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Stationary‐Increment Variance‐Gamma and t Models: Simulation and Parameter Estimation

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  • Richard Finlay
  • Eugene Seneta

Abstract

We detail a method of simulating data from long range dependent processes with variance‐gamma or t distributed increments, test various estimation procedures [method of moments (MOM), product‐density maximum likelihood (PMLE), non‐standard minimumχ2and empirical characteristic function estimation] on the data, and assess the performance of each. The investigation is motivated by the apparent poor performance of the MOM technique using real data (Tjetjep & Seneta, 2006); and the need to assess the performance of PMLE for our dependent data models. In the simulations considered the product‐density method performs favourably. Nous détaillons une méthode de simulation de données relatives à des processus à accroissements de lois Variance‐Gamma ou t. Nous testons sur ces données diverses procédures d'estimation (méthode des moments, maximum de vraisemblance, χ2 non standard minimum, et fonction caractéristique empirique) et nous évaluons la performance de chacune. Cette étude est motivée par le peu d'efficacité de la technique des moments appliquée à des données réelles (Tjetjep et Seneta 2006) et par le besoin d'évaluer la performance de la méthode du maximum de vraisemblance relative à une densité produit appliquée à nos modèles de données dépendantes. Dans les simulations que nous avons faites la méthode de la densité produit donne des résultats satisfaisants.

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  • Richard Finlay & Eugene Seneta, 2008. "Stationary‐Increment Variance‐Gamma and t Models: Simulation and Parameter Estimation," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 76(2), pages 167-186, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:istatr:v:76:y:2008:i:2:p:167-186
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1751-5823.2008.00044.x
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    1. Dilip B. Madan & Peter P. Carr & Eric C. Chang, 1998. "The Variance Gamma Process and Option Pricing," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 2(1), pages 79-105.
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    5. Madan, Dilip B & Seneta, Eugene, 1990. "The Variance Gamma (V.G.) Model for Share Market Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(4), pages 511-524, October.
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    1. Göncü, Ahmet & Karahan, Mehmet Oğuz & Kuzubaş, Tolga Umut, 2016. "A comparative goodness-of-fit analysis of distributions of some Lévy processes and Heston model to stock index returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 69-83.
    2. Thomas Fung & Eugene Seneta, 2010. "Modelling and Estimation for Bivariate Financial Returns," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 78(1), pages 117-133, April.
    3. Boris Buchmann & Benjamin Kaehler & Ross Maller & Alexander Szimayer, 2015. "Multivariate Subordination using Generalised Gamma Convolutions with Applications to V.G. Processes and Option Pricing," Papers 1502.03901, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2016.
    4. Fung, Thomas & Wang, Joanna J.J. & Seneta, Eugene, 2013. "Contaminated Variance–Mean mixing model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 258-267.
    5. Leonenko, N.N. & Petherick, S. & Sikorskii, A., 2012. "A normal inverse Gaussian model for a risky asset with dependence," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 109-115.
    6. Salem, Marwa Belhaj & Fouladirad, Mitra & Deloux, Estelle, 2022. "Variance Gamma process as degradation model for prognosis and imperfect maintenance of centrifugal pumps," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    7. Buchmann, Boris & Kaehler, Benjamin & Maller, Ross & Szimayer, Alexander, 2017. "Multivariate subordination using generalised Gamma convolutions with applications to Variance Gamma processes and option pricing," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 127(7), pages 2208-2242.
    8. Thanakorn Nitithumbundit & Jennifer S. K. Chan, 2020. "ECM Algorithm for Auto-Regressive Multivariate Skewed Variance Gamma Model with Unbounded Density," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 1169-1191, September.
    9. Finlay, Richard & Seneta, Eugene, 2012. "A Generalized Hyperbolic model for a risky asset with dependence," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(12), pages 2164-2169.
    10. Gian P. Cervellera & Marco P. Tucci, 2017. "A note on the Estimation of a Gamma-Variance Process: Learning from a Failure," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 49(3), pages 363-385, March.
    11. Boris Buchmann & Kevin W. Lu & Dilip B. Madan, 2018. "Calibration for Weak Variance-Alpha-Gamma Processes," Papers 1801.08852, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.
    12. Roberto Marfè, 2012. "A generalized variance gamma process for financial applications," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 75-87, June.
    13. Bartłomiej Bollin & Robert Ślepaczuk, 2020. "Variance Gamma Model in Hedging Vanilla and Exotic Options," Working Papers 2020-31, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    14. Loregian, Angela & Mercuri, Lorenzo & Rroji, Edit, 2012. "Approximation of the variance gamma model with a finite mixture of normals," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 217-224.
    15. Barsotti, Flavia & Viva, Luca Del, 2015. "Performance and determinants of the Merton structural model: Evidence from hedging coefficients," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 95-111.
    16. Thomas Fung & Joanna J.J. Wang & Eugene Seneta, 2014. "The Deviance Information Criterion in Comparison of Normal Mixing Models," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 82(3), pages 411-421, December.
    17. Boris Buchmann & Kevin W. Lu & Dilip B. Madan, 2019. "Calibration for Weak Variance-Alpha-Gamma Processes," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 1151-1164, December.

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