IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecofin/v36y2016icp69-83.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A comparative goodness-of-fit analysis of distributions of some Lévy processes and Heston model to stock index returns

Author

Listed:
  • Göncü, Ahmet
  • Karahan, Mehmet Oğuz
  • Kuzubaş, Tolga Umut

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the goodness-of-fit of three Lévy processes, namely Variance-Gamma (VG), Normal-Inverse Gaussian (NIG) and Generalized Hyperbolic (GH) distributions, and probability distribution of the Heston model to index returns of twenty developed and emerging stock markets. Furthermore, we extend our analysis by applying a Markov regime switching model to identify normal and turbulent periods. Our findings indicate that the probability distribution of the Heston model performs well for emerging markets under full sample estimation and retains goodness of fit for high volatility periods, as it explicitly accounts for the volatility process. On the other hand, the distributions of the Lévy processes, especially the VG and NIG distributions, generally improves upon the fit of the Heston model, particularly for developed markets and low volatility periods. Furthermore, some distributions yield to significantly large test statistics for some countries, even though they fit well to other markets, which suggest that properties of the stock markets are crucial in identifying the best distribution representing empirical returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Göncü, Ahmet & Karahan, Mehmet Oğuz & Kuzubaş, Tolga Umut, 2016. "A comparative goodness-of-fit analysis of distributions of some Lévy processes and Heston model to stock index returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 69-83.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:36:y:2016:i:c:p:69-83
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2015.12.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940815001266
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.najef.2015.12.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dilip B. Madan & Peter P. Carr & Eric C. Chang, 1998. "The Variance Gamma Process and Option Pricing," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 2(1), pages 79-105.
    2. Jeanne, Olivier & Masson, Paul, 2000. "Currency crises, sunspots and Markov-switching regimes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 327-350, April.
    3. Richard Finlay & Eugene Seneta, 2008. "Stationary‐Increment Variance‐Gamma and t Models: Simulation and Parameter Estimation," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 76(2), pages 167-186, August.
    4. Adrian Dragulescu & Victor Yakovenko, 2002. "Probability distribution of returns in the Heston model with stochastic volatility," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(6), pages 443-453.
    5. Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2007. "Empirical Evidence on Student-t Log-Returns of Diversified World Stock Indices," Research Paper Series 194, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    6. Christie, Andrew A., 1982. "The stochastic behavior of common stock variances : Value, leverage and interest rate effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 407-432, December.
    7. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
    8. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
    9. Blattberg, Robert C & Gonedes, Nicholas J, 1974. "A Comparison of the Stable and Student Distributions as Statistical Models for Stock Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(2), pages 244-280, April.
    10. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    11. Elisa Luciano & Marina Marena & Patrizia Semeraro, 2013. "Dependence Calibration and Portfolio Fit with FactorBased Time Changes," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 307, Collegio Carlo Alberto, revised 2015.
    12. Kim, In Joon & Kim, Sol, 2004. "Empirical comparison of alternative stochastic volatility option pricing models: Evidence from Korean KOSPI 200 index options market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 117-142, April.
    13. Elisa Luciano & Patrizia Semeraro, 2010. "A Generalized Normal Mean-Variance Mixture For Return Processes In Finance," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(03), pages 415-440.
    14. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-343.
    15. Silva, A.Christian & Yakovenko, Victor M., 2003. "Comparison between the probability distribution of returns in the Heston model and empirical data for stock indexes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 303-310.
    16. Mikhail Chernov & A. Ronald Gallant & Eric Ghysels & George Tauchen, 1999. "A New Class of Stochastic Volatility Models with Jumps: Theory and Estimation," CIRANO Working Papers 99s-48, CIRANO.
    17. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. Gilles Daniel & Nathan Joseph & David Bree, 2005. "Stochastic volatility and the goodness-of-fit of the Heston model," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 199-211.
    19. Scott, Louis O., 1987. "Option Pricing when the Variance Changes Randomly: Theory, Estimation, and an Application," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(4), pages 419-438, December.
    20. Kevin Fergusson & Eckhard Platen, 2006. "On the Distributional Characterization of Daily Log-Returns of a World Stock Index," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 19-38.
    21. Andreas Behr & Ulrich Pötter, 2009. "Alternatives to the normal model of stock returns: Gaussian mixture, generalised logF and generalised hyperbolic models," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 49-68, January.
    22. Praetz, Peter D, 1972. "The Distribution of Share Price Changes," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(1), pages 49-55, January.
    23. Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. "The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June.
    24. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    25. Heston, Steven L & Nandi, Saikat, 2000. "A Closed-Form GARCH Option Valuation Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(3), pages 585-625.
    26. E. Eberlein & F. zkan, 2003. "Time consistency of Levy models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 40-50.
    27. Madan, Dilip B & Seneta, Eugene, 1990. "The Variance Gamma (V.G.) Model for Share Market Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(4), pages 511-524, October.
    28. Elton A. Daal & Dilip B. Madan, 2005. "An Empirical Examination of the Variance-Gamma Model for Foreign Currency Options," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(6), pages 2121-2152, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Till Massing, 2019. "What is the best Lévy model for stock indices? A comparative study with a view to time consistency," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 33(3), pages 277-344, September.
    2. Gong, Xiao-Li & Xiong, Xiong, 2021. "Multi-objective portfolio optimization under tempered stable Lévy distribution with Copula dependence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    3. Ricardo Crisóstomo, 2017. "Speed and biases of Fourier-based pricing choices: Analysis of the Bates and Asymmetric Variance Gamma models," CNMV Working Papers CNMV Working Papers no. 6, CNMV- Spanish Securities Markets Commission - Research and Statistics Department.
    4. Endres, Sylvia & Stübinger, Johannes, 2018. "A flexible regime switching model with pairs trading application to the S&P 500 high-frequency stock returns," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 07/2018, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    5. Massing, Till & Ramos, Arturo, 2021. "Student’s t mixture models for stock indices. A comparative study," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 580(C).
    6. Marc Ditzhaus & Daniel Gaigall, 2022. "Testing marginal homogeneity in Hilbert spaces with applications to stock market returns," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 31(3), pages 749-770, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Henri Bertholon & Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro, 2006. "Pricing and Inference with Mixtures of Conditionally Normal Processes," Working Papers 2006-28, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    2. Göncü, Ahmet & Yang, Hao, 2016. "Variance-Gamma and Normal-Inverse Gaussian models: Goodness-of-fit to Chinese high-frequency index returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 279-292.
    3. Yeap, Claudia & Kwok, Simon S. & Choy, S. T. Boris, 2016. "A Flexible Generalised Hyperbolic Option Pricing Model and its Special Cases," Working Papers 2016-14, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    4. Renata Rendek, 2013. "Modeling Diversified Equity Indices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 23, July-Dece.
    5. López Martín, María del Mar & García, Catalina García & García Pérez, José, 2012. "Treatment of kurtosis in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(5), pages 2032-2045.
    6. Jonathan Ziveyi, 2011. "The Evaluation of Early Exercise Exotic Options," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 12, July-Dece.
    7. Kim, In Joon & Kim, Sol, 2004. "Empirical comparison of alternative stochastic volatility option pricing models: Evidence from Korean KOSPI 200 index options market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 117-142, April.
    8. Sol Kim, 2021. "Portfolio of Volatility Smiles versus Volatility Surface: Implications for pricing and hedging options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(7), pages 1154-1176, July.
    9. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Volatility Forecasting," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    10. Renata Rendek, 2013. "Modeling Diversified Equity Indices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 4-2013, January-A.
    11. Jonathan Ziveyi, 2011. "The Evaluation of Early Exercise Exotic Options," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2-2011, January-A.
    12. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 777-878, Elsevier.
    13. Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," Papers 95.400, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
    14. Giulia Di Nunno & Kk{e}stutis Kubilius & Yuliya Mishura & Anton Yurchenko-Tytarenko, 2023. "From constant to rough: A survey of continuous volatility modeling," Papers 2309.01033, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    15. Gonçalo Faria & João Correia-da-Silva, 2014. "A closed-form solution for options with ambiguity about stochastic volatility," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 125-159, July.
    16. David Edelman & Thomas Gillespie, 2000. "The Stochastically Subordinated Poisson Normal Process for Modelling Financial Assets," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 100(1), pages 133-164, December.
    17. Lasko Basnarkov & Viktor Stojkoski & Zoran Utkovski & Ljupco Kocarev, 2019. "Option Pricing With Heavy-Tailed Distributions Of Logarithmic Returns," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(07), pages 1-35, November.
    18. Chen, An-Sing & Leung, Mark T., 2005. "Modeling time series information into option prices: An empirical evaluation of statistical projection and GARCH option pricing model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 2947-2969, December.
    19. Carr, Peter & Wu, Liuren, 2007. "Stochastic skew in currency options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 213-247, October.
    20. Chang, Carolyn W. & S.K. Chang, Jack & Lim, Kian-Guan, 1998. "Information-time option pricing: theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 211-242, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:36:y:2016:i:c:p:69-83. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.