Rausser & Johan Swinnen, 2013. "Political Economy of Public Policies: Insights from Distortions to Agricultural and Food Markets," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(2), pages 423-477, June.
    2. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production," Nature, Nature, vol. 527(7577), pages 235-239, November.
    3. Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Sanghi, Apurva, 2001. "The effect of development on the climate sensitivity of agriculture," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 85-101, February.
    4. Bosello, Francesco & Eboli, Fabio & Pierfederici, Roberta, 2012. "Assessing the Economic Impacts of Climate Change. An Updated CGE Point of View," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 121700, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    5. Roberto Roson & Dominique Van der Mensbrugghe, 2012. "Climate change and economic growth: impacts and interactions," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(3), pages 270-285.
    6. repec:hoo:wpaper:e-92-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Jacoby, Hanan & Rabassa, Mariano & Skoufias, Emmanuel, 2011. "Distributional implications of climate change in India," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5623, The World Bank.
    8. David Anthoff & Johannes Emmerling, 2019. "Inequality and the Social Cost of Carbon," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(2), pages 243-273.
    9. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1992. "Agricultural productivity, comparative advantage, and economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 317-334, December.
    10. Barbora Sedova & Matthias Kalkuhl & Robert Mendelsohn, 2020. "Distributional Impacts of Weather and Climate in Rural India," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 5-44, April.
    11. Huang, Hsin & von Lampe, Martin & van Tongeren, Frank, 2011. "Climate change and trade in agriculture," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(S1), pages 9-13.
    12. Hanan G. Jacoby & Mariano Rabassa & Emmanuel Skoufias, 2015. "Distributional Implications of Climate Change in Rural India: A General Equilibrium Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1135-1156.
    13. E. Somanathan & Rohini Somanathan & Anant Sudarshan & Meenu Tewari, 2021. "The Impact of Temperature on Productivity and Labor Supply: Evidence from Indian Manufacturing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(6), pages 1797-1827.
    14. Eswaran, Mukesh & Kotwal, Ashok, 1993. "A theory of real wage growth in LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 243-269, December.
    15. Nelson, Gerald C. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Palazzo, Amanda & Gray, Ian & Ingersoll, Christina & Robertson, Richard & Tokgoz, Simla & Zhu, Tingju & Sulser, Timothy B. & Ringler, Claudia & Msangi, Siwa & , 2010. "Food security, farming, and climate change to 2050: Scenarios, results, policy options," Research reports Gerald C. Nelson, et al., International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    16. Hertel, Thomas & Burke, Marshall & Lobell, David, 2010. "The Poverty Implications of Climate-Induced Crop Yield Changes by 2030," GTAP Working Papers 3196, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    17. Hertel, Thomas & Burke, Marshall & Lobell, David, 2010. "The Poverty Implications of Climate-Induced Crop Yield Changes by 2030," GTAP Working Papers 3196, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    18. Reilly, John & Hohmann, Neil, 1993. "Climate Change and Agriculture: The Role of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 306-312, May.
    19. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    20. Thomas W. Hertel & Stephanie D. Rosch, 2010. "Climate Change, Agriculture, and Poverty," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 32(3), pages 355-385.
    21. Lant Pritchett, Marla Spivack, 2013. "Estimating Income/Expenditure Differences across Populations: New Fun with Old Engel's Law-Working Paper 339," Working Papers 339, Center for Global Development.
    22. Skoufias, Emmanuel & Rabassa, Mariano & Olivieri, Sergio & Brahmbhatt, Milan, 2011. "The Poverty Impacts of Climate Change," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 51, pages 1-5, March.
    23. Arnaud Costinot & Dave Donaldson & Cory Smith, 2016. "Evolving Comparative Advantage and the Impact of Climate Change in Agricultural Markets: Evidence from 1.7 Million Fields around the World," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 205-248.
    24. Maximilian Auffhammer & V. Ramanathan & Jeffrey Vincent, 2012. "Climate change, the monsoon, and rice yield in India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 111(2), pages 411-424, March.
    25. Kalkuhl, Matthias & Wenz, Leonie, 2020. "The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    26. Francesco Bosello & Fabio Eboli & Roberta Pierfederici, 2012. "Assessing the Economic Impacts of Climate Change," Review of Environment, Energy and Economics - Re3, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, February.
    27. Roberto Roson & Dominique Van der Mensbrugghe, 2012. "Climate change and economic growth: impacts and interactions," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(3), pages 270-285.
    28. Skoufias, Emmanuel & Rabassa, Mariano & Olivieri, Sergio, 2011. "The poverty impacts of climate change : a review of the evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5622, The World Bank.
    29. -, 2009. "The economics of climate change," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38679, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    30. Solomon M. Hsiang & Kyle C. Meng & Mark A. Cane, 2011. "Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 476(7361), pages 438-441, August.
    31. Mukesh Eswaran & Ashok Kotwal & Bharat Ramaswami & Wilima Wadhwa, 2007. "How does poverty decline? Evidence from India, 1983-1999," Discussion Papers 07-05, Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Maureen Teresa Odongo & Roseline Nyakerario Misati & Anne Wangari Kamau & Kethi Ngoka Kisingu, 2022. "Climate Change and Inflation in Eastern and Southern Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-17, November.
    2. Shackleton, C.M. & Adeyemi, O. & Setty, S., 2024. "Why are non-wood forest products still the poor relative in Global Forest Resources Assessments?," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    3. Pal, Soumya, 2021. "Weather Shock, Agricultural Productivity and Infant Health: A Tale of Environmental Injustice," GLO Discussion Paper Series 965, Global Labor Organization (GLO).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter H. Howard & Thomas Sterner, 2017. "Few and Not So Far Between: A Meta-analysis of Climate Damage Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 68(1), pages 197-225, September.
    2. Rob Dellink & Elisa Lanzi & Jean Chateau, 2019. "The Sectoral and Regional Economic Consequences of Climate Change to 2060," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(2), pages 309-363, February.
    3. Undp, 2011. "HDR 2011 - Sustainability and Equity: A Better Future for All," Human Development Report (1990 to present), Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), number hdr2011, September.
    4. Richard S J Tol, 2018. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 4-25.
    5. Kym Anderson, 2016. "Agricultural Trade, Policy Reforms, and Global Food Security," Palgrave Studies in Agricultural Economics and Food Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-137-46925-0.
    6. Hjort, Ingrid, 2016. "Potential Climate Risks in Financial Markets: A Literature Overview," Memorandum 01/2016, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    7. Tol, Richard S.J., 2024. "A meta-analysis of the total economic impact of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    8. Tol, Richard S.J., 2019. "A social cost of carbon for (almost) every country," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 555-566.
    9. Gabriele Standardi, 2023. "Exploring market-driven adaptation to climate change in a general equilibrium global trade model," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 1-29, February.
    10. S. Nazrul Islam & John Winkel, 2017. "Climate Change and Social Inequality," Working Papers 152, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    11. Richard S. J. Tol, 2016. "The Impacts Of Climate Change According To The Ipcc," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(01), pages 1-20, February.
    12. Naser Amanzadeh & Toshi H. Arimura & Mohammad Vesal & Seyed Farshad Fatemi Ardestani, 2021. "The Distributional Effects of Climate Change:Evidence from Iran," RIEEM Discussion Paper Series 2007, Research Institute for Environmental Economics and Management, Waseda University.
    13. Feeny, Simon & Trinh, Trong-Anh & Zhu, Anna, 2021. "Temperature shocks and energy poverty: Findings from Vietnam," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    14. Richard S.J. Tol, 2018. "The impact of climate change and the social cost of carbon," Working Paper Series 1318, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    15. Richard S.J. Tol, 2016. "Dangerous Interference With The Climate System: An Economic Assessment," Working Paper Series 10016, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    16. Alejandro Lopez-Feldman, 2013. "Climate change, agriculture, and poverty: A household level analysis for rural Mexico," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1126-1139.
    17. Emediegwu, Lotanna E. & Wossink, Ada & Hall, Alastair, 2022. "The impacts of climate change on agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa: A spatial panel data approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    18. Richard Tol, 2015. "Bootstraps for Meta-Analysis with an Application to the Impact of Climate Change," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 46(2), pages 287-303, August.
    19. Wei Xie & Qi Cui & Tariq Ali, 2019. "Role of market agents in mitigating the climate change effects on food economy," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(3), pages 1215-1231, December.
    20. Dang, Hai-Anh H & Hallegatte, Stephane & Trinh, Trong-Anh, 2023. "Does Global Warming Worsen Poverty and Inequality? An Updated Review," IZA Discussion Papers 16570, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Distribution; Food prices; General equilibrium; India;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:ediscc:v:5:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s41885-021-00084-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.